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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Not sure why so much fretting over temps, cold air in place for once and not a particularly amped storm. Haven't followed all the details super closely with this one but seems like a general 2-4 inches for almost the whole subforum, maybe a bit more NW and a bit less SE but I don't think drastic differences.
  2. HVSnowLover
    Weak storms without big temp gradients probably a lot easier to forecast than stronger storms.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Right but in this particular case what would be driving a warm layer unless it's amped and close to the coast? If the low is well offshore and not that strong I don't see why there would be a warm layer.
  4. HVSnowLover
    I'd rather have 20s and two light snow events than single digits and dry anyway (I know the second event of the week may not even be that light or happen at all) but saying hypothetically if it panned out as modeled this would be an ideal winter week imo.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Could be wrong but I think in this case RGEM/NAM are too amped and still out of their best range for Tuesdays storm (RGEM is always warm biased and NAM has been a terrible model for a while). I think this is almost all snow for everyone maybe lower ratios or a bit of sleet mixed in on the immediate coast.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Nice winter week coming up it seems. A light snow event with cold to keep it on the ground and then possibly a second snow event at the end of the week.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Models still a little all over the place in terms of where the most snow will be but seems 1-4 inches area wide is likely a good call at this point.
  8. HVSnowLover
    There is understandable frustration given what has been experienced for the last year and a half of winter but this storm isn't over and even if it fails winter isn't over.
  9. HVSnowLover
    Not sure when the 18z GFS became such an important run. Wait for the 0z runs and the full range of guidance and if there is agreement before determining likely outcomes. I agree if most models are not on board by 0Z tonight the chances of something are a lot lower although still could change even up to around 48 hours out with these type of events.
  10. HVSnowLover
    All we need is the Ukie and Euro to meet in the middle and most of this subforum will be quite happy.
  11. HVSnowLover
    12Z Euro decent improvement. All 4 major models now have at least 1 inch of snow for CPK by Tuesday.
  12. HVSnowLover
    It has at least 0.1 qpf for CPK with temps in the 20s. That should be enough to get rid of the streak. Given temps it's probably like the old days 2-4 inches I95 corridor changing to sleet and then rain with lower amounts SE of there.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Yes even the warm ukie is still a few inches for NYC. Every model except Euro threatens the Central Park snow drought.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Ukie beat out the CMC for more amped. The differences between the Ukie and Euro are incredible for 96 hours out.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Despite what we have seen the past few winters I'm more worried about OTS than mixing with this storm. The only way I can see temps/precip type an issue if the storm comes in really fast and amped like the CMC before the cold is entrenched.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Was your point that it is colder?
  17. HVSnowLover
    Yea the differences between the Euro and CMC are pretty laughable and it's not even fantasy range anymore. We are talking like 96 hours out on the CMC the storm would start.
  18. HVSnowLover
    The euro is not what it used to be. This could go either way.
  19. HVSnowLover
    It's more like at least 8-12 inches for most of the subforum. Maybe a little sleet mixing in but temps never go above 30. Either way it's definitely the most amped of any model currently and is an outlier for now.
  20. HVSnowLover
    Seems there is discrepancy between the timing and which wave models are focusing on. It seems to me if it's faster than the cold is less entrenched so less risk of surpression but more risk of too warm and if it's a later wave the cold is more entrenched and the risk is surpression.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Pretty confident that the record at CPK will end by the end of the month. Whether it be next Tue or sometime shortly after. The cold appears to finally be coming back for real.
  22. HVSnowLover
    The storm next weekend looks potentially interesting for the interior portions of the subforum if it transfers early enough. After that maybe the coast can get some real chances but I'll also believe it when I see it.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Guess snowman19 was right. No one in Westchester or Rockland 6+ at least based on that map.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Steady light to moderate snow here. Sticking to grass, cartops, and roof tops.
  25. HVSnowLover
    Now lightening up again and mixing with rain. Got to see a whitened ground at least.
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