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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro chokes on this one we might as well assume we're flying blind this winter. 

Nah, not even close to true.   Firstly, tropics and non-tropical modeling has defined differential performance ...so, it is entirely UN-reasonable to make this assessment based upon the tropics versus say ... S/W's between Japan and Greenland. 

There's also suspiciously frustrated hand throwing in this post, too - if so, one can only say, hey ...caveat emptor!  Folks were warned. 

But society deals with this at all scales, all the time... throngs to groups to individuals .. bigger and smaller, hear what they want. Or, take what they've heard, and mutate it toward what they want.  They still rationalize the warnings and spin information at/for some psycho-babble level ...I think it is in part psychotropic addiction behavior, like that which was exposed by "60-Minutes" two years ago...  but that's venturing into thought on the matter -  

The Euro didn't do that bad... ? It didn't... 

Some of us painstakingly pointed out the individual model biases, and each model has played along with their biases accordingly - if those were incorporated into expectations.... this was superiorly predictable.  The Euro tends to bias too meridian in flow structures at mid range - that contributes to too much capture, ...sooner and more proficiently.  Contrasting, the GFS has too much stretching in its mid range... contributing to missing altogether.  But what's happening?  The GFS is hiccuping now, which is a capitulation to the Euro...which is trending flatter and less proficiently captured...  So we are seeing a compromise emerge - oh the humanity.  Objectively, this is not flying blind in totality, either. 

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah, not even close to true.   Firstly, tropics and non-tropical model has defined differential performance ...so, it is entirely UN-reasonable to make this assessment. 

There's also suspiciously frustrated hand throwing in this post, too - if so, one can only say, hey ...caveat emptor!  Folks were warned. 

But society deals with this at alls scales... throngs to groups to individuals .. bigger and smaller.  They still rationalize the warnings and spin information at/for some psycho-babble level ...I think it is in part psychotropic addiction behavior, like that which was exposed by "60-Minutes" two years ago...  but that's venturing into thought on the matter -  

The Euro didn't do that bad... ? It didn't... 

Some of us painstakingly pointed out the individual model biases, and each model has played along with their biases accordingly - if those were incorporated into expectations.... this was superiorly predictable.  The Euro tends to bias too meridian in flow structures at mid range - that contributes to too much capture, ...sooner and more proficiently.  Contrasting, the GFS has too much stretching in its mid range... contributing to missing altogether.  But what's happening?  The GFS is hiccuping now, which is a capitulation to the Euro...which is trending flatter and less proficiently captured...  Objectively, this is not flying blind in totality, either. 

 

Guilty. I'm a weenie. I know they're apples and oranges for all the reasons provided. Hyperbole on my end. 

 

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guilty. I'm a weenie. I know they're apples and oranges for all the reasons provided. Hyperbole on my end. 

 

OH I figured you were :)  ... but, there are those that will really impugn and stick with it though, and it's kinda eye-rollin'   ... just sayn' lol

Also, I wouldn't say they are apples and oranges quite that extreme .... I get what you mean... but, seeing as the westerlies "appear" to have been overly 'curved' by the Euro and overly ( thus ) capturing too much in previous runs, versus the GFS ( opposite and needing its correction) that kind of makes the oranges influencing the apples - that's more like Pears  haha....  

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We are gonna be in for a rough suprise in the future, we can debate all we want about the intensity and cause of global warming but it's clear at least for the southern folks that snow events have been torching more and more often

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9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Sometimes I wish weather were a little more like a Michael Bay movie

This is the problem with society that has been overly stimulated by all this specter provided by technology - 

You're sentence really should read:  "ALL the time it seems as though society thinks like a Michael Bay movie"   

Right now...out of doors, it is 81 F here with a DP of 57, with very little wind...  a hazed-blue smoke sky with partially dimmed sun still showing ambiance over a peaceful setting only offset by the sound of late summer insects cutting the air with their cricket like song.   Once in a while, a distance rumble of a flatbed truck resonates over the rooftops of the neighborhood, otherwise, entirely quiescent. 

