CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 9 hours ago, cleetussnow said: GFS cuts January 6th situation. Long way out though and it’s the GFS. It very well might. Anything important and meaningful is after 1/7 or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It very well might. Anything important and meaningful is after 1/7 or so. Hope for the gefs mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Dec had it’s moments but the best stuff was to my north. Back half of the month was pretty bad. Hope we turn the corner after the 1st week of 20 with a better PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Jan not looking so good for winter fans. Hopefully a well timed wave can still deliver, but we worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Jan not looking so good for winter fans. Hopefully a well timed wave can still deliver, but we worry First third looks pretty mild. Hopefully we turn around thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: First third looks pretty mild. Hopefully we turn around thereafter. I’m not sure where the 7th date came from but you can toss first 15 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: First third looks pretty mild. Hopefully we turn around thereafter. Euro and eps doesnt look mild at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 EPS is nice after 1/7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 It’s definitely a gradient look, but there is plenty of money in the bank across Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s definitely a gradient look, but there is plenty of money in the bank across Canada. The ridging look better into Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Not sure the last time I saw a map like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The ridging look better into Alaska I think we’ll have -PNA tendencies for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we’ll have -PNA tendencies for awhile. And with a marginal ATL, same ole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we’ll have -PNA tendencies for awhile. Suicidal tendencies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Suicidal tendencies? Southbury CT points SW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we’ll have -PNA tendencies for awhile. Strongly agree....for most of the winter from here on out imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strongly agree....for most of the winter from here on out imo. Yeah that’s when blocking would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The -PNA represents eastern WPO and western EPO. A small amount of Atlantic blocking could bring some amazing snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The main hope now is that the ECMWF MJO forecast is wrong because if it’s not we might have a window 1/8-1/20 and then it’s gonna be over for 2-3 weeks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that’s when blocking would be nice. Yep.. blocking will make or break second half because Pac will not be very good. I'll do a longer term piece before the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 47 minutes ago, weathafella said: The -PNA represents eastern WPO and western EPO. A small amount of Atlantic blocking could bring some amazing snows. Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The main hope now is that the ECMWF MJO forecast is wrong because if it’s not we might have a window 1/8-1/20 and then it’s gonna be over for 2-3 weeks again The western IO region will persist. Looks like we have a decent January if MJO is right, after first week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I wouldn’t hold my breath on any sustained blocking....that’s been like Voo-Doo since March of 18; but I’ll take some Well timed transient blocking to help us out when the systems roll through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t hold my breath on any sustained blocking....that’s been like Voo-Doo since March of 18; but I’ll take some Well timed transient blocking to help us out when the systems roll through. Yea, always dangerous to pin hopes on a sustained March 2018 block, but even just some transient and well timed ridge nodes in the right spots can do the trick. Judging from my analog composite, we should at least pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Gfs is frigid after next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, always dangerous to pin hopes on a sustained March 2018 block, but even just some transient and well timed ridge nodes in the right spots can do the trick. Judging from my analog composite, we should at least pull that off. I hate timing nodes to poke in the right places. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Mm... I wouldn't be presuming anything has be after January's first week - don't have to look far for the advisability of doing that, this winter storm ( hello ) happening in an utter dearth of antecedent teleconnector suggestion. Jesus - That said, ...yeeeah, it's looking pretty bleak if one employs the American indices ( ha). Ugh. In fact, winter over. Haven't seen a signal that bad since the infamous early January of 2007... That said, the D6-10 EPS would argue for a better winter appeal over the U.S.. not sure how well that is teleconnected to the rest of the hemisphere, but that's a very cold look at 240 in that blended mean. The operational not really being an extreme outlier, is actually a sign that the signal may be potent - if perhaps counter intuitive. The impetus being, the mean is always banal compared to the individual member so not seeing that means the weight/correction vector may be toward more amplitude. anyway, it's not as discouraging as the American cluster is all. Huh ...but just looking at the CDC my god. You'd have think the ensemble system is just f'ed up and broke, and needs to be emptied and reset or something. Hard to believe every domain space is biased the same direction - that's really almost pushing physics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Cfs is back to showing a really cold January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Can we please just pull off something like this once? Just once. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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