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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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It almost smacks of a Sandy scenario, only up the coast...

But the bigger picture differentiates significantly in that we don't see a down stream ..west-based -NAO block ...that was part of Sandy's impetus in turning left.  In this case, the left turn is a purer capture by U/A in the simultaneous process of cutting off.

Again, the Euro tends to too much curved signature in the flow characteristic as a bias in this time range in question - and hate to say for the hopefuls ...the EPS tends to fallow it's operational lead more so than other guidance camps.  Example... GFS and GEFS will part company for more frequently - So, this EPS may just be mirroring/concertedly like it normally does and may not be any more portending of much -

We need support ... it's that simple.  We need some other arbiter modeling resources to corroborate ... It's time sensy tho too - I mean, three day from now, if the Euro still showing this mess than it's more believable - probably.. Just saying 'for now'

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15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

The GFS hath spoken. Shut 'er down.

I get that this is an incredibly precise setup that will most likely not happen, but how is a single shift in the GFS more accurate than days of EPS runs?

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Just now, tiger_deF said:

I get that this is an incredibly precise setup that will most likely not happen, but how is a single shift in the GFS more accurate than days of EPS runs?

I was being facetious. I have very little faith in the GFS, given its historical performance. It also kept finding weaknesses and sending Sandy out to sea when most other guidance was locked in for days. That said, I have no expectation as far as the final outcome. A quick exit to sea is an entirely reasonable outcome.

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Holding out hope but we've seen this many times before - Euro/EPS on an island for 2 or 3 cycles, other models slowly capitulate to Euro, while the Euro slowly trends less favorable so the end result is meh. 

If 00z and 12z repeat or continue to get more exotic then I guess maybe its onto something. 

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What a sick angle Teddy is taking from yesterday to Sunday for a monster SE swell . Ruggles- Newport looks like a lock for 12-15 foot faces 
Paging McGulps!

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z eps looks like the mean is a bit spread out and a tad west of 12z?  

Yeah, that looks west to me. Below is the 12z/18z comparison. Could be faster on this run to account for the further west lows, but if it continues like 12z, they’re coming right into the region. Euro doesn’t want to let go right now...

3PcTJ5L.png

5obG6yx.png

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