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Everything posted by hurricaneman

  1. The thing I’m seeing is that the GFS is slowly trending towards the Euro
  2. The long run of the 0zGFS is showing a major hurricane near New England,l from 95L, wouldn’t bet on it this far out
  3. Several members if you go farther out in the ensemble run go west of Bermuda and impact the NE US and Nova Scotia, may have to watch this even though it’s a slim chance for the NE US but most probable an Atlantic Canada landfall especially Nova Scotia
  4. Similar in track to the HWRF
  5. Also this one on the 0zGFS has a cat 2 hurricane so we can’t rule out a major heading for Montauk, RI or SE Massachusetts
  6. The 0zGFS looks similar to Bob in 1991 but a bit weaker but the trend is stronger with Henri from run to run and not weird jumps in intensity and movement so this needs to be watched for sure
  7. Looks as though the GFS is beginning to cave to the Euro, but it’s only a half step. I expect the GFS to continue shifting west north of 35 the next few runs towards the Euro
  8. Looks like the track of Edna in 1954, the models will change so being in the GFS 5 day may be a blessing if it keeps trending east
  9. Big hit for southern New England on the 12zGFS, cat 2 or 3
  10. Looks like A big hit for southern New England on the 12zGFS
  11. Honestly eastern New England need to watch Chris as the models are trending closer and would be a hurricane as it passes by but the UKMET is showing SE Massachusetts landfall as a hurricane
  12. The thing is the UKMET showed into Cuba to Florida from a week away with Irmawhile all the other models showed east of Florida into North Carolina and we all know which model nearly verified so looking at things I feel the current motion is more in line with the UKMET than any of the other models so it's going to be a long week
  13. Can't discount it, it did quite well with Irma and Harvey
  14. If the Euro and GFS meet in the middle this will run up the spine of Florida, am prepared for this
  15. This is going to be a huge disaster and i feel for the people down from the dam if the reservoir floods out
  16. The New Orleans tornado has a preliminary rating of EF 3
  17. Even South Texas isn't out of the woods yet
  18. looks like that cell heading for Chandler has large hail and weak rotation, that cell may end up being the first of many tornado warned cells today
  19. Joquin and Erika have been retired in the Atlantic and Patricia in the pacific
  20. Based on the subsurface upwelling kelvin wave we may see an rather dramatic drop in enso 3 in the next month or 2 possibly making the CFSv2 unrealistic and siding more with the euro as Mike Ventrice has mentioned on his twitter
  21. The way things are looking we may or may not have an active hurricane season, it all will depend on the water temps SW of the Baja
  22. Looks like El Niño is weakening, but may not weaken the shear due to warm water sw of the Baja
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