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WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

But, but, but, the NAM said 50 inches of CCB snows for Camp David! They were gonna get pummeled!

That was also the 3k. No words can express how badly it did with this storm. The 12k is another matter

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Got 4" here before the change over. 4" of snow is way better on the ground than on a snow map lol. All sleet and zr here now.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Enjoy it man. Might top 20 inches this winter if it all works out for you.

No one cares that you see 150+ inches of snow a year in New Hampshire. You’re mad. Clearly. And if you’re not, you’re just a being a giant peen for the hell of it. Cut it out man. The only thing you seem to do is reply to people’s OBS and talk smack. Everyone knows we live in a borderline climo. Nobody actually thought it would snow 50” at camp David — that was a clown map on a model 3-4 days out.  Relax chief.  
 

anyway.. back to the snow -

29 degrees 

heavy snow 

over 6” 

 

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1 hour ago, a.salt said:
 Mesoscale Discussion 1854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia...northern
   Virginia...western Maryland...and central to eastern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 161857Z - 170000Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour are expected
   to increase in coverage through the mid to late afternoon hours
   across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snowfall will likely
   continue into the overnight hours for portions of
   eastern/northeastern Pennsylvania.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to gradually increase in
   coverage across much of the Mid-Atlantic region within a broad swath
   of strong warm air advection between 850-700 mb (per recent RAP
   soundings and mesoanalysis). Mixed precipitation types continue to
   be reported within the precipitation transition zone along the
   Roanoke to Fredericksburg, VA line. While a wintry mix, including
   pockets of freezing rain, will continue in the near term, this zone
   should become more limited spatially through the mid/late afternoon
   hours. Further north, moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates
   have been observed (as evidenced by visibility reductions to
   one-quarter mile and observed snow rates around 2 inches per hour
   for some locations in northeast WV). 

   Heading through the afternoon, the low that is currently advancing
   northward along the Carolina coast will continue to deepen. As this
   occurs, mid-level winds will strengthen and begin to tighten the
   850-700 mb baroclinic zone and augment warm advection across the
   region. As isentropic and frontogenetical lift increase, snowfall
   rates will see a corresponding uptick in intensity. Lift within the
   dentritic growth zone and weak instability closer to the coast will
   help further augment snowfall rates. Widespread snowfall rates above
   1 inch per hour over the region are likely, and the potential for
   widespread snowfall rates exceeding two inches per hour will
   increase through 00 UTC as the potential for organized
   frontogenetical/deformation-driven snow bands increases.

mcd1854.gif

Why does that remind me of ....

 

 

 

 

c0481846-wuhan_novel_coronavirus_illustration-spl.jpg

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Back to moderate snow with really heavy returns to the south. About to get crushed again. Looks like ZR is Harrisonburg but snow in Mount Jackson still. That should be really good for us up here. I dont even care if I flip at this point. I am going to end up with over 8 inches for sure. And have already passed all of last years snow. 

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Just drove from extreme western loudoun to Dulles. All snow at home (800ft) and started to encounter mixing sleet in between round hill and purcellville. Leesburg was steady sleet and by the time I got to Dulles, it's all rain. 

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Back to moderate snow with really heavy returns to the south. About to get crushed again. Looks like ZR is Harrisonburg but snow in Mount Jackson still. That should be really good for us up here. I dont even care if I flip at this point. I am going to end up with over 8 inches for sure. And have already passed all of last years snow. 

That's awesome!! Really glad you guys are getting a huge hit out of this, radar looks loaded out there

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19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Snowing the heaviest it has all day in Westminster. 

It sure is. Just finished first shovel shift on driveway and it was completely covered again when we are done.

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9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

No one cares that you see 150+ inches of snow a year in New Hampshire. You’re mad. Clearly. And if you’re not, you’re just a being a giant peen for the hell of it. Cut it out man. The only thing you seem to do is reply to people’s OBS and talk smack. Everyone knows we live in a borderline climo. Nobody actually thought it would snow 50” at camp David — that was a clown map on a model 3-4 days out.  Relax chief.  
 

anyway.. back to the snow -

29 degrees 

heavy snow 

over 6” 

 

The snow ball busters dont like being called so and stomp off but always come back. Big hissy I’m gone  from last night already back spreading malaise 

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8 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Why does that remind me of ....

 

 

 

 

c0481846-wuhan_novel_coronavirus_illustration-spl.jpg

Why is my area in there?  Someone got happy with the Mario paint feature.  Pretty sure I’m not going back to snow.  

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14 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

I’d rather have zr than sleet personally. Way cooler

In some cases, like if tempts are low to mid 20s zrain can be good but having heavy zrain with marginal temps will amount to nothing and actually warm up ground temps, whereas heavy sleet will still accumulate and will turn into a glacier after a hard freeze. 

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Well look who's #1 in the region for reported snow amounts!

02:50 pm EST - 12/16/2020    2 E STEPHENS CITY, VA    6.4
02:51 pm EST - 12/16/2020    1 SSW MARTINSBURG, WV    6
02:24 pm EST - 12/16/2020    4 ENE WINCHESTER, VA    6
02:45 pm EST - 12/16/2020    2 N POINT OF ROCKS, MD    5.8
02:20 pm EST - 12/16/2020    1 NNW BERRYVILLE, VA    5.5

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