That is the speed of reality.   Nothing we see on the internet or the media tsunamis of chain-yanking occurs as a representation of the Natural order in a cause-and-effect circuitry. It is all self-imposed by humanity's frenetic arousal - nothing else. And society more and more is lost in the din of it.

Everything and all histrionics is all man-f'n made ... a hurried illusion in urgency.  All of it ... 

But, this is digressing into a socio-technological/philosophy course work ... just sayin' ... 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is the problem with society that has been overly stimulated by all this specter provided by technology - 

You're sentence really should read:  "ALL the time it seems as though society thinks like a Michael Bay movie"   

Right now...out of doors, it is 81 F here with a DP of 57, with very little wind...  a hazed-blue smoke sky with partially dimmed sun still showing ambiance over a peaceful setting only offset by the sound of late summer insects cutting the air with their cricket like song.   Once in a while, a distance rumble of a flat bed truck on over the rooftops of the neighborhood, otherwise, entirely quiescent. 

That is the speed of reality.   Nothing you see on the internet occurs that fast in a cause-and-effect circuitry, that isn't self-imposed by humanity's frenetic arousal - nothing.

Everything and all histrionics is all man-f'n made is an illusion of urgency.  All of it ... 

But, this is digressing into a socio-technological/philosophy course work ... just sayin' ... 

To be fair I blame myself first and society second. It’s just the way I’m wired. Lol 

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Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

To be fair I blame myself first and society second. It’s just the way I’m wired. Lol 

Nah trust me ... just another internet voice, granted - but fwiw it is a general population/human condition thing; you are not that uniquely wired in that regard ;) 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah trust me ... just another internet voice, granted - but fwiw it is a general population/human condition thing; you are not that uniquely wired in that regard ;) 

Tip you would make a good clinical psychologist too 

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Tip you would  would make a good clinical psychologist too 

Ha!  no way - 

I am much more suited for the "art" of speculation... Not just weather, but trying to figure out what in the f motivates the 3-loon quota of 'intelligentsia' that guides this crazy engagement offers a deep, deep well of plausibility doesn't it - hahaha.   

 

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27 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

We are gonna be in for a rough suprise in the future, we can debate all we want about the intensity and cause of global warming but it's clear at least for the southern folks that snow events have been torching more and more often

Ya...not worried about that one bit.  It's gonna snow, and snow just fine in New England.

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40 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Sometimes I wish weather were a little more like a Michael Bay movie only less poorly acted. 

Still one of my favorite youtube edits. If Michael Bay directed Titanic.

 

27 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Tip you would make a good clinical psychologist too 

LOL. As one in training, he is much more like my clinical neuropsychologist supervisors. 

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I dont want to hear it from you lol :D

I still think that is too far west, and really nothing for most except maybe Cape Anne and P-town where they get a little rain and wind. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I still think that is too far west, and really nothing for most except maybe Cape Anne and P-town where they get a little rain and wind. 

We definitely  need to watch this.. I'm guessing some of the ensembles  will be good hits.. we got 3 planes flying around out in the Atlantic today.. I think we get a better idea by tomorrow  afternoon 

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

We definitely  need to watch this.. I'm guessing some of the ensembles  will be good hits.. we got 3 planes flying around out in the Atlantic today.. I think we get a better idea by tomorrow  afternoon 

Definitely worth watching but that west bias is really coming through lately, just like it does with winter storms (e.g., rainy cutters/runners when the GFS and even the NAM in la-la land put down snow or developing systems too early putting down 3' in NYC). 

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It’s coming. Time to do some prep work before the public gets wind of the threat. Didn’t have damaging cane strike on my 2020 bingo card. Darn it.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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Any trends in the EPS guidance that we will be able to see in roughly half an hour will show us whether this was a western outlier or an actual trend

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