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snowman19

February 2021

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Aside from the lack of extreme cold here, this winter has some storm track and storm strength similarities to 93-94, and precip type variability like that season too.  I'd say this winter was a weird mix of 93-94 and 06-07.  Both of those winters had snow or sleet events in March, so I'd say there is some hope for us to get to 40" even at JFK.  One 6" event will do it.  I dont think we'll get an April event this year as this is a 11 yr hot summer cycle and these usually start heating up in April but I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with a 4-8 inch snowfall at any point in March.

Wait 1977 had the May snow and was part of the 11 yr hot summer cycle so I guess anything's possible (even though that summer wasn't really hot, it had an extreme 2 week stretch when it hit 104 in late July, our 2nd hottest NYC temp on record, later tied in late July 2011.)

 

 

 

 

 

This was a really unusual winter with the strong blocking displaced so far south. You can see how much warmer the US average temperature was than the 09-10 winter which was the last time we had a -1 or lower AO for all 3 winter months. So that resulted in the more tucked in storm track with the ridging and record warm SSTs east of New England.

B4805648-56EB-49C0-919B-265D66D1DAE6.thumb.png.4309cc855ef726081756fcebd3c1b9c2.png

38341C80-0225-453C-8408-DA1DA6D15232.png.a1afaffc1bac0d5f303cbaefca3f3d83.png

 

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Morning thoughts...

Rain will arrive today. It will also be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 47°

Rain will end tomorrow and it will be milder for a time. However, a brief shot of colder air will pour into the region later in the day.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably not since the easterly flow was so strong with that event.

easterly flow was so strong with that storm it pushed the rain / snow line past State College

pics below from Manasquan following that storm, worst winter nor'easter for the upper NJ coast whereas MAR 1962 is the benchmark for the SNJ coast

img145.thumb.jpg.25daee53ee4e335ce4081bf3ec07f357.jpg

img139.thumb.jpg.afce446ecff8407a5d09826d4f340379.jpg

img128.thumb.jpg.388dfe7ac5fc908b84d1ab2495334dcd.jpg

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very unusual to get a snowy winter with such a tucked in storm track. This is only the 3rd time since 1996 that EWR had near 10” or more of snow than ISP or BNL. I use BNL before 2010 due to missing ISP snowfall data. This winter featured the record south based blocking and record warm SSTs east of New England. So this allowed the ridge to build east of New England with storm tracks very close to Southern NJ. Most other years we had more of a benchmark storm track further east favoring Suffolk over Newark.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Islip Snowfall 
Newark Snowfall 
2021-04-30 33.5 45.7
2020-04-30 6.8 6.9
2019-04-30 12.8 22.0
2018-04-30 65.9 39.4
2017-04-30 39.3 30.0
2016-04-30 41.4 32.8
2015-04-30 63.7 46.4
2014-04-30 63.7 61.1
2013-04-30 46.9 29.5
2012-04-30 4.7 8.8
2011-04-30 55.3 68.2
2010-04-30 53.8 47.9
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Newark Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
BNL  LI Snowfall
2009-04-30 27.1 43
2008-04-30 14.6 11.5
2007-04-30 16.5 9.5
2006-04-30 37.9 30.5
2005-04-30 43.4 78.5
2004-04-30 47.8 60.2
2003-04-30 53.1 62.1
2002-04-30 3.6 5.5
2001-04-30 39.3 51.2
2000-04-30 18.4 14.0
1999-04-30 12.8 23.0
1998-04-30 6.9 4.5
1997-04-30 16.3 18.0
1996-04-30 78.4 90.7

 

 

 

Yes-crazy that I have 40” for the season when a chunk of each significant event was sleet and rain. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yes-crazy that I have 40” for the season when a chunk of each significant event was sleet and rain. 

This is also the first time that Allentown had nearly 25” more than Suffolk since the snowfall increase in 2002-2003.


Islip snowfall 2010-2021 and BNL 2003-2009

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
ISP/BNL  
2021-04-30 58.1 33.5
2020-04-30 5.3 6.8
2019-04-30 32.1 12.8
2018-04-30 49.9 65.9
2017-04-30 28.3 39.3
2016-04-30 36.2 41.4
2015-04-30 50.1 63.7
2014-04-30 68.1 63.7
2013-04-30 21.4 46.9
2012-04-30 12.0 4.7
2011-04-30 38.9 55.3
2010-04-30 59.8 53.8
2009-04-30 24.1 43.0
2008-04-30 21.2 11.5
2007-04-30 23.0 9.5
2006-04-30 32.5 30.5
2005-04-30 42.3 78.5
2004-04-30 39.3 66.2
2003-04-30 54.4 62.1
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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Aside from the lack of extreme cold here, this winter has some storm track and storm strength similarities to 93-94, and precip type variability like that season too.  I'd say this winter was a weird mix of 93-94 and 06-07.  Both of those winters had snow or sleet events in March, so I'd say there is some hope for us to get to 40" even at JFK.  One 6" event will do it.  I dont think we'll get an April event this year as this is a 11 yr hot summer cycle and these usually start heating up in April but I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with a 4-8 inch snowfall at any point in March.

