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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Models overall have been inconsistent about the orientation and weight of polar higher pressure over Ontario, wobbling it around east than west, when expanding the 'recency' of the runs to four or so days. 

Just over the last 2.5 day's worth of cycles? Sure.  These appear stalwartly consistent and that feature's repositioning even slightly west makes a big difference, ...because as we know, given 1% impetus to move or tumble cold around the north end of the eastern cordillera's topographic/geography end, will free fall and turn that 1% into 500% over achievement... 

I guess in this situation and considering the tenor of it all and where we've been... the recent runs probably fit that better ?  Unfortunate for winter enthusiasts... but, there is still a little time to see that small adjustment back E with the ballast of the higher pressure's orientation, and if that happens and that cold is given any impetus to move south, it will do so at least excuse imagined.  It's like all or nothing because of our kick-back from geography/geology around here...  It either fails miserably to get cold, or if cold can at all win, it will tend to bust the models.  

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Regardless of any temp crash Saturday night into Sunday, this is a disaster for most of ski country. I'm meeting up with old friends for a long-planned weekend in NH, and it's looking like we'll be playing board games and going outlet shopping rather than hitting the slopes.

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1 minute ago, PWMan said:

Regardless of any temp crash Saturday night into Sunday, this is a disaster for most of ski country. I'm meeting up with old friends for a long-planned weekend in NH, and it's looking like we'll be playing board games and going outlet shopping rather than hitting the slopes.

I know many people who haven't even gone up north for skiing so far this winter. Been a tough winter for the ski resorts. 

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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I know many people who haven't even gone up north for skiing so far this winter. Been a tough winter for the ski resorts. 

It almost seems paradoxical but good snow in SNE helps ski areas in NNE.   Serious skiers go no matter what but casual skiers which represent most I suspect are more likely to go with snow at their house.   Totally different mindset vs California.  LA never gets snow nor does San Francisco.  But good skiing can be found a 90 minute care drive from those cities and no one obviously waits for snow in their yards..lol.

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Models overall have been inconsistent about the orientation and weight of polar higher pressure over Ontario, wobbling it around east than west, when expanding the 'recency' of the runs to four or so days. 

Just over the last 2.5 day's worth of cycles? Sure.  These appear stalwartly consistent and that feature's repositioning even slightly west makes a big difference, ...because as we know, given 1% impetus to move or tumble cold around the north end of the eastern cordillera's topographic/geography end, will free fall and turn that 1% into 500% over achievement... 

I guess in this situation and considering the tenor of it all and where we've been... the recent runs probably fit that better ?  Unfortunate for winter enthusiasts... but, there is still a little time to see that small adjustment back E with the ballast of the higher pressure's orientation, and if that happens and that cold is given any impetus to move south, it will do so at least excuse imagined.  It's like all or nothing because of our kick-back from geography/geology around here...  It either fails miserably to get cold, or if cold can at all win, it will tend to bust the models.  

Current forecast, 50 and rain up in Bretton Woods...talk about a kick in the 'nads

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure if the following is applicable buuut,   January thaws were almost dependable in my youth. 

There is a rhyme and reason to why there's an impression in the the general lore of Humanity for the occurrence.  It may not take place every year, but, patterns in general tend not to last indefinitely.  That duh, is A.   B, when they change, they tend to either reset, in which the same paradigm re-asserts its self, or, changes to something new.  Either circumstance is technically a pattern change - just because the original character recommences, doesn't alter the fact. In the former circumstance, if the reset is a cold to cold change, those will tend to be warm(er) during the intervening period of time; which can be variable in length depending upon what is going on in the entire hemisphere at that time. The experience can be profoundly offsetting - particularly this becomes important when acclimation factor get involved. 

Going from highs always in the 30s and lows around 20 (which it hasn't been ..I'm just making examples here ), then, surging to 54/44 for four or five days ..even if misty, will seem like quite the thaw. May even turn the Earth to mud and remove snow pack.   My fondest winter of memory was 1995-1996 for loading cold and snow ..more so it was the latter comparative to climate. Even that one had a mammoth mid season thaw that came on around the ends of January.  

But again...this isn't every year. Some years the reset goes from cold to warm and your skunted... Or, you don't get a "thaw" per se, because it was never cold to begin with...but the new paradigm finally does freeze and snow.  ...  I would say, on balance, most years ... just spit-ballin' from memory, if it gets cold and snowy early ( like pre xmass) ... you're more likely to suffer a thaw, simply by fact that usually you can't get more than 45 days before a pattern has to refit or move onto something new, and those seams time sort of mid January ..  

I'm sure someone with stats and patience can drill it down.  But, we had a nice -EPO cold burst on our side of the hemisphere in early December... and that waned...to sort of a  non-committal pattern really... and now, we move warm.  As others have noted, it doesn't appear protracted?  But it's kind of a battle between the American and foreign ensemble tools in that regard, because as of last night, the American side still wants to Aprilize the country. 

