• Member Statistics

    16,103
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Christina
    Newest Member
    Christina
    Joined
Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, rimetree said:

If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook

It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer.

I’d feel a heck of a lot better about the overall evolution if we weren’t relying on this. Give me a pig ridge. Those I can count on the models seeing accurately.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs.

Well at least it’s interesting currently,  if nothing else?    All we can ask for at the moment.  

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, rimetree said:

If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook

 

21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer.

We dont have the massive trough that  storm phased with. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro

Gfs is also holding back more energy like the euro.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks as though the GFS is beginning to cave to the Euro, but it’s only a half step. I expect the GFS to continue shifting west north of 35 the next few runs towards the Euro

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

He gone. EPS is NS.

We wait for recon.. 0z tonight should bring a little light anyways.. no matter what happens  still fun to track :)

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The HAFS and even JMA have picked up on a turn west. Still into NS and Northern Maine, but this absolutely bears watching for us folks down south

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

The HAFS and even JMA have picked up on a turn west. Still into NS and Northern Maine, but this absolutely bears watching for us folks down south

She gone, wagons east

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_144.png

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

Cave on this footlong, :weenie:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it was only a canada threat to begin with, and its still there. lfg, hopefully much worse than Juan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

One thing I’ve learned over the years is that the NHC is very good at what they do and I trust that what they’re seeing in the guidance is accurate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

You gotta play the odds...99% of the time it’s a whiff.  This is no different, even if the track is very anomalous like it’s showing.  And that track is much closer to Atlantic Canada, which modeling has shifted back to this morning. Don’t waste anymore time hoping...like Scott said he’s gone.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.