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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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Not hearing much about the UK, which has been dead-nuts on this season....just about the EURO, which took Laura into Houston and Sally into west of New Orleans.

Here is the most likely outcome.UK.thumb.png.d06bb9e376501f6156fe14d3b35562cb.png

Not to mention that its more congruent with climo, which favors large phases further NE, towards the maritimes.

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GFS a little to the east but really jucing the trough this run, NS might be getting slammed. The turn west is also much more aggressive

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1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

GFS a little to the east but really jucing the trough this run, NS might be getting slammed

Its 5 days out anything can still happen..  

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah?  It could still threaten the Yucatan?

If a catastrophic meteor hits and moves the atmosphere in just the right way, I could see the remnants of Teddy being hurled over the Yucatan provided the angle was right:D

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not hearing much about the UK, which has been dead-nuts on this season....just about the EURO, which took Laura into Houston and Sally into west of New Orleans.

Here is the most likely outcome.UK.thumb.png.d06bb9e376501f6156fe14d3b35562cb.png

Not to mention that its more congruent with climo, which favors large phases further NE, towards the maritimes.

I posted the uk Ensemble yesterday 

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS and CMC are pretty for apart at 36 hours. Models can't  even resolve where it will be in the short term 

I would trust a weather rock over the CMC.

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19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS and CMC are pretty for apart at 36 hours. Models can't  even resolve where it will be in the short term 

They have been doing it all summer but this threat is a long short.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro better get its shat together this winter in a longer wave pattern.

To its credit it did spot the phase and curl NW into Canada that models are now catching onto. 

Hopefully it plays out that way as it will likely generate massive swells just offshore.

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro better get its shat together this winter in a longer wave pattern.

Euro chokes on this one we might as well assume we're flying blind this winter. 

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro chokes on this one we might as well assume we're flying blind this winter. 

Whatever they did to that poor model over the last 5 years, they should just go back and reverse it ALL, and put it back to where it was prior.   They ruined it so bad. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Whatever they did to that poor model over the last 5 years, they should just go back and reverse it ALL, and put it back to where it was prior.   They ruined it so bad. 

It has struggled mightily this tropical season, but so have most of the other guidance, maybe Ukie and Para GFS aside. I have no idea what that means for winter honestly, but it doesn't inspire confidence. 

It's still a piece of guidance, and you need a blend for tropical. The other guidance has begun to come around to some sort of hook so that's a feather in its cap, but it's still a very sensitive forecast for all the reasons discussed the last day or so. I'd still watch in far eastern Maine and definitely the maritimes. Never really in the game here but I don't think it's that unreasonable for weenies to hold onto a few straws. We do that about 4-5 times a winter for a modeled monster at 144 that turns into a C-2" deal in SNE :lol:.  

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Is it over?

Yup.  

 

You know how it goes...a couple model runs that showed a highly anomalous situation....and we all perked up and took note.  But today it's back to something more reasonable.   Having power stay on will be our reward for not getting it.  Which is fine by me too.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It has struggled mightily this tropical season, but so have most of the other guidance, maybe Ukie and Para GFS aside. I have no idea what that means for winter honestly, but it doesn't inspire confidence. 

It's still a piece of guidance, and you need a blend for tropical. The other guidance has begun to come around to some sort of hook so that's a feather in its cap, but it's still a very sensitive forecast for all the reasons discussed the last day or so. I'd still watch in far eastern Maine and definitely the maritimes. Never really in the game here but I don't think it's that unreasonable for weenies to hold onto a few straws. We do that about 4-5 times a winter for a modeled monster at 144 that turns into a C-2" deal in SNE :lol:.  

Oh for sure...all good points no doubt.  

 

It's definitely one of the best pieces of guidance(probably still scores better than the rest)...but it's not what it used to be after it's last few supposed "Upgrades?"   It used to be head and shoulders above the other junk...now it's come down quite a few notches towards the other minor league players.   Oh well, all the best to Atlantic Canada.

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