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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Keg Lake?
I'd rather not see that Euro run with the 973 mb Cat 2 coming ashore in Machias.  We'd be facing tens of thousands of cords flattened, and probably unmarketable because private lands would have 20 times as much to salvage.

Nearby...Duck Lake

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Meanwhile 35th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria coming up later this month. I remember calling the. Accuweather hotline about 30+ times a day for updates as it approached

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What's the ARPEGE and ICON show?  May as well throw in them and even the NAVGEM to boot.

The most important CRAS run of our lives coming up.

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14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What's the ARPEGE and ICON show?  May as well throw in them and even the NAVGEM to boot.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

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People who already gave up with Teddy are probably the same ones who gave up with the past  storms that hit the northeast. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Toddy gonna slam right into ENE and then rotate SW thru the region it seems 

Toddy is your imaginary  friend ?

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8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Euro takes Ted into eastern Maine again. Cut off seemed more SW relative to prior runs. I would love to witness the Fundy surge if that played out

Euro seems pretty convinced of that cutoff and blocking high. There's also a clear SW trend with the cutoff.

I don't think Teddy will get that far west because of how far east it is to begin with but it's an intriguing setup nonetheless.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z Euro.   Let's end this drought in a big way.    I guess just got to slow down Teddy a bit and strengthen the high to the northeast of us.  Have the storm come in from a SE to NW direction over the Gulf Stream.

 

*James has entered the chat.

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25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People who already gave up with Teddy are probably the same ones who gave up with the past  storms that hit the northeast. 

Ease off the trophy throttle - hahaha.. 

That scenario offered up with that capture stuff is both outside of the Euro's wheelhouse, but also ...so damn unusual that it is perfectly justifiable to discount it as very likely - 

Nothing is impossible?   Of course not... If you through 10,000 scenarios at reality, someone will eventually get bitten... but that means you had a .001% chance of an impact out of a single opportunity -  ..yeah, rationally, I'd tend to give up when there's a 99.999% of not having the galactically absurd scenario take place.  

That said, I would caution for the general user/reader that the Euro tends to subtle meridian bias beyond D4.5 ...often taking troughs that are hinted up over Alberta and Manitoba ..etc., and over deepening through SE Canada.   If one applies that possible bias in this situation - which in fact one should - the model could be doing so with the SW aspect of that diving flow out there "beyond it's wheelhouse" ...which than transitively if not directly results in the capture scenario - 

It is no wonder that the GFS, ...having the opposite bias in its mid and extended range, that being too progressive and stretching wave structures in the west to east ( while strangely being too cold with heights over Canada as a confusion... interesting - ), doesn't presently anticipate any capture at all..  

In other words, we could easily be just looking at respective model bias creating their own fantasies about what that time range will be over the west Atlantic, and then as completely objective members of a lucid, incisively witted hoi polloi that we are ( that have NO interest in getting drama fed via exciting model solutions, to boot ) are then picking the models that seem to fit that agenda best...  lol

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Disagree.

Those 2 TC look well out of the picture before Teddy is even near the coast.  The approaching H over the GL looks to have the biggest impact on Teddy as well as the speed of the storm itself.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_4.thumb.png.c18aac8ee04a35898c37e4290cd9c4a5.png

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