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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I'll base my interest for the rest of the day on that. I don't know why we don't have more special RAOBs.

Especially shocking when your CWA covers a major population area that is the nation's capital. I'd assume it's a funding thing? Wonder what the cost is to release each sonde. 18z sounding ought to be routine on ENH days or higher within the outlined area. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

i hope you do get something, friend! of course i always want severe IMBY, but i like when others get it too.

I know.  I'm just teasing.  We all want non damaging to our houses EF-2s right next to us or gusty non damaging, no loss of power storms.  Its how we roll.  But never get mad when a good friend gets the good stuff.  More fun now cause we post pics of stuff for others to see and enjoy.

 

That said, GIMME ALL THE ENH!!!!

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Just now, H2O said:

I know.  I'm just teasing.  We all want non damaging to our houses EF-2s right next to us or gusty non damaging, no loss of power storms.  Its how we roll.  But never get mad when a good friend gets the good stuff.  More fun now cause we post pics of stuff for others to see and enjoy.

 

That said, GIMME ALL THE ENH!!!!

you can have the storms, ill take the snow

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31 minutes ago, mappy said:

any more "mappyland" thoughts? 

      I think you're in as good of a location as any.    I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued).    The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I think you're in as good of a location as any.    I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued).    The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.

thank you!! 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a bit more encouraging to see plqces like MRB, FDK, and MDW getting into the upper 80s. That might put places like mappyland in play.

82/74 here, with cloudy skies as a light shower passes to my north, FWIW

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Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there.

HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh.

Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming...

Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort.

Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn.

High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.

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9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there.

HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh.

Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming...

Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort.

Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn.

High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.

you just made a bunch of weenies hearts flutter. ;) 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1673
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

   Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 031906Z - 032100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed this afternoon as a
   damaging wind and tornado threat increases.

   DISCUSSION...A broad area of shower activity extends from the Ohio
   Valley into Pennsylvania and New York amid a belt of strong
   mid-level flow. Areas south and east of this activity have slowly
   destabilized through the day with temperatures now in the upper 80s
   to low 90s in northern Virginia, eastern Maryland, and Delaware. In
   addition, the boundary layer is very moist with dewpoints in the mid
   to upper 70s. This has yielded moderate MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to
   2000 J/kg across the region despite very weak mid-level lapse rates
   (5 C/km per 18Z IAD RAOB). Expect at least a few strong storms to
   develop in the eastern periphery of the cloud shield in the next 1-2
   hours as destabilization continues and deep-layer ascent increases
   ahead of a shortwave moving out of West Virginia. 

   Once storms develop, they will likely become supercellular, at least
   initially, given 40-45 kts of effective shear (per KLWX VWP and 18Z
   IAD RAOB). 18Z IAD RAOB showed relatively weak flow in the lowest
   1.5 km, but upstream VWP from KRLX shows strong (40 kt) flow at 1km.
   Once this overspreads northern Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania
   in a few hours, the damaging wind threat will increase and low-level
   shear will increase which should increase the tornado threat. The
   best tornado threat will likely be across northern Virginia,
   southern Maryland, and far southern Pennsylvania where there has
   been less mixing and surface winds remain southerly or
   south-southeasterly.  

   A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two as
   storm coverage/intensity increases.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

 

mcd1673.gif

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