Wait 1977 had the May snow and was part of the 11 yr hot summer cycle so I guess anything's possible (even though that summer wasn't really hot, it had an extreme 2 week stretch when it hit 104 in late July, our 2nd hottest NYC temp on record, later tied in late July 2011.)

wasn't really hot?...three heat waves peaking over 100 degrees...21 0f 29 days above 90 with four of those over 100...the thing about that summer was it was very dry...some cool nights as a result...not like todays sona every night...

 

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, uncle W said:

 

Wait 1977 had three heat waves peaking over 100 degrees?

 

Oh I wasn't talking about 1966, I wish I was alive then that would've been my favorite summer of all time (before 2010 of course.)

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is also the first time that Allentown had nearly 25” more than Suffolk since the snowfall increase in 2002-2003.


Islip snowfall 2010-2021 and BNL 2003-2009

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
ISP/BNL  
2021-04-30 58.1 33.5
2020-04-30 5.3 6.8
2019-04-30 32.1 12.8
2018-04-30 49.9 65.9
2017-04-30 28.3 39.3
2016-04-30 36.2 41.4
2015-04-30 50.1 63.7
2014-04-30 68.1 63.7
2013-04-30 21.4 46.9
2012-04-30 12.0 4.7
2011-04-30 38.9 55.3
2010-04-30 59.8 53.8
2009-04-30 24.1 43.0
2008-04-30 21.2 11.5
2007-04-30 23.0 9.5
2006-04-30 32.5 30.5
2005-04-30 42.3 78.5
2004-04-30 39.3 66.2
2003-04-30 54.4 62.1

I would bet it's the first time since 1993-94 which was their record winter.

 

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19 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

easterly flow was so strong with that storm it pushed the rain / snow line past State College

pics below from Manasquan following that storm, worst winter nor'easter for the upper NJ coast whereas MAR 1962 is the benchmark for the SNJ coast

img145.thumb.jpg.25daee53ee4e335ce4081bf3ec07f357.jpg

img139.thumb.jpg.afce446ecff8407a5d09826d4f340379.jpg

img128.thumb.jpg.388dfe7ac5fc908b84d1ab2495334dcd.jpg

also probably the worst noreaster of all time for NYC and Long Island.

Although I think 1888 and 1922 might also be in the running.

 

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It took an AO drop under -5 to get only the 4th colder winter month since December 2015. This was the first 6 winter  stretch with an average temperature of 36.0° or warmer. So the warmer than average winter run since 15-16 continues.


NYC

Dec 15....+13.3

Jan 16....+1.9

Feb 16....+2.4

Dec 16....+0.8

Jan 17....+5.4

Feb 17....+6.3

Dec 17....-2.5

Jan 18.....-0.8

Feb 18....+6.7

Dec 18....+2.6

Jan 19....-0.1

Feb 19....+0.9

Dec 19....+0.8

Jan 20....+6.5

Feb 20....+4.8

Dec 20.....+1.7

Jan 21.....+2.2

Feb 21.....-1.1

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Departure
2020-2021 36.1 +1.0
2019-2020 39.2 +4.1
2018-2019 36.3 +1.2
2017-2018 36.2 +1.1
2016-2017 39.3 +4.2
2015-2016 41.0 +5.9
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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It took an AO drop under -5 to get only the 4th colder winter month since December 2015. This was the first 6 winter  stretch with an average temperature of 36.0° or warmer. So the warmer than average winter run since 15-16 continues.


NYC

Dec 15....+13.3

Jan 16....+1.9

Feb 16....+2.4

Dec 16....+0.8

Jan 17....+5.4

Feb 17....+6.3

Dec 17....-2.5

Jan 18.....-0.8

Feb 18....+6.7

Dec 18....+2.6

Jan 19....-0.1

Feb 19....+0.9

Dec 19....+0.8

Jan 20....+6.5

Feb 20....+4.8

Dec 20.....+1.7

Jan 21.....+2.2

Feb 21.....-1.1

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2020-2021 36.1 0
2019-2020 39.2 0
2018-2019 36.3 0
2017-2018 36.2 0
2016-2017 39.3 0
2015-2016 41.0 0

I dont think this will ever change regardless of what ENSO state we're in.

