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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington.  Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start.

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington.  Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start.

84.1 here just a bit west of you.  Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon.  Should be transient, though.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

84.1 here just a bit west of you.  Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon.  Should be transient, though.

Can confirm is gross out.

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Lot of the short term guidance hitting the QLCS stuff vs. Tornado risk now. Wouldn't shock my if the afternoon update drops the 10%TOR but keeps the 30% WIND.

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Mix of sun and clouds.  Blob of clouds on satellite so if that blows off soon then can see sun's out, guns out.

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When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. 

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Raining and feels like Kauai outside.

DP at my house in Currituck North Carolina is 82. It's awful. Hopefully you guys fare well today and don't get any real heavy storm damage.

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. 

             I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat.     There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me.    We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

 

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

             I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat.     There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me.    We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

 

QLCS tornadoes worry me more than stand alone supercell tornadoes. QLCS are harder to predict as they can quickly spin up and do a bit of damage before dying out. 

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Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol!

Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable.

Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too.

If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go!

Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. 

IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!

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46 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

DP at my house in Currituck North Carolina is 82. It's awful. Hopefully you guys fare well today and don't get any real heavy storm damage.

Was down there last week and beginning of this week. Weather was gorgeous!

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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

14z HRRR is truly awful for DC

NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled 

 

and it was great for 13z.  it'll change again at 15z.  i think we need to get rid of these debris clouds, though.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

15z HRRR is hot garbage for everyone

fixed that for you

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