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snowman19

February 2021

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

In a week from now we turn the page onto February....discuss.....

Lots of blocking.  February is gonna rock :bike:

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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

In a week from now we turn the page onto February....discuss.....

Euro day 8/9

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On 1/24/2021 at 4:25 PM, Rjay said:

Euro day 8/9

Even if it’s near impossible while wearing the “M” crown, please never lose your sense of humor. With nothing else to hold onto, we have that.

 

On 1/24/2021 at 4:06 PM, Rjay said:

Lots of blocking.  February is gonna rock :bike:

As always .......

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Not starting a thread yet for Feb 5-8, but it looks sort of interesting to me with a short spurt of very cold air arriving from the west atop a deep snow cover. Maybe we finally get below 14F NYC? Could be one or two short and light wintry events in our area, especially w-n of NYC.  

 

In the meantime, there was some talk about the NAM going away. NOT til at least 2023 when the NAM, HRRR, SREF get subsumed or replaced in other FV3 core upgrades.  This from NCEP and a recent presentation. 

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On 1/24/2021 at 8:06 AM, snowman19 said:

In a week from now we turn the page onto February....discuss.....

 

On 1/24/2021 at 4:25 PM, Rjay said:

Euro day 8/9

Lol

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32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Time to watch the storm next weekend 

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Reminds me of the old days, Ant, when we got a rash of storms over a few weeks.  Deep winter.

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January ended at 34.8[+2.2] with 2.1" of snow, a full 2.0" of that from current storm.

The first 8 days of February are averaging 28degs.(23/33), or -5.0.

Models say anywhere from 10" to 20" still to go on current storm.

28*(93%RH) here at 6am/7am.  Light snow at best,calm.    P>   29.91"     28*/29* at  9am with moderate, blowing snow, P>29.88".     33*   P>29.61" by 6pm.

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Morning thoughts...

A major perhaps borderline historic snowstorm (top 20 or above) is developing.

Select snowfall amounts around the New York City area include:

Islip: 2.9”

New York City-JFK: 4.6”

New York City-LGA: 4.1”

New York City-NYC: 5.3”

Newark: 5.2”

Syosset (1 N): 5.4”

This is just the beginning. In its most recent mesoscale discussion, the SPC observed:

The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east to west

   band of moderate to heavy precipitation forming from eastern

   Pennsylvania eastward to south of Long Island. The band is

   developing to the north of a deepening surface low, in response to

   an increase in isentropic ascent due to the approach of an

   upper-level low in the central Appalachians. In addition, increased

   low-level flow and strong divergence aloft will aid the continued

   development of moderate to heavy precipitation this morning.

   Snowfall rates are expected to increase into the 1 to 2 inch per

   hour range over the next few hours as the east-to-west band moves

   slowly northward across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey,

   far southeast New York, Long Island and far southern New England.

   Snowfall rates are forecast to gradually increase through the

   morning approaching peak intensity in the early afternoon.

The heaviest snow will likely fall from late morning until early this evening. Blizzard conditions are possible in some areas. Temperatures will top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 34°

Light snow and snow showers will likely continue tomorrow. Some additional accumulations are possible.

This storm will very likely join the 10 one-foot or larger snowstorms that have blanketed New York City since 2000. Six of those storms dumped 18” or more snow. Those 10 storms were:

December 30, 2000: 12.0”

February 16-17, 2003: 19.8”

December 5-7, 2003: 14.0”

January 22-23, 2005: 13.8”

February 11-12, 2006: 26.9”

February 25-26, 2010: 20.9”

December 26-27, 2010: 20.0”

January 26-27, 2011: 19.0”

February 13-14, 2014: 12.5”

January 22-24, 2016: 27.5”

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9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

As crazy it sounds the storm on the 12z ecm for next weekend might give the current storm a run for it’s money!

this storm was not you:re powerful classic northeaster

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First time this winter that the EPS weeklies corrected colder the closer we got to the forecast period.

 

Feb 1-8

EB3FE570-8B4F-442E-B26F-AB1B24BC19A2.thumb.png.c4dc3332d3d34914d951e4898a5d9ca8.png
 

Feb 8-15

 

61FDF2CB-9E1C-449E-A1F7-439B7D53C6DA.thumb.png.c914a37beedc23821feac50a9646cf5b.png

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looks like this is the beginning of another climate change snow blitz

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2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

As crazy it sounds the storm on the 12z ecm for next weekend might give the current storm a run for it’s money!

At first I thought you were exaggerating but I see what you mean!! 

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32 minutes ago, uncle W said:

as I thought February will become the coldest month and snowiest month this winter...uness March continues the onslaught...

Hope you’re right about coldest.  Snowiest Is now in the bank!

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13 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Hope you’re right about coldest.  Snowiest Is now in the bank!

my analogs were colder in Feb and the long range looks good...blocking looks good too...January averaged 34.8 in NYC...its not that hard to beat...

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Regardless if next week's Euro storm happens or not the coldest airmass of the season is likely to follow.

Single digits possible.

Today's widespread snows will help too.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Regardless if next week's Euro storm happens or not the coldest airmass of the season is likely to follow.

Single digits possible.

Today's widespread snows will help too.

The storm is this weekend 

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DON'T GET SCARED.        THIS IS NOT NYC.        THIS IS FOR DUBUQUE, IOWA.   -31F!     CHICAGO IS  ABOUT AS COLD WITH LESS SNOW HOWEVER.      We might get to +5 if we are fortunate.       Other T's    Minneapolis 6 days of sub-zero highs in a row.    Tallahasse  25    Atlanta 10

Polar Vortex Workout----Part 2?

