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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    If you are right near the coast you probably want the dry slot otherwise as you said any snow that falls will just be washed away.
  2. HVSnowLover
    Oddly RGEM upped totals for Baltimore and Philly but decreased for NYC. Hopefully it's playing catchup?
  3. HVSnowLover
    Terrible things anywhere near the coast https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2024010518&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  4. HVSnowLover
    RGEM (running now) probably more important than the GFS at this point.
  5. HVSnowLover
    HRRR basically all snow to dry slot. Best case scenario for I95 region through northern LI.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Quite possibly too cold but temps decent at precip onset on the NAM from northern parts of NYC on north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010518&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  7. HVSnowLover
    The NAM is not a good model but this is why this is still a tricky forecast between I95 and I287. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010518&fh=51&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam
  8. HVSnowLover
    More for some, less for others. The bigger snow line did seem to come Southeast.
  9. HVSnowLover
    I guess it's not. They seemed to also lower totals a little compared to the last time I looked.
  10. HVSnowLover
    The point and click for HPN is 3-6 inches. Yonkers is 2-4 inches. Would expect advisories soon for the southern part of the county.
  11. HVSnowLover
    NWS is pretty bullish for Westchester and Rockland compared to recent model trends.
  12. HVSnowLover
    How come the model precip type outputs don't match the soundings?
  13. HVSnowLover
    Probably more rain but thanks for bringing it to our attention. Looks like potentially 3 big storms in a week and something at least to track.
  14. HVSnowLover
    I guess the only silver lining of tomorrows storm being less snow is no rapid snow melt concerns except for far northern areas of the subforum.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Does anyone have an updated snowfall forecast map? I'd imagine it'd be a bit less than yesterday based on the latest guidance.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Yea it's got 4 inches liquid equivalent of snow for north shore of Nassau but surface temps are like 36 so take it with a grain of salt.
  17. HVSnowLover
    It is but that is the bulk of it. I updated my post to post the map at 54 hours which is when it's basically done for our region.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Euro, seems less of a gradient in our region and big snows mostly even farther NW than before. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  19. HVSnowLover
    Yea last year north Bronx got like 5 inches when Central Park measured I think like 1 during the only snow event last year. I doubt that happens this time but NYC is big. The western Bronx and upper Manhattan are more hilly than the rest of the city which I guess helps in addition to being slightly further from the Atlantic.
  20. HVSnowLover
    I don’t put as much stock in the euro as I used to especially this short range but sure it’d be nice if it’s not disastrous near the coast.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Again not saying this will happen but just hypothetically in a setup like this 2 hours of heavy snow would produce more accumulation than 6 hours of light snow so for me it's less about how fast it changes over and more how heavy the precip is when it is snowing.
  22. HVSnowLover
    I could see 2 inches in Van Cortlandt Park but idk if that is an official site.
  23. HVSnowLover
    I think people are missing the point though. No one is saying those numbers are accurate but also saying it's almost all rain when it's showing 4 inches liquid equivalent of snow is also not accurate. Anyway I think 1-3 for northern parts of the city is the best case scenario here regardless.
  24. HVSnowLover
    How come 10 miles west of Boston is so much bigger a difference in these storms than 10 miles north or west of NYC? Is it because of the latitude?
  25. HVSnowLover
    The track is definitely a problem on the Canadian models. That's not a NYC benchmark track and theres a reason LI is in the 40s and pouring. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Look at the difference in low placement on the GFS and the best dynamics going right over the city. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see how people are saying track isn't part of the problem. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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