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Potential few SVR/FF events parts of NYC forum Wed-Thu 7/22-23/20


wdrag

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Got it! Thank you. Your area got slammed! How much rain did you get? 

Got around 1.10" from last night's storms, and 1.33" for the day. 7.43" over the past 18 days. But couldn't buy a raindrop for the 30 days prior (0.35"). Summer rainfall is so fickle. 

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My last on this... thinking of when to start Tuesday topic-it may be tomorrow-timing is a big part of summer convection, but last night was different...I think in part due to all the low level convergence encouraging Friday morning's big storms (light northerly surface winds  to the north of the boundary and light south-southwest to the south).  I don't want to start Tuesdays topic so early that it weakens to standard run of the mill scattered shower/thunderstorm due to poor timing.  This weakening could happen even if the topic is delayed til Monday morning. 

Summary: here's the RFC 3 day multisensor totals...  from what I can tell, at least 4" in this conservative assessment. OKX RADARSCOPE Digital storm total for the period Tuesday evening to about 2PM today, showing 5-6" in yellow-red. There might be some hail contamination that falsely inflated the precip totals a bit.  I'm interested in ground truth totals for the entire 60-72 hours of 4+ inches. If none additional are posted, that is fine. We have to move forward.  Thanks. 225P/24 

Screen Shot 2020-07-24 at 2.06.26 PM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-07-24_at_2_17.18_PM.png

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Longest light show I’ve ever seen, I watched for 4 hours before falling asleep, it’s a shame it occurred over the ocean instead of just a few miles further north over us.

Aug 13, 2016 in CT still takes the cake for the most impressive light show I’ve seen though, 2-3 strikes per second for well over an hour straight, watched it from LI, which of course got nothing. Seen some good ones in Orlando and Tampa too.

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16 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Longest light show I’ve ever seen, I watched for 4 hours before falling asleep, it’s a shame it occurred over the ocean instead of just a few miles further north over us.

Aug 13, 2016 in CT still takes the cake for the most impressive light show I’ve seen though, 2-3 strikes per second for well over an hour straight, watched it from LI, which of course got nothing. Seen some good ones in Orlando and Tampa too.

This morning was pretty cool over ocean.

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17 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Looks like we’re going to peak summer heat early next week. After that yes you will see 90’s but it should be less humid. Let’s see how we go into August because soon we’re going to be talking about an early fall!

Approaching La Niña winters are often preceded by a warm September and sometimes a warm October.

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the last two years have been el ninos that went from bad to worse...there have been six years that followed a double el nino winters...

1954...54-55...not mild but snowfall was well below average...

1959...59-60...not cold but had above average snowfall...two storms a foot or more in places...

1970...70-71...cold but snowfall was well below average...

1978...78-79...cold with average snowfall...very cold and snowy February...

1988...88-89...mild with way less snow than average...

2016...16-17...not cold but had average snowfall...two major storms...

so far the closest analogs are 1988 and 2016...1988 was a strong la nina by December while 2016 was a weak one...1970 was a moderate la nina by Dec...1954 was a weak la nina by Dec...1959 and 1978 were neutral in December after being in a very weak negative enso state...

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