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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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54 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

It was a quite impactful setup, not necessarily from Wilma directly but the enormous fetch. Wind, flooding and snow.

05 and 20

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dwm500_wbgsm_20051025.gif

sfcplot_sm_20051025.gif

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

05 and 20

download (2).png

dwm500_wbgsm_20051025.gif

sfcplot_sm_20051025.gif

 

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_48.png

Two different opportunities. First with better UL synoptic setup, second with better tropical connection.


Sharp UL troughs over the N Gulf or SE Coast can often spawn TC’s/STC’s this time of the yr, and w/o much guidance support at short leads... So I’m still focused on the day 5 potential...

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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

Two different opportunities. First with better UL synoptic setup, second with better tropical connection.


Sharp UL troughs over the N Gulf or SE Coast can often spawn TC’s/STC’s this time of the yr, and w/o much guidance support at short leads... So I’m still focused on the day 5 potential...

Euro actually gusts outer Cape into the 60s

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I've been casually looking at that possibility. Euro looks most interesting. 

And then lots of guidance seems to be festering something off the SE and/or GOM after.

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28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Honestly I’m starting to look past hurricane season and don’t really feel like going to the Gulf again. Unless there’s an east coast threat my tropical chase season is probably done.

EURO gets it down to 961 then weakens to a TS at LF mid LA. 

Let the blizzard chase season begin

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Delta appears destined to 5 status ... 

Looking at the typical environmental factors, this system has 0 inhibition for strengthening - that only leaves internal fluctuations that are not predictable with any reliancy such IR sequencing and so forth. 

My experience with that is that the TCs destined for unimpeded realization ... typically spike to their apex along the gestation intensity in that first 18 to 24 hours through that initial RI (rapid intensity..).  After which replacement and expanding wind fields and other mechanics start lowering winds due to spreading the atmospheric response to the internal/core pressure implosion.  Right now... the core is simply coring out faster than the surrounding PGF can respond due to curvature physics impeding mass transport ... so it's probably going to be 920 mb here by overnight... at 160 mph ( I'm guessing) at about the time FOX News contingency's blaming it on gay marriage - 

Heh...anyway, it may not be that strong but it's 130 mph rather abruptly and again, it just appears to be in the midst of an RI curve that has zippo inhibitors for the next 24 hours.  I dunno- but that I don't see what's going to stop this thing from really ceiling intensity.  Also, I am noticing the the modest shearing that the models were imposing on the circulation out there around ( now) 96 hours,... is all but gone or reducing.  In fact, many global models are significantly expanding the pressure field/dimension of the circumvallate of the cyclone as it is in the midriff Gulf open seas... approaching 120 hours.. That's bit alarming for obvious reasons.. and who knows what kind of particulars with structure it will harbor.  Lyme bite ringed eye-walls tunneling along 135 mph wind drills, each separated by intervening zephyrs of only 78 mph to offer exhalation as the coast is clear if one is lucky enough to be there instead - 

 

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000
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is 
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have 
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes 
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

 

I'm sure CrankyWeatherGuy, will say its no more than a Cat 1 right now. Haha!

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Yeah the transport/PWAT aspect up to the lover OV/ to upper MA/NE regions was hinted several days ago but has been flip-flopping a bit with some runs trying to flatten the flow ...but I think the westerly position has merit... 

May not correct deficits but will dent if so -

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Delta's seems to have followed the floor plan of this tropical season for failing exulted states based upon every indicator suggesting it should -... 

Finally, for the first time in the past 5 days of this this thing ...we seem to have emerged a definitive eye.   Even when this cyclone was 140 mph ... I'm sure it had an eye but you could not see it... And I mean it was not like there was an "impression" of an eye if perhaps merely obscured by clouds ...it looked like there was no 'dent' nothing... just a CDO with weird cold nodules that seemed to bifurcate where an eye would be..  

As an aside, it seems there's probably some sort of at least indirect correlation between presentation and health - heh... who knows -.. 

Anyway, it weakened without an IWR ...just for no reason, prior to making landfall on the Yuk.  Okay ...it's not like we want to kite civility along down there. But, it moves back out over 312 F water and 0 shear...  

100 mph -  ... wow, look out!  

Something is "in the air" ( ha!) mitigating this seasons...   Historic numbers held back is what is really gone.  Interesting...  Oh, I'm sure this going to be a category 9 sonic speed orbit influencer now that I've insolently questioned the motivations of the gods ... but, the damage of seasonal profile is already in the museum in my mind and this has been a weird year. 

I wonder if some of this is 'detection sensitivity' -  ...but it's hard to mention that without suggesting intent was in play - I really don't mean that. But the network of tech and human observation was simply not as sophisticate in the past ... By virtue of that, some of this could be influenced by those latter advantages.  I just a suggestion -

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DELTA Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/hurricane-delta-final-call.html?fbclid=IwAR3XtXWKFZZOOkT8WsFWhEtiOl1hdOB2slwf16nrv9PAHAboPEHC3mAJ73c

New Orleans looks to have dodged yet another bullet. Landfall should occur around the sparsely populated Pecan Island, LA at around midnight tomorrow night with max sustained winds between 100 and 115mph. Main threat will be surge, but thankfully once again throughout primarily marshland. While wind won't be anything likely Laura, it will not have to be, as debris from Laura is still strewn throughout the area as projectiles at the ready. Dangerous situation for this area.....AGAIN.

Hurricane DELTA Final Call.png

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