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September 2020 wx discussion

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42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hopefully we torch until just before Thanksgiving.

With how challenging life has been this year I'd be fine with this. I sure won't mind if my garden keeps producing for another two and a half months.

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9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

With how challenging life has been this year I'd be fine with this. I sure won't mind if my garden keeps producing for another two and a half months.

Given the warm waters off the coast, I would not be surprised with a torch fall

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41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would go with the repeating pattern. Torch October and arctic outbreaks in November 

Yep time for us to torch in Nov so we can save cold for Dec and the winter. If we have another frigid Nov-no bueno. 
 

In all seriousness hopefully we can have the favorable EPO come back which sends the cold into the East, and have something to diminish the Nina pattern we’ve been stuck in like cooperation from the NAO that we saw in 2010-11. If we have another Nina dominated winter with little blocking, we all know how that goes. Don’s stats he posts aren’t reassuring. 

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

With how challenging life has been this year I'd be fine with this. I sure won't mind if my garden keeps producing for another two and a half months.

It would be nice if we held onto a Summery feel for at least the month of September. Especially since our Winters have been so back loaded as of late.

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1.00" in Wantage NJ so far, since 5AM.

No SVR topic planned, so far.

 

SPC D2 afternoon update said this about it's Marginal for our area.  

...Hudson Valley into Southern New England...
   There may be some potential for strong/gusty winds to occur north of
   the more robust convection across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday
   evening/night. Low-level warm advection would be the main forcing
   mechanism. However, most 12Z guidance does not suggest strong storm
   development across the Hudson Valley into southern New England late
   in the period. Have therefore trended the Marginal Risk southward a
   bit, but still including the NYC metro and far southern New England
   in case convection develops a little farther north than currently
   forecast.

 

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would go with the repeating pattern. Torch October and arctic outbreaks in November 

this happened in 1995 but the cold in November went on for five months...

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45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

this happened in 1995 but the cold in November went on for five months...

95-96  was the last time for NYC that every month from November to March was below normal. Came close in 02-03 but March finished above normal. 13-14 and 14-15 got interrupted by the warmth in December. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

95-96  was the last time for NYC that every month from November to March was below normal. Came close in 02-03 but March finished above normal. 13-14 and 14-15 got interrupted by the warmth in December. 

surprised Jan 96 was below normal given the cutters that came that month-guess that brutal 1st 10 days covered it!

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

95-96  was the last time for NYC that every month from November to March was below normal. Came close in 02-03 but March finished above normal. 13-14 and 14-15 got interrupted by the warmth in December. 

the trof in the east basicly lasted until Dec 1996...

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35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

surprised Jan 96 was below normal given the cutters that came that month-guess that brutal 1st 10 days covered it!

The first half of the month was cold enough to compensate for the milder second half. But even the second half of the month only  made to 56° in NYC with the historic flood cutter. January 1996 finished 30.5° and -2.1.

 

28 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the trof in the east basicly lasted until Dec 1996...

That was like a grand finale in a fireworks show. I never expected in 1996 that we would see such a snow drought from 96-97 to 01-02. It was my biggest weather surprise since the winter of 89-90 historic reversal from the record cold December.

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34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Is it true... mPing has returned?

 

I think it has... here is a twitter report.

 

NOAA NSSL

@NOAANSSL

·

1h

Get your phone ready - mPING is back! Download the updated app to report the #wx near you! Already have the app? Redownload the app for the latest updates. https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov

 

E75B6781-04B2-493B-80F7-CF8A8CFDA39B.png

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So, I'm aware of the watch just to our sw.  I expect a combo of the HRRR and HRDPS to handle timing-coverage.  RE: SVR? I doubt in our area but cant rule it out. My guess is a broken line of showers with embedded thunderstorms... a few of which will produce .25 to 1" of rain in 1 hour and maybe a G40-45 MPH.  These storms should be decaying as they enter NYC 1A-3A Thursday.

