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forkyfork

September 2020 wx discussion

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4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I wonder if the smokey sky will keep night time temps a few degrees higher and put a cap on day temps.

I know a smokey sky can keep temps down during the day but does it affect outgoing radiation.?

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

a cbw radar loop right now shows southward moving echoes 

 

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-CBW-N0Q-20200915-0202-24-100.gif

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The next 8 dys are averaging 65degs.     Make it 60degs., or about -8.

55*!!!(50%RH) here at 6am, clear of clouds-but not really clear due to smoke from West Coasts fires?       60* by  10am.      63* by Noon.

GFS remains w/o rain around here for 8 days at least.       It probably would take more than the last 10 runs added together, to reach the normal 2.1" for a 16 day period.   

The Tropics:      19N 30W,   14N 46W,    37N 61W,    28.3N 88.2W(I always get where I am going).

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Good Tuesday morning everyone:

Sally fringe rain, closest pass may be delayed til Fri night-Saturday? and most 00z/15 models cut the northern fringe below our NYC area forum. However, NAEFS/EPS still give us a chance though with a slight southward trend since yesterday at this time. 

SMOKE: That I think is our primary visual interest the next 3 days. No change form the HRRR modeled heavy concentrations graphics posted last evening, near 15000 feet today. Have added the 1000 ft concentration for 06z/Thursday, implying a small concentration of the smoke may be getting closer to ground level in parts of the northeast during Thursday? Also added the vertical concentration for that time, which keeps us in the smoke plume, probably through the day Thursday. Finally, a cross section, for 06z Thursday near NYC, showing that most of the smoke is above 5000 feet. 

NAEFS (no image due to D10 uncertainty) vicinity the 25th: appears a bit QPF active off the east coast.  653A/15

 

Screen_Shot_2020-09-15_at_6_31.48_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-09-15_at_6_34.12_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 6.54.35 AM.png

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Could be the first September under 70° in NYC since 2014. A +2 in September for NYC is 70°. So anything below that will do it.


D45B2E8C-0D2A-47A9-B679-48BE03AABFEE.thumb.png.8f71601175c6f1aed601098750d545d0.png

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Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 72.8 16
2019 70.4 0
2018 70.7 0
2017 70.5 0
2016 71.8 0
2015 74.5 0
2014 69.7 0
2013 67.9 0
2012 68.8 0
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Quite chilly am. Mostly cloudy/hazy, breezy 51. First 50s went way down to near 50. Cooler than I excpected. Some upper 40s made it down to just about the westchester Bx line. Had to go searching for a hoodie. Cant remember last time I wore a long sleeve shirt.

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12 minutes ago, dWave said:

Quite chilly am. Mostly cloudy/hazy, breezy 51. First 50s went way down to near 50. Cooler than I excpected. Some upper 40s made it down to just about the westchester Bx line. Had to go searching for a hoodie. Cant remember last time I wore a long sleeve shirt.

Earliest first 40s of the season at HPN since 2014.

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-13 (2011) 09-09 (2013) 97
Mean 05-30 09-20 113
Maximum 06-12 (2018) 10-12 (2018) 126
2019 06-04 (2019) 47 09-19 (2019) 43 106
2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121
2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111
2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126
2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116
2014 06-01 (2014) 48 09-14 (2014) 48 104
2013 05-28 (2013) 49 09-09 (2013) 49 103
2012 06-05 (2012) 49 09-11 (2012) 46 97
2011 05-13 (2011) 48 09-16 (2011) 48 125
2010 05-20 (2010) 49 09-16 (2010) 47 118
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Morning thoughts...

This morning saw some of the coolest readings so far this season. Low temperatures included:

Allentown: 44°
Boston: 49°
Bridgeport: 50°
Islip: 53°
New York City: 54°
Newark: 51°
Philadelphia: 52°
Poughkeepsie: 43°
White Plains: 45°

Today will be sunny but brisk. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in much of the region to perhaps lower 70s in a few areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°
Newark: 70°
Philadelphia: 70°

Much of the week will feel like early autumn. An even colder air mass could arrive late in the week.  

 

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53 this morning, a shock to the system.

High of 79 yesterday, would’ve been in the 80’s if not for the smoke.

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Long period swells from Patrica worked their magic and caused washovers and erosion. Long period swells (over 12 seconds) are extremely energetic and surge up and over the beach. I had the pleasure of riding those swells last night and it was a memorable session at Gilgo beach.

image.png.097ba345466908998ece9a391f60ebfd.png

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Was down at 45 earlier today between 345 and 4AM this morning.  Warm it up Wed and Thu before next cold front brings the coolest air since (today) starting Sat (9/19) through next Tues (9/22).  Looks like moderation and then a much warmer close to the month.  Also guidance may look wetter come Saturday.  

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