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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today

I have a hard time getting excited about severe. I've said it many times. I've seen actual severe weather here like twice in my 41 years. We do better with slow moving flooders with lots of lightning. 

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22 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today

Storms dropping southward to the east, storms dropping southward to the west... nada in between.

Mostly what the latest runs of the mesos were advertising.

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42 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hahaha I’m actually a bit excited about it. I’ll be home through January, won’t miss a flake! 

Yeah you probably won’t miss a flake. That is true. It’s just how we roll

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27 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today

When have we seen this before

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The Sterling forecast discussion said that the best opportunity for severe weather would likely be DC/Baltimore and south/eastward across Delmarva/southern MD and central VA. More unstable and time for storms to organize.

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53 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today

Figured as much.  We get about two ENH a year and this is our second.

All they'd have to do is move MD down to the gulf, Laura would fall apart faster than a Harbor Freight vacuum cleaner! :)

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I think it was today that looked good on SPC the other day, now there’s nothing? Maybe I was looking at the wrong day...

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Looks like there may be a bow line segment hooking gradually southeast with the classic backbuilding over my area. Then rounds of storms more widespread in coverage throughout the overnight hours with a better chance for severe weather tomorrow, as the SPC highlighted a SLGT risk over much of the region. :weenie:

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rare morning MD for severe coming out of PA

 

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Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone.

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37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone.

SPC Outlook even has "the look" to back that up. 

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36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone.

The NAM looks good.  Its happening.

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At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA.

thats good, cause i didn't get shit out of that when it came south, so if i can get something from its leftover boundary, that'd be cool.

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1 hour ago, 40westwx said:

The NAM looks good.  Its happening.

Ha, was just coming here to post that. It's probably wrong, but the NAM looks good for late tonight and tomorrow for being quite active.

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Wouldn't be surprised if they didn't upgrade the whole region to a SLGT, low level lapse rates are getting pretty decent and better ML lapse rates are moving in from the west. Sufficient shear for more organized clusters as well.

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The lone warned cell in Central PA so far has been the only thing producing sustained damage reports. That is probably being fed by a little vort max or something. I would argue it's probably going to be the main show and would scrape through Baltimore and Harford counties. 

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All of LWX and Delmarva (north of US 50) added to the DY1 slight...15% wind.

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1630 disco

...OH to Mid-Atlantic States...
   Ongoing convective clusters across eastern OH into western PA will
   have the potential to intensify as one or more of them shifts east
   of the Appalachians later this afternoon. Boundary-layer
   destabilization is becoming increasingly pronounced east of the
   Appalachians and some CAMs suggest a leading cluster could
   accelerate it spreads towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. This renders
   confidence in increasing the severe risk to cat 2/SLGT here.
   Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms with some congealing into
   multicell clusters are likely across the Upper OH Valley. Scattered
   damaging winds will be the primary hazard across all regions.

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