Will reevaluate Thursday evening, around 645A Thursday.

May post again, if its surprisingly big here in Sussex County toward 11P-mid tonight. Otherwise... this is my last post of today. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

95-96  was the last time for NYC that every month from November to March was below normal. Came close in 02-03 but March finished above normal. 13-14 and 14-15 got interrupted by the warmth in December. 

And it'll likely never happen again pending some unforeseen major event. 

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Tomorrow and Friday will feature much warmer than normal conditions. The temperature will generally reach the middle and upper 80s across the region. A few hot spots could reach 90°.

A deep trough will move from Canada toward the Great Lakes Region and into the Northern Plains starting this weekend. This trough will likely provide a period of somewhat cooler weather. Most of the colder air will stay west of the Appalachians. That trough may persist until near or just after mid-month. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was +20.15.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.502.

On September 1, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.421 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.655.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Finally, on September 1, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.895 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on the August 31 figure, minimum Arctic sea ice extent will most likely finish somewhere from 3.645 million to 3.695 million square kilometers in September. The highest 25% bound is 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.581 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record.

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The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 8degs. AN.       Make it 3degs. AN.

75*(88%RH) at 6am, thin overcast, breaks.          81*(51%RH) by Noon.         86*(50%RH) by 3pm.

 

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Poured here in Wantage between 11P-2A but wifi power interruption prevents accurate accounting. At least 1.1" at that time and Digital Storm Total shows some nr 2" amounts around here in nw NJ. 

No topic on SVR today, at least not yet. Most of the activity in our forum should be 6P-midnight with the bulk of svr just s of of our forum.  If any SVR,  think it's mainly Ocean County.  Not enough CAPE imo.  Will rereview early this afternoon.

As an aside, many talking about rain free weekend...not so sure about Sunday. Seems like more clouds and a pooling of KI across our area. My guess there will be a couple of showers around in the afternoon. Monday is  the warmer beach weather day (safely distanced).

Trough evolution central USA next week seems more positively tilted but Wed--Fri, should rain decently in parts of our area with potential for 2" totals somewhere. 652A/3

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21 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Trough evolution central USA next week seems more positively tilted but Wed--Fri, should rain decently in parts of our area with potential for 2" totals somewhere. 652A/3

Yeah, the record amplitude may allow allow a piece of energy to cutoff near the Rockies. So some rapidly changing conditions even by Rockies standards are possible. I guess we’ll have to see how this trough evolution influences the Western Atlantic pattern regarding any tropical systems.

Courtesy of wx.us  and Ryan Maue on twitter.

7A0D7F7A-E493-400D-8F3F-FC0306046D1B.thumb.png.950a79484986d1439128b775a195d8fc.png

 

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Morning thoughts...

Today will feature sunshine and much warmer conditions. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s across the region. A few hot spots could reach 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°
Newark: 88°
Philadelphia: 88°

Cooler air will return for the weekend as a deep trough will move from Canada toward the Great Lakes Region and into the Northern Plains.

Finally, starting tomorrow, another round of dangerous heat will develop in the Southwest. Parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada could see several days of near record to record high temperatures.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record amplitude may allow allow a piece of energy to cutoff near the Rockies. So some rapidly changing conditions even by Rockies standards are possible. I guess we’ll have to see how this trough evolution influences the Western Atlantic pattern regarding any tropical systems.

Courtesy of wx.us  and Ryan Maue on twitter.

7A0D7F7A-E493-400D-8F3F-FC0306046D1B.thumb.png.950a79484986d1439128b775a195d8fc.png

 

Wow that's ridiculous. From the furnace to the freezer.

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Time to watch the tropics mid month

It's been on the radar for a week already.

It's going to probably come down to how progressive the big trough coming out of the Rockies is.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It's been on the radar for a week already.

It's going to probably come down to how progressive the big trough coming out of the Rockies is.

Are the potential systems the 2 areas off the African coast?   Or something in close that develops?

two_atl_0d0.png?031154

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