SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

[Bostonseminole]

Cristobal should be interesting for the gulf coast... discuss?

[Great Snow 1717]

39 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Cristobal should be interesting for the gulf coast... discuss?

Stalls in the gulf until September, then makes a beeline for the coast, then a Cat 6 redux of 38.......

[Cyclone-68]

[Hoth]

Given the way 2020 has gone so far, '38 redux is my baseline case at this point.

[Dr. Dews]

I want a Carol/Edna redux except Edna tracks into NYC

[Cyclone-68]

2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

I want a Carol/Edna redux except Edna tracks into NYC

A repeat of 1954 would be an unbelievable event for here 

[WxWatcher007]

Closest thing to tropical we get this year?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 
300 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.  Showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become a little better organized near 
the center, and the system could briefly acquire subtropical 
characteristics tonight and early Monday while the low moves 
northeastward over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.  By Monday 
night and Tuesday, however, the system is expected to weaken when 
it moves back over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Closest thing to tropical we get this year?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 
300 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.  Showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become a little better organized near 
the center, and the system could briefly acquire subtropical 
characteristics tonight and early Monday while the low moves 
northeastward over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.  By Monday 
night and Tuesday, however, the system is expected to weaken when 
it moves back over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

I think the Saharan dust plume is more interesting at the moment. What a beast.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I think the Saharan dust plume is more interesting at the moment. What a beast.

Easily. Very impressive. 
 

 

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Easily. Very impressive. 
 

 

Wow.

[WxWatcher007]

Hello Dolly! 

[Chrisrotary12]

Still naming every convective swirl. 

[tamarack]

Stat padder.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

[Bostonseminole]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

Nice.. how many direct hits for Burlington?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

Nice.. how many direct hits for Burlington?

8.3

[CoastalWx]

Nice image as you begin to read that.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice image as you begin to read that.  

I did that to undermine the media that is catastrophizing it....that is the tangible impact...nice sunsets.

Be safe, all.

[Chrisrotary12]

Weekend low pressure going to have a name?  If it has a swirl and a thunderstorm, NHC will name it.

[Cyclone-68]

At least no Edouard tease this year 

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

At least no Edouard tease this year 

That's a sore subject. My earliest memory of a weather forecast disappointing.

[wxeyeNH]

Nice trends today for the tropical low.  It's over land right now but the GFS and Euro bring it up the coast and possibly to the west of New England late week.  Not expecting a tropical storm or anything like that but the Euro has it at 1005mb as it comes up the coast and deepens it to 1002mb in New York state.  That would give us high tropical humidity, downpours and a nice south breeze.  Good for areas that have missed convection rains the past week or so.

[Chrisrotary12]

On 6/23/2020 at 1:50 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Still naming every convective swirl. 

Edouard we hardly knew ye. 

[Dr. Dews]

On 7/6/2020 at 10:17 AM, Cyclone-68 said:

At least no Edouard tease this year 

possible

Scratch that, i meant 96 haha

[Bostonseminole]

[Bostonseminole]

[rimetree]

I wonder if the pattern we're entering persists in one form or another into the August-September time frame. Return of troughiness in the Midwest/GL like we're seeing this week could make for an interesting season. If you look at the track of Hurricane Bob, it's very similar to model output for 98L, and was also influenced by a Great Lakes trough. We'll see.

[ineedsnow]

98l looks like it wants to reform off the coast... tons of convection

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

98l looks like it wants to reform off the coast... tons of convection

Wet Saturday incoming.

[Bostonseminole]

should be interesting watching where it forms today, seems to be just about to exit SC on satellite.. recon going in later today.