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forkyfork

September 2020 wx discussion

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I’d normally start feeling depressed around this time, but that was before September was upgraded to an official summer month.

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By Tue 9/1 Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding back west as we are warming back . The next 90s look to arrive between 9/2 and 9/5 before brief cool down Labor day.  ECm has 850s >16c starting next Wed (9/2).  The W.A.R looks close by and expanding west again towards 9/9 with sustained ridging into the east which should bring continued warmth / above temps with additional 90s potential especially in the warmer spots..  Tropics look more of a threat to SE coast in that period.

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Developing La Niña, strengthening -PDO, -AMO, inferno SSTs along and off the SE US coast to feedback into the SE ridge/WAR....no shock a hot September is coming up

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By the start of the month the Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west in the more classic Bermuda high position and Tue (9/1) we are warming up.  Wed (9/2) - Fri (9/5) next heatwave and shot at 90s potential before another brief cool down the first half of the labor day weekend.  Beyond there warmer air looks to return by labor day (9/7) and the subsequent week.  Tropics need to be watched in this period 9/9 - 913 EC / FL.  WAR nearby expanding west in spurts , WC ridge pushing into the plains and should set the stage for a very warm period in September.

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10 hours ago, uofmiami said:

 

I hope it is right. Haven’t had many breaks this summer. I am not sure the warm pattern lasts past mid month. And at least then, even warmer days have less 90s potential. 

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15 hours ago, mattinpa said:

I hope it is right. Haven’t had many breaks this summer. I am not sure the warm pattern lasts past mid month. And at least then, even warmer days have less 90s potential. 

Ridging looks to hold over the area especially the coast the first week or so with brief cooler intrusions. I think ridging will work east  from the Rockies towards later in the second half of the month throghout the EC with more troughs coming into the WC.

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Looks like the first week of September will have temps up and down to average about normal. Looks like the second week may  bring in a more consistent cool down making the first have of the month a little below normal. Wouldn't that be a change if it plays out.

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Looks like the first week of September will have temps up and down to average about normal. Looks like the second week may  bring in a more consistent cool down making the first have of the month a little below normal. Wouldn't that be a change if it plays out.

It would be amazing to have a September that felt more like September than August for once.

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think of it this way: this is likely to be the coolest september of the next 100 years :)

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44 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

think of it this way: this is likely to be the coolest september of the next 100 years :)

I can see it now, southerners will move north to be in the pleasant Northeast climate.

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

I can see it now, southerners will move north to be in the pleasant Northeast climate.

If any of your descendants happen by this post, as they return from wintering on the Florida archipelago, they may remember the profound words of Shakespeare “ Many a true word is said in jest”. As always .....

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summer is over.. it is time to enjoy the cooler

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

think of it this way: this is likely to be the coolest september of the next 100 years :)

well a asteroid strike or a super volcanic eruption will cool the earth  by a lot.. no one should be making 100 year predictions..with certainty..

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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Ridging looks to hold over the area especially the coast the first week or so with brief cooler intrusions. I think ridging will work east  from the Rockies towards later in the second half of the month throghout the EC with more troughs coming into the WC.

Do you think the worst of the heat is over? I kind of doubt we stay all fall feeling but perhaps we can be more normal.

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42 minutes ago, rclab said:

If any if any of your descendants happen by this post, as they return from wintering on the Florida archipelago, they may remember the profound words of Shakespeare “ Many a true word is said in jest”. As always .....

Even though most New Yorkers would love to see that day, I am confident we will have forms of energy that give off no pollution what so ever, long before the 100 years is up. Even if I am wrong, we won't destroy the earth, we might destroy ourselves, but not the earth. Anyway, all the possibilities with the potential  Laura interaction turned out to be not much.  So far here, .11 inch of rain today.

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9 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Do you think the worst of the heat is over? I kind of doubt we stay all fall feeling but perhaps we can be more normal.

I think the worst of the heat is over but still there will be 80s. Sunday night some of our colder places could see 40s.

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33 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Do you think the worst of the heat is over? I kind of doubt we stay all fall feeling but perhaps we can be more normal.

It really depends on how long the ridge says locked in along the West Coast. This hasn’t been our typical September pattern during the last decade. There has usually been a trough out there with a ridge over New England.

CD70F15F-6DF0-4AB7-8F13-1BF148576DEE.thumb.png.b617526ac72f164d5b6b5ab18e7ac6a0.png
2390B035-4F01-45E0-B14C-7B85B4DAD010.png.6b468e0d54d993e0de80b00eb5bae194.png

 

 


 


 

 

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59 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Do you think the worst of the heat is over? I kind of doubt we stay all fall feeling but perhaps we can be more normal.

Isn’t that a relative question?  Do you mean the worst of the heat as in upper 90s for highs?  Or worst of the heat as in departures from average?  

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25 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Isn’t that a relative question?  Do you mean the worst of the heat as in upper 90s for highs?  Or worst of the heat as in departures from average?  

I’m talking about 90 degree temps and near 90

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8 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I’m talking about 90 degree temps and near 90

Some 90° temps are still likely but it becomes much harder to string them together like you can earlier.

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i remember the September 1970 five day heat wave from the 22nd to the 26th...four of the five days were above 90...the one that wasn't averaged 81...the five straight days averaged over 80...the 94 on the 22nd tied the hottest of the season...it hit 90 or higher on seven days in Sept. 1970...the month ended rather cold... December and January were cold...2005 had a warm Sept then a cold December 2010 too...1973 to a lesser extent...I think September sees a few 90 or better days especially the usual hot spots...

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27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para has been consistent 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

Decent pattern if we could get a storm around there. 

Core of the trough should stay over the Midwest with ridging in NE Canada and off the coast at times.

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