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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Right. But why is Sandy included here?

Sandy  tracked parallel to the coast  even though  it was about to stay OTS before getting pulled back.

I think he is saying that  the low has to be closer to the coast to get a SNE hit.

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5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Wait....is that Sandy in the above? 

Yes Sandy is included in this graphic that I found  already labelled online, even though it did not technically make landfall in New England it certainly had a significant impact on the south coast but yes technically you are correct. 

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Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

Yes Sandy is included in this graphic that I found  already labelled online, even though it did not technically make landfall in New England it certainly had a significant impact on the south coast but yes technically you are correct. 

Oh I know you found it online. I'm just confused as to who would have created such a graphic for New England hurricanes that includes Sandy.  If that case, might as well include Earl, Bill, Eduourd, etc. Again, not yelling at you. lol

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Y’all are weird. We’re in no different position today than yesterday. Odds of a direct hit where people live (PWM south) are akin to the Hail Mary of Hail Marys. Hasn’t changed.

Odds of a direct impact in eastern ME are decent but far from a lock. Same as yesterday. 

The odds of a hit in NS are rising given the look now on the GFS and ensembles. 

I don’t think we get a 500 mile SW adjustment with the cutoff, but meaningful shifts either way are still possible. I’d track like a weenie holding on for dear life in SNE and watch with a more deliberate eye in Maine and Canada. 

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2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Oh I know you found it online. I'm just confused as to who would have created such a graphic for New England hurricanes that includes Sandy.  If that case, might as well include Earl, Bill, Eduourd, etc. Again, not yelling at you. lol

https://www.quincyvagell.com/2014/03/27/new-england-hurricane-tracks/#:~:text=The “typical” New England hurricane,fit the data fairly well.

 

It was actually part of an article  written by a well known meteorologist formerly from New England Quincy Vagell. 

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Key to any close approach to eastern New England is 1)stronger than modeled WAR pushes Ted southwest of Bermuda and 2)Development of a +3SD -NAO block....over North Atlantic.


Lacking both at the moment, but greater issue is with point 1) presently....

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Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

https://www.quincyvagell.com/2014/03/27/new-england-hurricane-tracks/#:~:text=The “typical” New England hurricane,fit the data fairly well.

 

It was actually part of an article  written by a well known meteorologist formerly from New England Quincy Vagell. 

It was Quincy! Gonna have to have words with StormChaserQ. lol

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43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I circled Sandy

20200917_100647.jpg

"Slightly" different point of origin and looks like the only one with any westward component at LF - like 90 degrees off from all the others.  Expecting Teddy to be moving west of due N at latitude 40 is beyond a hail Mary.

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57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Y’all are weird. We’re in no different position today than yesterday. Odds of a direct hit where people live (PWM south) are akin to the Hail Mary of Hail Marys. Hasn’t changed.

Odds of a direct impact in eastern ME are decent but far from a lock. Same as yesterday. 

The odds of a hit in NS are rising given the look now on the GFS and ensembles. 

I don’t think we get a 500 mile SW adjustment with the cutoff, but meaningful shifts either way are still possible. I’d track like a weenie holding on for dear life in SNE and watch with a more deliberate eye in Maine and Canada. 

weird is right.. she gone.. she gone.. droughstein . she gone  

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

weird is right.. she gone.. she gone.. droughstein . she gone  

I guess the question is...did people really think this was coming into the Harbor yesterday? :lol: 

Bar Harbor to Cape Breton is the zone to watch IMO. Hasn't really changed in my mind. 

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Oh I know you found it online. I'm just confused as to who would have created such a graphic for New England hurricanes that includes Sandy.  If that case, might as well include Earl, Bill, Eduourd, etc. Again, not yelling at you. lol

Cept winds gusted to 98 along the southern coast. Those above didn't hit with any ferocity.

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1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

https://www.quincyvagell.com/2014/03/27/new-england-hurricane-tracks/#:~:text=The “typical” New England hurricane,fit the data fairly well.

 

It was actually part of an article  written by a well known meteorologist formerly from New England Quincy Vagell. 

Q is doing voice overs on a Travel Channel series about catastrophic storms.

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