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think this will ever change regardless of what ENSO state we're in.

 

The new 30 year climate normals are scheduled to come out this spring. It looks like the NYC 1981-2010 DJF average of 35.1° is set to rise closer to 36.0° for 1991-2020. But the NCDC has the final say since they look for any possible errors in the raw data.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new 30 year climate normals are scheduled to come out this spring. It looks like the NYC 1981-2010 DJF average of 35.1° is set to rise to around 36.0° for 1991-2020. But the NCDC has the final say since they look for any possible errors in the raw data.

which decade has represented the greatest rise in temperatures, Chris? was it this one? I mean this most recent one that ended

 

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

which decade has represented the greatest rise in temperatures, Chris? was it this one?

 

Based on the raw numbers it’s this last decade. Looks like December will see the greatest temperature rise. But the exact numbers will have to wait until the raw data goes through quality control.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data

Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States.

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new 30 year climate normals are scheduled to come out this spring. It looks like the NYC 1981-2010 DJF average of 35.1° is set to rise closer to 36.0° for 1991-2020. But the NCDC has the final say since they look for any possible errors in the raw data.

The new snow fall totals should rise from near 26 inches to 30 inches, also.

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2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The new snow fall totals should rise from near 26 inches to 30 inches, also.

This is the summary from NOAA:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/Upcoming-NOAA-2020-Climate-

Calculating the New Climate Normals

Palecki emphasized that NOAA’s Normals are rather complicated sets of calculations, not just simple averages. These calculations fill in missing data using surrounding weather stations and ensure that daily Normals match monthly Normals. They also remedy discrepancies that might arise when stations change locations.

In this next round of Climate Normals, new things will be added—including several small changes to how NCEI calculates them.

“Our main methodologies have not changed since the last Normals cycle,” Palecki said. “But minor improvements have been made in how we round numbers, calculate percentiles, count the numbers of days exceeding thresholds, and format output.”

todayAlso, for the first time, this updated batch of Normals will include 15-year Normals for those needing a climatology representing a period closer to today. NOAA will also release high spatial resolution monthly Normals data for the conterminous U.S., as well as develop new tools and methods to access the data.

 

These new Normals are a better baseline for today’s climate, helping inform activities in many economic sectors,” Palecki added. “Interestingly, this shift will result in there being fewer ‘above normal’ temperature days in most of the U.S. at the start of this decade compared to recent years that used the previous Normals cycle. Climate will continue to change in the U.S. during this decade, however, so we will need to do this again in 2031.”

Once the new NOAA Normals are released in May 2021, they will be available to the public from NCEI.

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Based on the raw numbers it’s this last decade. Looks like December will see the greatest temperature rise. But the exact numbers will have to wait until the raw data goes through quality control.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data

Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States.

So the actual numbers never seem to rise as much as the decade to decade change.  I wonder if at some point the 30 yr norms will rise at a heightened pace.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the summary from NOAA:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/Upcoming-NOAA-2020-Climate-Normals

Calculating the New Climate Normals

Palecki emphasized that NOAA’s Normals are rather complicated sets of calculations, not just simple averages. These calculations fill in missing data using surrounding weather stations and ensure that daily Normals match monthly Normals. They also remedy discrepancies that might arise when stations change locations.

In this next round of Climate Normals, new things will be added—including several small changes to how NCEI calculates them.

“Our main methodologies have not changed since the last Normals cycle,” Palecki said. “But minor improvements have been made in how we round numbers, calculate percentiles, count the numbers of days exceeding thresholds, and format output.”

For the first time, this updated batch of Normals will include 15-year Normals for those needing a climatology representing a period closer to todayAlso, for the first time, this updated batch of Normals will include 15-year Normals for those needing a climatology representing a period closer to today. NOAA will also release high spatial resolution monthly Normals data for the conterminous U.S., as well as develop new tools and methods to access the data.

“These new Normals are a better baseline for today’s climate, helping inform activities in many economic sectors,” Palecki added. “Interestingly, this shift will result in there being fewer ‘above normal’ temperature days in most of the U.S. at the start of this decade compared to recent years that used the previous Normals cycle. Climate will continue to change in the U.S. during this decade, however, so we will need to do this again in 2031.”

Once the new NOAA Normals are released in May 2021, they will be available to the public from NCEI.

I saw a map on TV that showed where snowfall had risen, where it had stayed the same and where it had decreased.  It seemed to coincide with similar rises and falls in total annual precipitation- where it snows of course.

 

 

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It looks as though the 1990s were an exceptionally warm decade as the 2000s were colder than the 1990s as far as winter goes. This could slow the 30 year average winter gain in temperature when they calculate the 2030 new figures.

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