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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Haven;t really been following this one. Last I looked it seemed like a very minor event but now seems like advisory level snow is possible for NYC Metro?
  2. HVSnowLover
    Yes parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and even the southern Bronx are very concrete but nothing is like midtown or downtown Manhattan.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Seems urban vs rural made the biggest difference in this storm.
  4. HVSnowLover
    I imagine there are places in the northern Bronx already around or over 6 inches.
  5. HVSnowLover
    About 5-6 inches here I'd say. Amazing looking at some of the reports north of here. Euro was awful.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Often time colder comes with flatter, verbatim still a nice 3-6 inch event but wonder how much sticks if there isn't intense rates.
  7. HVSnowLover
    NAM maybe a tick more amped? Actually I think its not but the precip looks a bit more organized.
  8. HVSnowLover
    I mean in fairness this has been one of the most extreme last minute trends I can remember (especially south).
  9. HVSnowLover
    HRRR looks lousy unless you live in NJ.
  10. HVSnowLover
    We've had fast movers with cold air rushing in perform well before. I agree though this is probably around 5-6 inches most areas but I think some places in the metro might get 6-10.
  11. HVSnowLover
    Pretty decent tick north and juiced compared to 12Z. Looks in line with other guidance now.
  12. HVSnowLover
    I don't look at 10:1 maps but even the Kuchera maps are showing significant snow now for NYC and points south of NYC. I think people are underestimating how dynamic this storm could be. If the dynamics target Coastal NJ they get raked. It's about where the dynamics are in my opinion more than what temps are at the start of the storm.
  13. HVSnowLover
    The plus side of the south trend is it might be almost all snow from the get go which would help with accumulations.
  14. HVSnowLover
    LI is in a good spot. NYC probably in a good spot although concern is if the best dynamics are SE of NYC then NYC would deal with white rain due to UHI.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Truthfully you probably don't want to see mostly snow down to near ACY like the RAP is showing if you want big snows NYC area. This will have a pretty narrow axis of heaviest snow I think.
  16. HVSnowLover
    18z gfs is actually ever so slightly south of the previous run but still a great hit.
  17. HVSnowLover
    Looks like a March storm but I guess with marginal surface temps they are maybe expecting it to be more like a March storm where UHI makes a difference.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Wow actually upped totals in Westchester. They must think the south trend is a bit overdone?
  19. HVSnowLover
    I've The storm is happening overnight at this point so a trend that dramatic is unlikely. At most this shifts far enough north to hit both the metro and up to I84.
  20. HVSnowLover
    18z NAM and RGEM both south of their 12z runs but still good for NYC metro.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Wiggle room north yes, wiggle room south not much. It's unreal how dramatic the shift has been.
  22. HVSnowLover
    Now he seems to be indicating this will miss NYC to the south.
  23. HVSnowLover
    I'd be surprised if anyone hits 10 inches at this point but if anyone does it would probably be the north shore of Suffolk.
  24. HVSnowLover
    RGEM basically jackpots NYC. Definitely less amplified than yesterday but don't think anyone would complain about 6+ inches
  25. HVSnowLover
    I know I wasn't referring to you. I meant the 10:1 maps that are showing 12+, the surface will be too warm in the areas with best dynamics. I agree 6-12 is reasonable somewhere within 30 miles either direction of the city.
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