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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.

Visible satellite looks decent once you're south and east of Frederick County it seems

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.

Down here in Takoma park it’s full sunshine for a while now.  Little breeze kicking up which is nice.  Feels like a severe day at least. 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat.

I know the HRDPS is a JV model but it definitely would imply a tor threat for Carroll for you. Even the rest of Central MD and then a linear wind threat from there to the bay and then east and south. 

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Sorry for a silly question, I’m new to posting but a lurker for years.

Is the tornado threat for north/central Maryland and then it will switch to more of a wind threat as it becomes more linear moving East? Ik bowing line segments can produce tornadoes but always thought they were more associated with high winds.

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Just now, juliacarolecat said:

Sorry for a silly question, I’m new to posting but a lurker for years.

Is the tornado threat for north/central Maryland and then it will switch to more of a wind threat as it becomes more linear moving East? Ik bowing line segments can produce tornadoes but always thought they were more associated with high winds.

not a silly question! welcome!

yeah, the tornado threat is for any discrete cells that may pop up, and/or tornadoes that may spin up in a QLCS (quasi-liner convection system) aka bowing lines

Wind seems to be the biggest threat today, hence the 30% from SPC. But can't rule out a tornado.

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis is starting to bulk up on parameters. Predictably, mostly in areas with more sun. The RAP forecast that is integrated in mesoanalysis looks good too. 

If you look at the regional radar, there's definitely some discrete stuff firing in Central WV. The challenge is to get this stuff rooted in the surface instability to start tapping the shear and helicity though. The 12z RAOB from IAD has a ConvT of 87 degrees and we aren't seeing anything in the uppers 80s until you get south and east of I95. If I were on the eastern shore or S. MD I'd be pretty psyched about today.

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not a silly question! welcome!
yeah, the tornado threat is for any discrete cells that may pop up, and/or tornadoes that may spin up in a QLCS (quasi-liner convection system) aka bowing lines
Wind seems to be the biggest threat today, hence the 30% from SPC. But can't rule out a tornado.

Thank you! I’m on the northern Eastern Shore. Looks like we’re going to have a busy afternoon


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