NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Are the potential systems the 2 areas off the African coast? Or something in close that develops? It's the two lemons and then the wave that comes off Africa after those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Strong ensemble support for the 5 day cherry. Models are then split between an early recurve and a more ominous track North of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 79/66 now and partly sunny. About 3 - 4 hours of mainly partly sunny skies before more clouds move in. We'll see how high we can get today. Potential for 90s but clouds may get in the way along with pop up storms. Labor Day weekend looks spectacula. Fri warm mid / upper 80s with cooler Sat and Sun before a bit warmer and humid Monday (9/7) WC ridge, Western Atlantic Ridge expanding west from the NE with trough into the MW/GL. Reminiscent of late May and Mid June onshore bananza 9/8 - 9/13. Pending on the flow SE, ESE or E - will determine day time highs but overall warmer than normal, drier with cool and rain staying well west of the area. Tropics need to be watched in the 9/9 - 9/13 period FL / SE. Beyond there warmer finish to the month as WC ridge moves into the plains with heights along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Both ridges have been correcting stronger in recent runs. So the trough got pushed back to the Rockies. It will be interesting to see if there is anything tropical in the pipeline day 7-14. Not good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 What a great day. 79 dp 58!! I thought it was supposed to be hot and humid. Last night and early this morning dews were in the mid 70s. Very uncomfortable but What a pleasant surprise today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 48 minutes ago, binbisso said: What a great day. 79 dp 58!! I thought it was supposed to be hot and humid. Last night and early this morning dews were in the mid 70s. Very uncomfortable but What a pleasant surprise today. Yea it is comfortable. 81 degrees here with 47% humidity and north breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Noon roundup New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 PHL: 84 JFK: 83 LGA: 83 BLM: 82 EWR: 82 TTN: 81 TEB: 80 ISP: 79 NYC: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 85/67 here. I can take this all year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Same folks keep winning over and over again. I hope us mopes in CNJ at least get some rain out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Same folks keep winning over and over again. I hope us mopes in CNJ at least get some rain out of this one. Radar looks blech. I managed a few hundredths last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just an unbelievable temperature and weather swing in the forecast for the Rockies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Radar looks blech. I managed a few hundredths last night Was thinking we would have gotten more rain then has actually fallen since Saturday. Looks like we will be in the skunk zone for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 The HRRR shows an increase in MUCAPE after 00z. Probably a decent shot at some elevated convection before the front comes through around 07-09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The HRRR shows an increase in MUCAPE after 00z. Probably a decent shot at some elevated convection before the front comes through around 07-09z. Euro has a nice stripe of 1 inch rains through NNJ, Lower Hud Vly and S CT later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Tornado watch for snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Was thinking we would have gotten more rain then has actually fallen since Saturday. Looks like we will be in the skunk zone for today NAM actually hammers us FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said: HRRR actually hammers us FWIW That's the 3K NAM not the HRRR. And it only has significant rain for the Southern half of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Tornado watch for snj Surface based CAPE is confined to areas mostly south of 195 in NJ. We have no shear, no SBCAPE and perhaps around 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE developing around Sunset. Likely storm evolution is elevated in nature with low risk of severe weather IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Both ridges have been correcting stronger in recent runs. So the trough got pushed back to the Rockies. It will be interesting to see if there is anything tropical in the pipeline day 7-14. That is a very disturbing setup for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's the 3K NAM not the HRRR. And it only has significant rain for the Southern half of the sub forum. us = the CNJ people i'm talking to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Close today with an 88 degree high here...Did add on two more 70 degree mins however, yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Surface based CAPE is confined to areas mostly south of 195 in NJ. We have no shear, no SBCAPE and perhaps around 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE developing around Sunset. Likely storm evolution is elevated in nature with low risk of severe weather IMO. That’s why the watch is just for snj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 25 minutes ago, doncat said: Close today with an 88 degree high here...Did add on two more 70 degree mins however, yesterday and today. Almost identical here, 88/71 today, 80/68 yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 the northern line out by Lancaster looks pretty spicy and i wouldn't be surprised to see the watch extended northward or for a SVR watch to go up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Temperatures generally ranged from the middle to upper 80s in the Middle Atlantic region. Highs included: Allentown: 83° Baltimore: 89° New York City-JFK: 86° New York City-LGA: 89° New York City-NYC: 85° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 87° Washington, DC: 91° 90° Days for Select Cities (through September 3): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 24 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 46 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 34 (2019: 33 days) Hartford: 39 (2019: 27 days) Islip: 8 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 12 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 34 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 20 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 31 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 36 (2019: 35 days) Scranton: 25 (2019: 12 days) Washington, DC: 45 (2019: 62 days) Tomorrow will again see the temperature reach the middle and upper 80s across the region. A few hot spots could reach 90°. Cooler air will return for the weekend as a deep trough will move from Canada toward the Great Lakes Region and into the Northern Plains. The coldest air associated with this trough will likely remain mainly west of the Appalachians. That trough may persist until near or just after mid-month. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +12.60. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was unavailable. On September 2, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.063 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.422. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Finally, on September 2, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.861 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on the August 31 figure, minimum Arctic sea ice extent will most likely finish somewhere from 3.645 million to 3.695 million square kilometers in September. The highest 25% bound is 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.581 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 9/3 ACY: 89 LGA: 89 EWR: 89 TEB: 87 PHL: 87 BLM: 87 New Brusnwck: 87 TTN: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 NYC: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Absolute deluge here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Are we done with the 90s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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