 

Or 2014-2015. Dec 22-29 at BOS had four days in the 40s and four days in the 50s and felt like spring. 

Jan turned cold by the 5th or so, but still had a day where BOS hit 50 mid-month. It was only Jan 20 that BOS fell below 40 for that 45 day stretch until March 4 (which is the longest on record, IIRC) and then only slowly crept up into the 50s (only four days in the 50s in March, which is basically the same pattern with a lot more sun). But that is absolutely the exception, and given that patterns usually last a significantly shorter time, a few days in the 40s or 50s should be expected in January.

Checking out the NOW data, there have been 21 Januarys where the temperature has stayed below 50 for the entire month since 1872. So one out of every 7-8 years doesn't have a thaw that breaks 50. As for months that stay below 40, that's happened twice: Jan, 1875 and Feb, 2015. 

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16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Ah, it just adds water to the base and makes it more solid for powder to pile up on next week and ongoing.  A little january rain is good for the soul in NNE

We've had a lot of December rain, now we are on track to rack up the January rain...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure if the following is applicable buuut,   January thaws were almost dependable in my youth. 

There is a rhyme and reason to why there's an impression in the the general lore of Humanity for the occurrence.  It may not take place every year, but, patterns in general tend not to last indefinitely.  That duh, is A.   B, when they change, they tend to either reset, in which the same paradigm re-asserts its self, or, changes to something new.  Either circumstance is technically a pattern change - just because the original character recommences, doesn't alter the fact. In the former circumstance, if the reset is a cold to cold change, those will tend to be warm(er) during the intervening period of time; which can be variable in length depending upon what is going on in the entire hemisphere at that time. The experience can be profoundly offsetting - particularly this becomes important when acclimation factor get involved. 

Going from highs always in the 30s and lows around 20 (which it hasn't been ..I'm just making examples here ), then, surging to 54/44 for four or five days ..even if misty, will seem like quite the thaw. May even turn the Earth to mud and remove snow pack.   My fondest winter of memory was 1995-1996 for loading cold and snow ..more so it was the latter comparative to climate. Even that one had a mammoth mid season thaw that came on around the ends of January.  

But again...this isn't every year. Some years the reset goes from cold to warm and your skunted... Or, you don't get a "thaw" per se, because it was never cold to begin with...but the new paradigm finally does freeze and snow.  ...  I would say, on balance, most years ... just spit-ballin' from memory, if it gets cold and snowy early ( like pre xmass) ... you're more likely to suffer a thaw, simply by fact that usually you can't get more than 45 days before a pattern has to refit or move onto something new, and those seams time sort of mid January ..  

I'm sure someone with stats and patience can drill it down.  But, we had a nice -EPO cold burst on our side of the hemisphere in early December... and that waned...to sort of a  non-committal pattern really... and now, we move warm.  As others have noted, it doesn't appear protracted?  But it's kind of a battle between the American and foreign ensemble tools in that regard, because as of last night, the American side still wants to Aprilize the country. 

 

I still remember 'Mister G' on 2 New York saying 'generally patters will last 6 weeks' in reference to (I think) that cold period in 93 or 94 when they had to shut down the bridges around NYC to bang off the ice because a chunk had hit a car and hurt someone. The cold was seemingly endless (I loved it).

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37 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It almost seems paradoxical but good snow in SNE helps ski areas in NNE.   Serious skiers go no matter what but casual skiers which represent most I suspect are more likely to go with snow at their house.   Totally different mindset vs California.  LA never gets snow nor does San Francisco.  But good skiing can be found a 90 minute care drive from those cities and no one obviously waits for snow in their yards..lol.

I just noticed the Vermont resorts are advertising like crazy on billboards along 95 in CT. I am pretty sure I drove by one that literally just said "We have snow in VT".

Talking to people here many have the mindset that if there is now snow here there is none up there.

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Some good squalls upstream on radar today. Could impact the pm commutes especially if they are accompanied by some strong winds.

This weekends not looking good though. Going to go ahead and cancel my plans to head up to Ragged as they will definitely be all rain it appears.  Friday’s severe wx down south could be nasty, going to track that instead of this weekends mess. 

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There is no tuck with this...weak frontal wave, no Quebec surface HP. The surface CF will be arriving from the northwest...

It’s a bonafied torch setup. :gun_bandana::sun:

Funny you put it this way ... I was just thinking over lunch how this is starting to just look like a warm-sector cold fropa period.   Yup...  It could still modulate the other way, but if the Euro's not biting it is probably K'o   ...  

Gee, I wonder if convection starts getting interesting -  ha

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9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euro definitely trys to go meso low in the gulf of maine and accelerate the boundary into NH sat night/sunday morning. Definitely something to watch, Sat/Sat night torch is inevitable

May as well add Friday to that, too ... well, perhaps not "torch" whatever that definitely means, but, that looks like over-top deep layer well mixed continental flow at 12z poised and ready to rasp through any decoupling and expose the surface to dry adiabats... and with 850s already +5 down in SNE... ho man - smoke' em if you got em

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