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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    The south trend is making 12+ amounts anywhere unlikely. I think the high end is probably 8-10 for the jackpot area which would still be a really nice storm.
  2. HVSnowLover
    Yea I'm still not overly worried about surpression especially for anyone SE of Orange county but can't say it's not at least a possibility.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Verbatim yes it's a great look. The worry is it trends toward the Euro. I'm not that worried at this point though.
  4. HVSnowLover
    That might be an indicator the south tick is legit since I believe HRRR had been one of the more NW models?
  5. HVSnowLover
    Yea basically. Don't really like the trends at all but again there might be too much Euro hugging on here. Most other models still have the best dynamics right over the metro and the best snows still just NW of the city.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Whether it sticks or not depends on rates. If it's heavy the temp will drop and it'll paste everywhere. If it's light it'll be white rain. It's most important to be in the best dynamics.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Would be amazing if after all this time this misses to the south and hammers Coastal NJ while NYC see's light white rain. I just don't see it happening though but have to keep on eye on this trend.
  8. HVSnowLover
    Aren't globals less reliable than mesos at this range? Also the Euro has definitely busted cold/south before. I'm not saying it's not a possibility but it seems extreme. It's crazy that less than 24 hours out we have such model disagreement.
  9. HVSnowLover
    If the Euro is right a lot of forecasts will bust badly especially for northern zones. I think the Euro is too far south though when comparing it to all the other models.
  10. HVSnowLover
    The north shore of LI up into SNE could get really rocked as this bombs out.
  11. HVSnowLover
    Given what Upton is forecasting in their high end totals it's still hard for me to see them jumping to a WSW but i guess we'll find out. Right now they don't even have places just NW like NE NJ, Southern Westchester, CT Coast under anything so they seem to be going really conservative.
  12. HVSnowLover
    I think if 0Z Euro looks like the other models NYC will be under a WWA by the morning.
  13. HVSnowLover
    1010 wins calling for up to an inch in the city. If the latest models are right they'll be way off....
  14. HVSnowLover
    If the low stays south of ACY and is that strong it will snow for most of the subforum. We'll see.
  15. HVSnowLover
    The airmass is one concern but could be overcome with the right track and dynamics, to me the bigger concern is if we get a late north tick in the track of the primary.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Yes there could still be a tick in either direction another 30-50 miles since we are still over 24 hours out. Unfortunately it's usually a late tick north with these. I'd want to be 30+ miles north of where the models have the gradient now to feel too comfortable.
  17. HVSnowLover
    Is December 19 2008 a good analog for this storm? I know we live in a warmer world now.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Verbatim it's starting to look really promising especially for northern NYC/northern LI but we've seen this song and dance so many times and I am fearful of the typical north bump at the last minute.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Seems they expect it to bump back north a little tomorrow and the gradient to be around I287 as opposed to the models pulling it down to I80 today. Unfortunately they may be right
  20. HVSnowLover
    18z GFS is south of it's previous run for sure.
  21. HVSnowLover
    The warm biased RGEM showing big snows into parts of the city is a flag this may be the real deal but it's also a very close call as the gradient just south of the city is very sharp.
  22. HVSnowLover
    Barring another north shift (definitely possible) this is probably the most significant snowfall SE of I287 in 2 years. Strong off shore low, no mid and upper level temp problems. The only issue is surface but that could be overcome with good rates.
  23. HVSnowLover
    The euro is enough to put I80 through the immediate northern suburbs in the game. NYC would need a bit of a tick south but the bigger question is this a wobble or a trend?
  24. HVSnowLover
    Agree it does look trickier for the above region than I initially thought. The gradient should be somewhere near I80 latitude and then ENE of there if the current track holds.
  25. HVSnowLover
    This actually could be a JFK 1 inch, HPN 6 inch type storm. The upper levels are fine so the small differences in surface immediate coast vs just inland could make a difference.
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