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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Hard to argue with this.      I'm still more bullish for today than most, but I understand the question marks.    For tomorrow, the potential is real.    My only concerns are the weaker lapse rates (although they are now progged a bit better than earlier guidance) and potential weak sfc wind speeds (although the NAM nest seems to be weaker than some other models)

       I'd still prefer today's lapse rates with tomorrow's wind profiles, but good luck getting those two to align in this region.....

And of course - knowing our area we will find a way to blank on both today AND tomorrow. Latest HRRR still looks good for storms this PM but with pretty garden variety intensity. 

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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There are some PDS TOR soundings showing up on the NAM nest for both today and tomorrow :lol: 

The NAM nest reflectivity looks great for DC tomorrow - less so for @mappy. Taking the NAM nest at face value would put the bigger emphasis on tomorrow. 

eh, ill take whatever we get. 

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17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

15z HRRR has backed down a bit. Shows one big cell in the Baltimore metro area this evening but nothing for everyone else. 

I-795 special with a UHI track to boot.

EDIT: We're getting slighted for DY1 with the PM update.

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I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. 

Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. 

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10 minutes ago, Ian said:

I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. 

Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. 

Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?

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Sure sounds like Ian is onboard to me. 

The new D2 should be an interesting read...assuming they don't do one of those things where they just rephrase the old discussion and make no changes to the maps. 

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

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Just now, high risk said:

I only had to whine for 23 hours before SPC finally put us in the SLGT risk we warranted.

Whining only travels at the speed of sounds, hence the delay in getting out to Oklahoma.

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

It's always nice when you pop back in here. Miss the 2008/2012 type days. 

Fall can be really boring other than awesome weather around these parts - be nice if we could get some excitement. 

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16 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

go on...

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2 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Wasn't aware of that page/product.  Thanks!  Bookmarked now.  

It tends to update a few minutes faster than the actual SPC site. Useful for us weenies that hit F5/refresh waiting anxiously for the new updates. 

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Quote

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND/OR BLUE   RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS LARGE-SCALE   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS AREA.   RATHER POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST, BUT STRONG HEATING   OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD STILL YIELD MLCAPE OF   1500-2500 J/KG, STRONGER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO VA AND THE   DELMARVA. THE ENHANCED (40-50 KT) MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER SIMILAR VALUES OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND   ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE   SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD   ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE   EVENING.    

A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, AS   A 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT   VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS TORNADO POTENTIAL   APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE   RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF MD/DC/NORTHERN VA. AT   LEAST SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY LATER INTO THE   AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE   DELMARVA, AS SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH EASTWARD   EXTENT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING HAS INCREASED ENOUGH   TO INCLUDE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND   DAMAGING WINDS. A CORRESPONDING ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED   ACROSS NORTHERN VA, DC, CENTRAL/EASTERN MD, DE, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ   TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.

That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.

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Tomorrow is an okay setup for N Central MD. I'm just glad we didn't get a DY2 MOD...that's the kiss of death in these parts.

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22 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.

You know it's real when @andyhb pops into our subforum. Do you think we perform or bust tomorrow? 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomorrow is an okay setup for N Central MD. I'm just glad we didn't get a DY2 MOD...that's the kiss of death in these parts.

I doubt this goes to even a D1 moderate. It seems like the kind of scenario that is exactly the reason they mad the "enhanced" category. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong. Further, assume they'd wait for 1630z tomorrow to do it. I just don't think the coverage is going to be wide enough - it's already a tiny 10% area to begin with - and no derecho type setup. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

You know it's real when @andyhb pops into our subforum. Do you think we perform or bust tomorrow? 

I doubt this goes to even a D1 moderate. It seems like the kind of scenario that is exactly the reason they mad the "enhanced" category. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong. Further, assume they'd wait for 1630z tomorrow to do it. I just don't think the coverage is going to be wide enough - it's already a tiny 10% area to begin with - and no derecho type setup. 

DY1 MOD Risk for tornado is now 15% w/ SIG Severe. There's almost no chance we get that. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

DY1 MOD Risk for tornado is now 15% w/ SIG Severe. There's almost no chance we get that. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

For the heck of it - I took a look at the H5 maps for September 24, 2001 - didn't realize how amplified H5 was for that. Nothing at all like that setup. I think a lot of people like to sleep on September for us. But September might as well be May/June. I think the outlook is about as robust as it is going to get. The most I could see is a non-hatched 15% showing up. I don't think the ingredients are quite there for hatching of EITHER wind or tornado. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

For the heck of it - I took a look at the H5 maps for September 24, 2001 - didn't realize how amplified H5 was for that. Nothing at all like that setup. I think a lot of people like to sleep on September for us. But September might as well be May/June. I think the outlook is about as robust as it is going to get. The most I could see is a non-hatched 15% showing up. I don't think the ingredients are quite there for hatching of EITHER wind or tornado. 

100% agree. 

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I need everybody in D.C and the Delmarva to buy an industrial fan and strap it to a helicopter, and turn them all on at once so we can get a D2 MOD.

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