tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 West = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not going to affect the metro area it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Not going to affect the metro area it seems You are in the wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, rimetree said: If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs. Well at least it’s interesting currently, if nothing else? All we can ask for at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I had a suspicion that guidance would start to trend away tonight. Glad to know at least I can go to sleep still interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, rimetree said: If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook 21 minutes ago, Hoth said: It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer. We dont have the massive trough that storm phased with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We dont have the massive trough that storm phased with. Correctomundo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: 0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro Gfs is also holding back more energy like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Looks as though the GFS is beginning to cave to the Euro, but it’s only a half step. I expect the GFS to continue shifting west north of 35 the next few runs towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Its coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Euro op similar to 12z. Just SE of Eastport. Congrats Frankie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Ain’t for us. We Hazey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 He gone. EPS is NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: He gone. EPS is NS. We wait for recon.. 0z tonight should bring a little light anyways.. no matter what happens still fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 6z ICON might have been a good hit if it went beyond 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Eye see you Teddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 The HAFS and even JMA have picked up on a turn west. Still into NS and Northern Maine, but this absolutely bears watching for us folks down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: The HAFS and even JMA have picked up on a turn west. Still into NS and Northern Maine, but this absolutely bears watching for us folks down south She gone, wagons east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 NHC seems pretty certain on the recurve scenario. Well it was exciting for a short time. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: She gone, wagons east EPS not so good on Sally, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change Cave on this footlong, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 it was only a canada threat to begin with, and its still there. lfg, hopefully much worse than Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change One thing I’ve learned over the years is that the NHC is very good at what they do and I trust that what they’re seeing in the guidance is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Teddy just doesn't want to be seen near Chappaquiddick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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