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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

14z HRRR is truly awful for DC

NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled 

 

and it was great for 13z.  it'll change again at 15z.  i think we need to get rid of these debris clouds, though.

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Finally some real clearing, even up to HGR. Wind shifted to WSW in Gaithersburg.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

15z HRRR is hot garbage for everyone

fixed that for you

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From the 1630z SPC:

OTHERWISE, STORM-SCALE CLUSTERING AND THE DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY YIELD  
A COUPLE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH 45-65 KT GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
DAMAGING WIND SWATHS TO THE COAST.

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SPC actually expanded ENH up into PA. 10% tor, 30% wind up to MDT/RDG and back west to HGR.

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Latest spc mesoanalysis puts a decent bit of helicity south of I70. The afternoon meso disco is going to be interesting.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Are you bullish? 

I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ugh it's hot and humid out... we better get some storms this afternoon 

It would be nice to get at least a decent storm. Would help me justify the stabbing eye ball pain I had all day yesterday from pressure in my head. 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.

Visible satellite looks decent once you're south and east of Frederick County it seems

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.

Down here in Takoma park it’s full sunshine for a while now.  Little breeze kicking up which is nice.  Feels like a severe day at least. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

HRDPS is discrete until the 95 corridor and then linear. Looks great. HRRR still is eh until you get east of the metro 

Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat.

I will be more than obliged to steal your severe. :devilsmiley::gun_bandana:

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat.

I know the HRDPS is a JV model but it definitely would imply a tor threat for Carroll for you. Even the rest of Central MD and then a linear wind threat from there to the bay and then east and south. 

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