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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/verification-of-hurricane-delta.html

Forecast for DELTA verified, as it made landfall within the high risk zone and was within the 100-115mph forecast range of intensity. Peak intensity and landfall intensity were very well forecast dating back to Monday, a full five days prior to landfall. Timing was off by five hours.

Verification.png

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it's had that for like 7 cycles now...

Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ...

It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it.  The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened.

Oops. 

It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though.   I mean ...from distant orbit, that is.  Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level.

Leaves the question out there:  could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ?   Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's had that for like 7 cycles now...

Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ...

It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it.  The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened.

Oops. 

It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though.   I mean ...from distant orbit, that is.  Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level.

Leaves the question out there:  could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ?   Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

It’s 2020...so anything is possible this year. Cat 2 hooking left into NYC ain’t nothing for 2020 lol. 

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's had that for like 7 cycles now...

Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ...

It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it.  The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened.

Oops. 

It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though.   I mean ...from distant orbit, that is.  Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level.

Leaves the question out there:  could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ?   Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

lol it showed up again in 18z but crossing cuba and heading nne but then the trough gets close and pulls her back a frame then scoots ne out of here......but she there....

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

Cmc has it but weak.. just east of Florida  at hr240

it appears to be keying on general pan-wide systemic/numerical instabilities that exists through those lower latitudes of the SW Atlantic Basin - I was discussing similarly ..it's seems to be a recurrent Autumnal right of passage.   But in those specifics, the timing is way off between it and the GFS, the latter which doesn't even have its entity focused until 300+ hours; contrasting, the CMC is days ahead with an inverted trough over the whole breadth of the expanse and some paltry commitment to a TC ...

The take-away is a period of development potential over all of the western Caribbean, Gulf and adjacent to Florida as the primary concern for now.  

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