HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Euro did well overall though leading the way with the offshore track instead of inland runner most other models were showing. It was too likely cold in the short range.
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The coast may have more problems due to the track, clearly no issue with cold air moving in with this one as we see how fast the interior is cooling.
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Rain/snow line does look further SE than RGEM had it at this time.
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Storm not over yet but agree it's looking that way for the coast.
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The 0Z RGEM still doesn't flip the city until 18Z (1 pm) and NYC seems to barely go to all snow before precip lightens up.
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Final Call (definitely a tricky forecast but with so much uncertainty have to go with climo) Most of NYC/LI <1 North and West of the GWB 1-3 North and West of TPZ- 3-6 Near I84- 6-8
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Thats 3 models now showing 6+ for sloatsburg.
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NAM still thumps interior hard although backed down near the coast
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I'm really confused how the two strongest Mesos this winter (RGEM and HRRR) are so far apart on this right now.
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Yep and DC/Philly could get more snow than NYC in this type of setup
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Depends what you mean by we. If you are in the poconos than definitely, if you are in Long Island then Philly would hit freezing before NYC/LI in this setup.
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Could be a model glitch especially since it's the gfs lol but the gradient could also be that tight.
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Unfortunately thats the model I trust most right now but I do think it might be a bit overdone with how long the warm air hangs on.
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It will warm up on the initial SE wind before it cools back down.
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He also treats it as if everyone is expecting a blizzard. I think most people know this is a 1-3 inch event for NYC and immediate suburbs at best but we still track because we like snow and it's the last winter storm of the season.
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Weren't you hugging the 18Z NAM yesterday that was showing like no snow anywhere SE of the catskills.
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I actually deleted my post because I realize it was off topic but thanks for clarifying. I guess if we are counting snow inside of a park I could see that. Also last Feb was a bit unusual as we had a very active pattern and multiple snowstorms in the city in Feb.
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I only have access to Euro 10:1 snowmaps, would imagine ratios would be higher inland as Euro is very cold.
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Euro not backing down from the colder solution
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I have a different take, most places south or east of NYC are at or above seasonal averages. NYC could get closer to seasonal averages if they can get a few inches out of this.
