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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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The year and decade is ending, and unfortunately after a terrific December, that thread has derailed OT for several days. 2020 is coming fast so this is where to discuss mid-winter and the usually cold, dry month of January. Will the PAC improve, in tandem with NAO? How about MJO activity? Will suppression be a factor for storm threats?

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20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

You’re the doctor you tell us.

obs: it’s cold out. 

I know nothing

CPC is leaning colder in the NE for their 30 day outlook, not unlike the anomaly distribution from this past Spring

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After this reload the next week or so, the end of the Christmas week models are trending towards the trifecta of good teleconnections, the PNA is rising positive, NAO heading negative and the AO is supposed to be neutral to negative.  The supposed great H5 anomalies will favor Eastern CONUS cold and sustained cold.  -NAO/-AO/+PNA favors the coastal locations for above normal period of snow and cold the first week of January.  This change in teleconnections occurs the last weekend of DEC.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Famous Jan cold and snow analogs are showing up now. Buckle up

Im sure JBs outlook it cold and snowy just like every single year. Lemme guess -1 to -3 and 100-133% normal snowfall

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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Im sure JBs outlook it cold and snowy just like every single year. Lemme guess -1 to -3 and 100-133% normal snowfall

Couldn't tell ya.

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8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Im sure JBs outlook it cold and snowy just like every single year. Lemme guess -1 to -3 and 100-133% normal snowfall

I think JB had -1 for SNE and above average snowfall for the winter.  JB will vote democrat before he puts out a winter forecast calling for above normal temps with below average snowfall

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53 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I see sub normal week of 1/13 and week of 1/20.  Above normal week of 1/6 and 1/27.

Good news is above normal can still work for us in January...as long as it isn't a blowtorch. 

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Still looks like we get cold and potentially stormy before we ride the gradient later in the 11-15 day. That goes well into the weeklies too. My guess is expect snow and cutters, but hope a little 94 magic overcomes lol. 

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still looks like we get cold and potentially stormy before we ride the gradient later in the 11-15 day. That goes well into the weeklies too. My guess is expect snow and cutters, but hope a little 94 magic overcomes lol. 

We're on to Fabuary

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Eps looking good in long range. Still a bit of a -PNA but heights in the SE aren’t crazy high. 

To my untrained eye seems like that ridge really is stubborn and wants to hover around the Aleutian Islands have to get that East correct?

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Just now, ScituateWX said:

To my untrained eye seems like that ridge really is stubborn and wants to hover around the Aleutian Islands have to get that East correct?

Well ideally yes. But it’s pretty stout and dumps a lot of cold in  Canada. So, we may be prone to huggers, but I can’t complain too much.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well ideally yes. But it’s pretty stout and dumps a lot of cold in  Canada. So, we may be prone to huggers, but I can’t complain too much.

Thanks Scott!  I guess get the cold and roll the dice.

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