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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Front end almost always works out better near the coast than backend anyway. Backend is generally a myth unless you have an actual strong coastal. My expectations aren't high for this by any means but some of the posts are too simplistic imo saying no where in or near NYC has a chance of a decent event. It's all about intensity and timing.
  2. HVSnowLover
    I certainly am not expecting anything close to 5 inches but I'm just saying if the precip came in as heavy as the gfs is depicting a front end thump is not out of the question even in parts of the 5 boroughs. If it's light it will be 35-36 and a mix or white rain but if heavy and with evap cooling 33-34 is plenty fine to accumulate at night.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Can't the tappan zee get congested during rush hour?
  4. HVSnowLover
    It has 4 inches in the Bronx in like 3 hours. I'm sure it's wrong anyway but if you are lower then 35 with those rates at night it could pile up fast.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Not terrible even for NYC but will have to come in like a wall like GFS is showing. if it's weak forget it. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  6. HVSnowLover
    Also some models were taking this down to sub 990 earlier in the week, now it has weakened.
  7. HVSnowLover
    The GFS is actually show a pretty impressive thump for a few hours for the places cold enough to be all snow.
  8. HVSnowLover
    I could see elevation having influence for sure but not sure if it’ll be that elevation dependent at least for the more northern areas. Surface seems pretty cold everywhere especially north of 84 but as you said I could even see places in upper Westchester like Yorktown/Peekskill seeing 6+.
  9. HVSnowLover
    Agree the main storm is sat night. The backend Sunday stuff will mainly be a thing north of our region imo.
  10. HVSnowLover
    I think <1 inch for most of the city/LI is a good call. Maybe 1-3 if lucky north of the cross Bronx and then west of I95 in NJ. 3-6 around 287 corridor. 6+ past there.
  11. HVSnowLover
    I’m looking at kuchera maps. Temps 35-36 in the city no way it’s 10:1. It was a very slight improvement. It does show CPK at 0.6 with kuchera.
  12. HVSnowLover
    12z RGEM about the same as past few runs. RGEM is usually a good predictor of the worst case scenario but also way closer to reality than the NAM/GFS.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Seems every storm the past few winters has trended back to the 90s and brings back frustrating memories. I don’t live where I want to live but living at the bottom of Westchester is still better than growing up in Queens. I agree I expect about 1-2 inches of slop here but better than a total blanking I guess.
  14. HVSnowLover
    I get what you are saying I think? But the surface low still seems to kind of hug the coast up to SNJ before it shunts east?
  15. HVSnowLover
    Yea that’s fair with a better airmass this is 1-3 snow to sleet back to snow for NYC/Coast which is better than what will likely happen with this storm.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Tough call for sure along I287 corridor. Lean that’s the dividing line between nuisance event and bigger snows. No surprise as that’s how it often is.
  17. HVSnowLover
    When it snows big time in upstate and central NE it rarely snows big time at the coast. The low is too close to the coast hence pumping warm air in Sat night. The track is the bigger issue than the airmass imo.
  18. HVSnowLover
    I’m reading these posts and yes the lack of cold air is definitely a problem but it’s January and you don’t need an amazing airmass. The bigger problem is storm track too close to the coast. If it tracked further SE the best dynamics would be near the coast and it would be snow.
  19. HVSnowLover
    I honestly don’t even bother with the NAM anymore.
  20. HVSnowLover
    Yea it hasn’t changed drastically although the overnight runs were definitely not the right direction for anyone SE of I287. The big snows will be NW of the Tappan Zee which has kind of been the expectation for days now but I would still not expect a total blanking though for northern NYC on north.
  21. HVSnowLover
    I think those are the most borderline areas in terms of could get anywhere from nothing to 6 inches.
  22. HVSnowLover
    It basically flipped flopped with the rgem.
  23. HVSnowLover
    If last winter is any indication this is over for anyone SE of 95 and is not looking good for anyone SE of I287. The rgem/cmc combo was deadly last year but this a new season so we’ll see.
  24. HVSnowLover
    RGEM has the rain/snow line over the east river but shows mid 30s up to 287 so this would not cut it for the immediate metro area.
  25. HVSnowLover
    RGEM likely gonna be warm near the coast I think.
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