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ORH_wxman

Dec 16-17 obs/nowcast thread

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Figured I'd start this up....snow won't start in our forum until this evening (perhaps as early as 4-5pm in far SW CT)

image.png.59b21035799403d085510412c2c5b20e.png

 

 

Dec16_9amRadar.gif

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Look at that -32 in Canada on the map of morning observations Will posted . Wow

That was the first thing I noticed on that map

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Look at that -32 in Canada on the map of morning observations Will posted . Wow

Serious arctic airmass..no joke this time. Unlike 10 days ago when we were hoping for the storm to make its own cold air.
 

We primed. 

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44 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Nowcast: the Merrimack Valley porkage is going to be awesome to behold. Melts all up and down 495.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. 

Someone"melting" on 495 after learning Box has downgraded the forecast to 2-4 for the Merrimack  Valley area......

599b76d9ed9bcc124de83717cd7ed07f.jpg

 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Serious arctic airmass..no joke this time. Unlike 10 days ago when we were hoping for the storm to make its own cold air.
 

We primed. 

This is a terrible track for most storms in SNE unless you have an arctic airmass with a 1040H just to our north. If not this would have been a rainer, or a a quick burst of snow--->rain scenario.

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Yeah... looks like there's some question as to cold air supply in this - seems at 20/6 as an average BL precondition from EWR to BOS... we're in trouble -

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Models latest snow output maps show that the H5 shortwave actually stays in tact and does not get shredded like they had two days ago!

Less shredded than the C's defense last night? lol

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... looks like there's some question as to cold air supply in this - seems at 20/6 as an average BL precondition from EWR to BOS... we're in trouble -

Suns out!! Its going to warm the ground and the strong sun this time of year will kill any accumulation  chances :( 

 

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21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Suns out!! Its going to warm the ground and the strong sun this time of year will kill any accumulation  chances :( 

 

it wouldn't shock me if even down there in interior/S NJ they have to go over to an advisory ... I bet they bullet nuggets in sideways rattle in undercutting cold bust - this high just can't be more instructively placed for dictating model error - ...

look at Will's obs up there and it's cold in place, and integrated into back-built air mass that is endlessly supplying - when any pressure falls start occurring the coastal barrier jet will only intensify and bust everyone cold that is already in it -

You're talking 12 F DP at TTN ...and it's only colder and deeper in the supply region... and judging by those wind flags, the llv barrier flow has already set up anyway - 

Probably a good time to point out that the lower 100 mb of the atmosphere is very difficult to resolve for even SREF meshing...

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