apm Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Impressive that the NHC is sticking with such high formation probabilities on this with the Euro dismissing it and it looking like its a long way from getting its act together. I would take the under on 90% in five days for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 6z eps is meh and takes it just south of the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 So Euro does nothing w this who else develops this besides gfs/cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Not speaking for NHC's policy but...the Euro has a history from my own experience, at downplaying TC genesis...It does fine once the storms are deeper formulated and perhaps 'detectable' - so it seems ...- in the initialization grids. But prior to that, the model does not seem to 'zygote' TCs based off mere ingredients that are present in the environment. Contrasting, ...the GGEM is overly volatile in that regard...taking very little provocation shy of a f'n cumulus cloud ... it runs along and develops them into Cat 4 tempests within five or six days... That was all 10 years ago, tho. Not sure what recent year's performances and how those are comparative to any modeling enhancement with the tropics, since. It's tricky though, ..because the Euro and the GFS: ...the former is a finer meshed model and all that ... with the sophisticated correction schemes and blah blah...but its actual physics are hydrostatic, meaning it relies upon geometric altitude. Contrasting, the GFS is a non-hydrostatic model... using pressure coordinates. By virtue of the tropics, that requires a hypsometric resolution.. and since hypsometry is the integral PV=NRT into the hydrostatic, which is purely altitude, it seems that "might" be why the Euro has trouble with momentum at the lower bounds of TC realization... Which cannot be resolved ( don't believe ) without the vertical resolution and actually pseudo -adiabats are involved in that...duh - to wit, the tropic model/TC is a vertical physical/convection machinery, converting the latent heat to rising motion, is converting thermal energy into a mechanical energy - it really is an extraordinarily elegant, naturally occurring efficient engine - way waaay more so than the internal combustion engines invented by human ingenuity that interestingly...if we keep using, will stop the former eventually. etc.. we suck yet again...and so on, enjoy your breakfasts... So, it seems the Euro would be less better? It is certainly seeming at times too conservative to 'get things going,' that much is prevalent in memory and experience. It may be that it just doesn't have the grid resolution of data in the tropics to populate the grids, too, but with sat sounding so sophisticated these days that's getting to be harder sell... Just thought I'd give the novice engagement of this site a well-deserved pop-cycle headache by saying those words - so run along for you Advil 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So Euro does nothing w this who else develops this besides gfs/cmc Into the shredder on the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Oh well. Back to my marginal risk for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 yeah, not so worry about models till something forms.. but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Something this big and broad often doesn’t explode quickly in a great environment, let alone one with SAL lurking. Models have struggled with TC genesis and intensity this year. Watch the immediate environment and go from there. The model watching will drive you up a wall. yeah, it's a huge systems, definitely drawing in some dry air.. once things are less hostile this should develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Mm...I would add that momentum isn't the only thing wrong with trying to move this elephant's ass... There is a huge envelopment of SAL that is wrapped cyclonically into the wester circumvallate of the best perceived cyclonic region ...actually looks like the stinger on a TC death hornet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 So, if it develops it will probably be slower and end up pushing short term forecast further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 See those fractals and shrapnel of SAL inside the busted ravioli region of the blown open vortex ....??? that's what's left of the venom once it is ingested and mixes with, and ultimately physically stops the pseudo-adiabats from timely release of latent heat... The way SAL works/is theorized...by the way ... is that it infuses "too much of a good thing" into the cloud seeding levels of the sounding... Such that when condensates are super-proficiently gather early system doesn't benefit from the time-corriolis part of the dynamics, and the system is effectively stopped from organizing mechanically - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So, if it develops it will probably be slower and end up pushing short term forecast further west This isn't a bad assumption or guess or ..surmise...or insight ( pick whatever is less offensive and extends the best adulation ) ... Because as we know, shallow systems tend to run along with the trade vectors...and the steering/integral with the streering level needs the virtue of actually having a vertical structure to tap into that level... Such that sustained updrafts are then influenced - In a way... the quasi-coupling with the oceanic heat source is crucial in that it is not absolutely coupled...if so, it would always shear apart...but, it sort of sinusoidally cycloids/tilts ...where the direction of the storm motion always leans some imperceptible amount in the direction the storm is moving - .... heh...cool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 I’ll go with “insight” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 CMC has the system approach FL as week system and then intensify as it goes up the coast .. maybe CAT1 approaching NC coast.. GEFS looks similar in terms of track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Meh... looks to me like an incremental step by the GGEM/NAVGEM....etc, toward a suppression - reluctant capitulators to the Euro ...just need another two or three cycles to have this down to a TW southwest of Jamaica... But, at least it spurred 7 pages of profligate consumption of fossil fuels to power the internet and the engagement for absolutely nothing - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 'course I haven't seen the 12z Euro yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Looks like the euro also has gulf solutions too. Can't rule that out. It did look better on the 00z guidance as far as being a more cohesive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the euro also has gulf solutions too. Can't rule that out. It did look better on the 00z guidance as far as being a more cohesive storm. Just saw the 6z EURO close to hurricane strength east of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Just saw the 6z EURO close to hurricane strength east of Florida It marches right into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Am I missing something? I see 45kts at 90. At any rate, hard to know anything without knowing where the LLC is. I’m starting to favor the western lobe of convection, which may favor a more western track and stronger system given the current convective trends. Still, a western track increases the risk of a Hispaniola visit IMO. That’d do serious damage to 92L. yeah, seems less hostile for western lobe and better chance to develop, I guess recon is going in later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 So bearing very little resemblance at mid level tropospheric layout and/or synoptic evolution ... those forcing governors manage to relay a TC ( assuming so...) up the EC similar to the track and speed behavior of Irene ... At least per some of the operational versions that are more coherent with development... Granted, the Euro and GFS are not impressed with this system and never have been. That said, even these guidances have come around ( a little bit ..) more polished with the developmental complexion of the would-be TC .. overnight. It may still yet be that the system is being under-done therein, pending a better detection of actually existing in the initialization grids for these global numerical models. Contrasting, these other guidance ... such as the stellar performing NAVGEM and the shimmering gallory of mediocrity museum-able GGEM...to mention the HWRF ( wooh, bestill our quaken dystopian lustful hearts) may simply be more physically sensitive to parametric variables - thus don't need as much to development matters further. Speculating.... Earlier in this thread I was of the school that there was no way to get an EC crawl and/or expresser given the season trends - and of course... proving the existence of metaphysical forces governing all... summarily the pattern begins to change toward one that would, only "seemingly" by pure coincidental timing. We'll have to see ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 looks like invest 92L has graduated to #PTC9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Assuming this system forms, overall there is pretty good agreement in the overnight ensembles of a TC moving up the east coast and passing southeast of ACK. Hopefully a large transitioning cyclone that can throw some rain back our way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 2 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 4 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Assuming this system forms, overall there is pretty good agreement in the overnight ensembles of a TC moving up the east coast and passing southeast of ACK. Hopefully a large transitioning cyclone that can throw some rain back our way. Hopefully it crashes directly into LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Looking at satellite , it appears to me to be forming on S side of (disturbance envelope ) between 12.5/13N compared to the earlier estimate of a General center near 14 N by NHC at 1 we shall c i wouldn’t be surprised if this wraps up in that area faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: #weneedthis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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