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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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Not hearing much about the UK, which has been dead-nuts on this season....just about the EURO, which took Laura into Houston and Sally into west of New Orleans.

Here is the most likely outcome.UK.thumb.png.d06bb9e376501f6156fe14d3b35562cb.png

Not to mention that its more congruent with climo, which favors large phases further NE, towards the maritimes.

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GFS a little to the east but really jucing the trough this run, NS might be getting slammed. The turn west is also much more aggressive

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah?  It could still threaten the Yucatan?

If a catastrophic meteor hits and moves the atmosphere in just the right way, I could see the remnants of Teddy being hurled over the Yucatan provided the angle was right:D

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not hearing much about the UK, which has been dead-nuts on this season....just about the EURO, which took Laura into Houston and Sally into west of New Orleans.

Here is the most likely outcome.UK.thumb.png.d06bb9e376501f6156fe14d3b35562cb.png

Not to mention that its more congruent with climo, which favors large phases further NE, towards the maritimes.

I posted the uk Ensemble yesterday 

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS and CMC are pretty for apart at 36 hours. Models can't  even resolve where it will be in the short term 

I would trust a weather rock over the CMC.

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19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS and CMC are pretty for apart at 36 hours. Models can't  even resolve where it will be in the short term 

They have been doing it all summer but this threat is a long short.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro better get its shat together this winter in a longer wave pattern.

To its credit it did spot the phase and curl NW into Canada that models are now catching onto. 

Hopefully it plays out that way as it will likely generate massive swells just offshore.

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro chokes on this one we might as well assume we're flying blind this winter. 

Whatever they did to that poor model over the last 5 years, they should just go back and reverse it ALL, and put it back to where it was prior.   They ruined it so bad. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Is it over?

Yup.  

 

You know how it goes...a couple model runs that showed a highly anomalous situation....and we all perked up and took note.  But today it's back to something more reasonable.   Having power stay on will be our reward for not getting it.  Which is fine by me too.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It has struggled mightily this tropical season, but so have most of the other guidance, maybe Ukie and Para GFS aside. I have no idea what that means for winter honestly, but it doesn't inspire confidence. 

It's still a piece of guidance, and you need a blend for tropical. The other guidance has begun to come around to some sort of hook so that's a feather in its cap, but it's still a very sensitive forecast for all the reasons discussed the last day or so. I'd still watch in far eastern Maine and definitely the maritimes. Never really in the game here but I don't think it's that unreasonable for weenies to hold onto a few straws. We do that about 4-5 times a winter for a modeled monster at 144 that turns into a C-2" deal in SNE :lol:.  

Oh for sure...all good points no doubt.  

 

It's definitely one of the best pieces of guidance(probably still scores better than the rest)...but it's not what it used to be after it's last few supposed "Upgrades?"   It used to be head and shoulders above the other junk...now it's come down quite a few notches towards the other minor league players.   Oh well, all the best to Atlantic Canada.

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45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro chokes on this one we might as well assume we're flying blind this winter. 

Nah, not even close to true.   Firstly, tropics and non-tropical modeling has defined differential performance ...so, it is entirely UN-reasonable to make this assessment based upon the tropics versus say ... S/W's between Japan and Greenland. 

There's also suspiciously frustrated hand throwing in this post, too - if so, one can only say, hey ...caveat emptor!  Folks were warned. 

But society deals with this at all scales, all the time... throngs to groups to individuals .. bigger and smaller, hear what they want. Or, take what they've heard, and mutate it toward what they want.  They still rationalize the warnings and spin information at/for some psycho-babble level ...I think it is in part psychotropic addiction behavior, like that which was exposed by "60-Minutes" two years ago...  but that's venturing into thought on the matter -  

The Euro didn't do that bad... ? It didn't... 

Some of us painstakingly pointed out the individual model biases, and each model has played along with their biases accordingly - if those were incorporated into expectations.... this was superiorly predictable.  The Euro tends to bias too meridian in flow structures at mid range - that contributes to too much capture, ...sooner and more proficiently.  Contrasting, the GFS has too much stretching in its mid range... contributing to missing altogether.  But what's happening?  The GFS is hiccuping now, which is a capitulation to the Euro...which is trending flatter and less proficiently captured...  So we are seeing a compromise emerge - oh the humanity.  Objectively, this is not flying blind in totality, either. 

 

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guilty. I'm a weenie. I know they're apples and oranges for all the reasons provided. Hyperbole on my end. 

 

OH I figured you were :)  ... but, there are those that will really impugn and stick with it though, and it's kinda eye-rollin'   ... just sayn' lol

Also, I wouldn't say they are apples and oranges quite that extreme .... I get what you mean... but, seeing as the westerlies "appear" to have been overly 'curved' by the Euro and overly ( thus ) capturing too much in previous runs, versus the GFS ( opposite and needing its correction) that kind of makes the oranges influencing the apples - that's more like Pears  haha....  

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We are gonna be in for a rough suprise in the future, we can debate all we want about the intensity and cause of global warming but it's clear at least for the southern folks that snow events have been torching more and more often

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9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Sometimes I wish weather were a little more like a Michael Bay movie

This is the problem with society that has been overly stimulated by all this specter provided by technology - 

You're sentence really should read:  "ALL the time it seems as though society thinks like a Michael Bay movie"   

Right now...out of doors, it is 81 F here with a DP of 57, with very little wind...  a hazed-blue smoke sky with partially dimmed sun still showing ambiance over a peaceful setting only offset by the sound of late summer insects cutting the air with their cricket like song.   Once in a while, a distance rumble of a flatbed truck resonates over the rooftops of the neighborhood, otherwise, entirely quiescent. 

That is the speed of reality.   Nothing we see on the internet or the media tsunamis of chain-yanking occurs as a representation of the Natural order in a cause-and-effect circuitry. It is all self-imposed by humanity's frenetic arousal - nothing else. And society more and more is lost in the din of it.

Everything and all histrionics is all man-f'n made ... a hurried illusion in urgency.  All of it ... 

But, this is digressing into a socio-technological/philosophy course work ... just sayin' ... 

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