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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

It's always nice when you pop back in here. Miss the 2008/2012 type days. 

Fall can be really boring other than awesome weather around these parts - be nice if we could get some excitement. 

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16 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

go on...

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CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND/OR BLUE   RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ON THURSDAY AS LARGE-SCALE   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS AREA.   RATHER POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST, BUT STRONG HEATING   OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD STILL YIELD MLCAPE OF   1500-2500 J/KG, STRONGER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO VA AND THE   DELMARVA. THE ENHANCED (40-50 KT) MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER SIMILAR VALUES OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND   ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE   SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD   ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE   EVENING.    

A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, AS   A 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT   VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS TORNADO POTENTIAL   APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE   RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF MD/DC/NORTHERN VA. AT   LEAST SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY LATER INTO THE   AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE   DELMARVA, AS SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WITH EASTWARD   EXTENT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING HAS INCREASED ENOUGH   TO INCLUDE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND   DAMAGING WINDS. A CORRESPONDING ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED   ACROSS NORTHERN VA, DC, CENTRAL/EASTERN MD, DE, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ   TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.

That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.

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22 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.

You know it's real when @andyhb pops into our subforum. Do you think we perform or bust tomorrow? 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomorrow is an okay setup for N Central MD. I'm just glad we didn't get a DY2 MOD...that's the kiss of death in these parts.

I doubt this goes to even a D1 moderate. It seems like the kind of scenario that is exactly the reason they mad the "enhanced" category. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong. Further, assume they'd wait for 1630z tomorrow to do it. I just don't think the coverage is going to be wide enough - it's already a tiny 10% area to begin with - and no derecho type setup. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

You know it's real when @andyhb pops into our subforum. Do you think we perform or bust tomorrow? 

I doubt this goes to even a D1 moderate. It seems like the kind of scenario that is exactly the reason they mad the "enhanced" category. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong. Further, assume they'd wait for 1630z tomorrow to do it. I just don't think the coverage is going to be wide enough - it's already a tiny 10% area to begin with - and no derecho type setup. 

DY1 MOD Risk for tornado is now 15% w/ SIG Severe. There's almost no chance we get that. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

DY1 MOD Risk for tornado is now 15% w/ SIG Severe. There's almost no chance we get that. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

For the heck of it - I took a look at the H5 maps for September 24, 2001 - didn't realize how amplified H5 was for that. Nothing at all like that setup. I think a lot of people like to sleep on September for us. But September might as well be May/June. I think the outlook is about as robust as it is going to get. The most I could see is a non-hatched 15% showing up. I don't think the ingredients are quite there for hatching of EITHER wind or tornado. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

For the heck of it - I took a look at the H5 maps for September 24, 2001 - didn't realize how amplified H5 was for that. Nothing at all like that setup. I think a lot of people like to sleep on September for us. But September might as well be May/June. I think the outlook is about as robust as it is going to get. The most I could see is a non-hatched 15% showing up. I don't think the ingredients are quite there for hatching of EITHER wind or tornado. 

100% agree. 

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FWIW - There wasn't really much of a signal on CIPS the last day or two for tomorrow either. Some enhancement but nothing to write home about. I generally like bowling ball closed upper lows better (or a very amplified pattern in general) for tor risk around here. 

I think the lack of CIPS shows us that our better severe events potentially have a different configuration at some height level. Nonetheless, ingredients are there for a fun day. Not "outbreak" status though. 

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You know it's real when @andyhb pops into our subforum. Do you think we perform or bust tomorrow? 

I'm a fan of the low level hodograph curvature I've seen on a few soundings, although I'd like to see the magnitude of the 850 mb flow increase a bit to be more sure on tornado potential. SPC mentions 30-40 kts, but most soundings I've pulled are more in the 20-30 kt range.

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Very strongly worded discussion from LWX now as well. 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Dry weather is expected to continue through early Thursday with 
temps in the 70s. Another higher risk day is expected Thursday 
afternoon and into early evening. The front to our north will drop 
southward through the day Thursday. This boundary coupled with warm 
and moist air advected into our region due to a southerly flow along 
with strong shortwave will lead to an enhanced risk for severe 
weather. CAPE values will increase above 2000 as temperatures and 
moisture increase during the day Thursday. Shear will be better than 
today which will lead to an increased risk for a tornadoes Thursday. 
SPC has upgraded our region to an enhanced risk for severe weather 
with a 10 percent chance for tornadoes. Thursday could be a very 
dangerous environment with more widespread threat for severe weather 
and tornadoes. We will to need monitor the changing weather 
situation to determine the timing, coverage and risk for Severe WX 
tomorrow. 
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