Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,909
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    JAZZOVER
    Newest Member
    JAZZOVER
    Joined

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington.  Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start.

84.1 here just a bit west of you.  Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon.  Should be transient, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. 

             I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat.     There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me.    We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

             I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat.     There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me.    We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

 

QLCS tornadoes worry me more than stand alone supercell tornadoes. QLCS are harder to predict as they can quickly spin up and do a bit of damage before dying out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol!

Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable.

Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too.

If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go!

Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. 

IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...