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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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The year and decade is ending, and unfortunately after a terrific December, that thread has derailed OT for several days. 2020 is coming fast so this is where to discuss mid-winter and the usually cold, dry month of January. Will the PAC improve, in tandem with NAO? How about MJO activity? Will suppression be a factor for storm threats?

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After this reload the next week or so, the end of the Christmas week models are trending towards the trifecta of good teleconnections, the PNA is rising positive, NAO heading negative and the AO is supposed to be neutral to negative.  The supposed great H5 anomalies will favor Eastern CONUS cold and sustained cold.  -NAO/-AO/+PNA favors the coastal locations for above normal period of snow and cold the first week of January.  This change in teleconnections occurs the last weekend of DEC.

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8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Im sure JBs outlook it cold and snowy just like every single year. Lemme guess -1 to -3 and 100-133% normal snowfall

I think JB had -1 for SNE and above average snowfall for the winter.  JB will vote democrat before he puts out a winter forecast calling for above normal temps with below average snowfall

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Just now, ScituateWX said:

To my untrained eye seems like that ridge really is stubborn and wants to hover around the Aleutian Islands have to get that East correct?

Well ideally yes. But it’s pretty stout and dumps a lot of cold in  Canada. So, we may be prone to huggers, but I can’t complain too much.

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