1612202400-tDNQaXvSIhQ.png

 

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5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

As crazy it sounds the storm on the 12z ecm for next weekend might give the current storm a run for it’s money!

You have now entered the Twilight Zone............

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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Much of New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York State, and southwestern Connecticut picked up a foot or more of snow today. Numerous locations reported 16"-24" figures.

Overnight and tomorrow, the storm responsible will slowly move away from the region. Additional periods of light snow are possible tomorrow with some minor accumulations.

Somewhat milder air will return to the region by midweek. However, another shot of cold air is possible during the weekend. Moreover, EPS ensemble members are increasingly clustering around February 7-8 for another possible snow event.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +4.08 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.496.

On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.160 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.360.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first week of this month.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 16.4" snow.

 

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No change to the 2/6-9 thread.  Not starting anything for 2/11-12, 2/14 but more opportunities in some of the ensembles. A nice start to Feb, which tends to have our biggest snowstorms according to a number of sources including Kocin-Uccellini and Stu Astro quoted from an email exchange on another forum yesterday.

 

From Louis Uccellini and Stu Ostro below (excerpts) of an email discussion on another forum. 

 

So Paul (who also grew up on LI hearing the same thing) and I explored this in our Climatology Chapter (Chapter 2) in the Northeast Snowstorm monograph.  The monthly distributions for snowfall greater than 4" and snowfall greater than 12" in Fig 2-11 on page 25 for 5 cities.  From DC to Boston, all 5 cities show a Feb max for greater than 12" with less obvious maxima for the second category: greater than 4".  Our review for the 1949 through 1999 is consistent with your more extensive analysis.  We also included this finding in our summary (pp 233-234) that February is indeed the month for the "big snows" in the major metropolitan areas along the East Coast.  Really glad to see that you have mined the RSI data over the same period and really nailed the magnitude of this signal.  Would also like to know where you plan on publishing these results in case Paul and I ever get back to updating the monograph.

Also should note here that we analyzed the background "climate" signals for the big snows along the East Coast in Chapter 2.  We emphasized there that the NAO was the only climate/larger scale index that showed a large correlation (and significant) with East Coast Snows; especially south of Boston/New England area.  The negative NAO is a useful signal to track as that type of pattern appears to effectively lock in the cold air needed along the coastal plains; and also lends itself to a split flow regime upwind that not only sets up the ingredients for these storms but does so in a slower mode (Heaviest snows usually associated with slower moving storms).  Lastly I should note that last winter was not so good for us as the NAO remained positive the entire winter! 

From Stu Ostro below plus his RSI graph. 

 
I've now updated the numbers to include the most recent years and plotted all categories and all regions using the RSI data from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/societal-impacts, using storm start dates.
 
Since there are far fewer high-end storms and thus for different categories bars on a graph would be very different heights if using pure numbers, for apples-to-apples with all categories on the same graph I plotted percentages -- the bars represent the % of storms which have occurred in each particular month.  
 
Here are the interesting results!
  • The pronounced February peak in the Northeast is consistent across all categories, except for Cat 1.  This Feb peak is even more remarkable given that it's the shortest month (in this quick-and-dirty analysis I haven't adjusted to normalize for number of days in each month).   
  • A Feb peak also shows up in high-category storms in the South and Southeast (while recognizing a much smaller sample size of them). 
  • Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest and nationally, the seasonal peak is more consistent with that of temperatures, with January showing up here here as well as being the climatologically coldest month.
  • Although the Northern Rockies/Plains region doesn't include Colorado, the late season peak that's recognized in places such as Denver shows up here, in fact into April.

Screen Shot 2021-02-02 at 6.06.57 AM.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 30degs. (24/36), or -3.0.

Still several snow chances, so maybe another 6" to 12" during next two weeks after today.

Apparently for NYC, storm total was               2.0"+14.8" + ? = 16.8", up to midnight, 6 hours ago.

Unless another 20"+ potential starts showing up (and they are regular fare around here since 1996) the T's will be the big story.     The Back 9 Days to the above 8 days is averaging 21degs.(15/27), or -13.     That is uncorrected, despite GFS' tendency to be too high here.

To get D,J,F to go negative, February needs to be  > -4.3.        It is off to a good start.       About -7 or -8 by the 19th.

1612245600-1uZ3p80A8XU.png

32*(98%RH) here at 6am.   P> 29.44"        33*  P> 29.41" by Noon.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:
Here are the interesting results!
  • The pronounced February peak in the Northeast is consistent across all categories, except for Cat 1.  This Feb peak is even more remarkable given that it's the shortest month (in this quick-and-dirty analysis I haven't adjusted to normalize for number of days in each month).   
  • A Feb peak also shows up in high-category storms in the South and Southeast (while recognizing a much smaller sample size of them). 
  • Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest and nationally, the seasonal peak is more consistent with that of temperatures, with January showing up here here as well as being the climatologically coldest month.
  • Although the Northern Rockies/Plains region doesn't include Colorado, the late season peak that's recognized in places such as Denver shows up here, in fact into April.

Walt, excellent post as usual. This is a map illustrating the February peak in Northeast snowstorms. The other thing that stands out in the research  you provided is the historic number of storms during the last 15 years. The 51 Northeast snowstorms is off the charts counting all months in the snowfall season.

2006-2007 to 2020-2021.....51 storms

1991-1992 to 2005-2006.....30  storms

1975-1976 to 1990-1991.....25  storms 

1960-1961 to 1974-1975......24 storms

1945-1946 to 1959-1960..... 20 storms
 

 

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