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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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52 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

You gotta play the odds...99% of the time it’s a whiff.  This is no different, even if the track is very anomalous like it’s showing.  And that track is much closer to Atlantic Canada, which modeling has shifted back to this morning. Don’t waste anymore time hoping...like Scott said he’s gone.  

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Just now, Hoth said:

Looking at the 0z Euro now, the SW trend of the cutoff definitely stopped and reversed a bit. Not what those in search of a devastating blow want to see.

Euro is just too far W with many tropicals this season for whatever reason. Of course earlier GFS runs may have been too far east if this does go near NS...but definitely a bias in the euro this year. Even out in the WPAC too. 

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1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

I assume you are pretty young. Most here have seen this play hundreds of times. It would take a monster block to send this back this far west as an ET storm or a strong cutoff upper air low capturing this. It will bend but all indicators are this is not in the cards for SNE. 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I assume you are pretty young. Most here have seen this play hundreds of times. It would take a monster block to send this back this far west as an ET storm or a strong cutoff upper air low capturing this. It will bend but all indicators are this is not in the cards for SNE. 

Would have to be a Scooter level banana hammock high arcing around the eastern side of the storm with it weakening on the west side.  Our Canadian Maritime members will need to start taking precautions for this one.

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21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

That should be the end of that fantasy.

.

It would have been awesome to see it happen but you really need  alot of blocking  and a big trough to phase with for this storm to hook back west.  The low is also way too far out in the Atlantic. 

I will keep tracking it but not feeling it anymore

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I hope it hits just to pull this up..  :)

He'd be thrilled to.  But I agree with him.  Now that models shifted back east some this morning...this is not a NE storm at all.  Was fun to fantasize and speculate for a day/few hours.  But I wouldn't be hoping this comes back west "Enough."       

 

We had our brush with tropical back on August 5th....that should do it for another decade or so. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is just too far W with many tropicals this season for whatever reason. Of course earlier GFS runs may have been too far east if this does go near NS...but definitely a bias in the euro this year. Even out in the WPAC too. 

Euro always has a slight SW bias with tropicals. It just seems more enhanced this year. 

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18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He'd be thrilled to.  But I agree with him.  Now that models shifted back east some this morning...this is not a NE storm at all.  Was fun to fantasize and speculate for a day/few hours.  But I wouldn't be hoping this comes back west "Enough."       

 

We had our brush with tropical back on August 5th....that should do it for another decade or so. 

We still have October =)

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