MJO812 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 The cold keeps reloading on the GFS after the 5th. What a cold but dry run. There were alot of energy running around on this run but there wouldn't be any storm threat if it's this cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Can we please just pull off something like this once? Just once. We did....blizz of '78. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: The cold keeps reloading on the GFS after the 5th. What a cold but dry run. There were alot of energy running around on this run but there wouldn't be any storm threat if it's this cold Yea, I'll sell a cold/dry January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'll sell a cold/dry January. Gefs continues to be really cold Gfs also has alot of energy flying around. The timeframe from the 6-10 , watch out for a storm. Cmc shows a big snowstorm for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Euro and CMC show a big snowstorm at day 9-10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant. Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant. Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? Sounds like last season with the EPO dumping west and storms encountering zero resistance to cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant. Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? Of course but it's nice to look at. There is always a risk. Gfs just came in with a coastal 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Of course but it's nice to look at. There is always a risk. Gfs just came in with a coastal ....but the risk is much greater when the PNA is negative and the NAO is positive. That is his point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sounds like last season with the EPO dumping west and storms encountering zero resistance to cutting. I’m not sure it will be quite that bad. I hope. And who knows, maybe it’s just a bit more East and we get slammed. I have no idea, I’m just saying it’s a pattern that supports a mix of snow and cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not sure it will be quite that bad. I hope. And who knows, maybe it’s just a bit more East and we get slammed. I have no idea, I’m just saying it’s a pattern that supports a mix of snow and cutters. Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily need a March 2018, either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily a March 2018, either... I hate these relaxation periods. Life is always easier knowing snow is in the cards lol. Anyways, another week + of a lousy pattern before we reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 We've already had more breaks than last year...remember that we whiffed on the early December 2018 window. Many got nailed in early December 2019, though I know not everyone. Most of sne, anyway is at least going better than a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We've already had more breaks than last year...remember that we whiffed on the early December 2018 window. Many got nailed in early December 2019, though I know not everyone. Most of sne, anyway is at least going better than a year ago. Agreed a good December, I did not go back Ray to your "winter outlook", I think you, Scott and many others said after mid. December we have a chance of something which came through, then Scott/You and others said a relax period or a yo-yo with a chance, then weeklies look good, then not so good? I hope we re-load time stamp 6th on? Anyways I think most want snow on the ground from late November till late March, with no melting in between! Anyways I guess one storm at a time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looks like some light snows on Sunday and then possibly something Jan 7/8th .. at least we track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We did....blizz of '78. can we get it in my SNE lifetime ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Despite the snow storms, there is most certainly a cutter risk. In fact day 9-10 euro could easily go west. Sorry Ant. Not every storm will do so, but that’s what happens with a cold dump out west and in the Plains. It’s going to be a yo yo pattern. Maybe a touch of January 14? The only way that storm doesn’t cut in that pattern is if the pattern is fluid and transient. There’s been a few storms over the years (never KUs because of the speed) that have run over 40-70 in a setup such as that. They usually occur right at the start of the cold outbreak which as we know is rare. In general when you see a pattern shift, even a brief one the snow event usually occurs several days or more in. Then immediately after the storm the ridge out west breaks down again it moves into the plains and we go right back to warm. If that ridge holds there for 7-10 days behind the storm and the pattern isn’t transient that thing cuts most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 hours ago, 512high said: Agreed a good December, I did not go back Ray to your "winter outlook", I think you, Scott and many others said after mid. December we have a chance of something which came through, then Scott/You and others said a relax period or a yo-yo with a chance, then weeklies look good, then not so good? I hope we re-load time stamp 6th on? Anyways I think most want snow on the ground from late November till late March, with no melting in between! Anyways I guess one storm at a time..... I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December. Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December. Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has. I have a hunch you will proclaim few changes from your seasonal forecast...except maybe less perturbation of the polar strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 If this has a clue, maybe we wheel around to a robust 7 towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 I’m calling January +1-+2 non BOS stations in SNE with normal snow amounts SNE, above normal NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 You guys got good snow how you think I feel being cut off from every system this winter! Somethings got to give... did I tell you guys about the story... few days ago I saw a flock of geese head south and than a few hours later another flock. Wizard has it it snows 14 days after! 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 So, as I remind myself to once again, NEVER, EVER, EVER get sucked into the idea of ice, I'm moving this January thread from the ash-heap in case other weenies aren't too deflated to continue looking to the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 30, 2019 Author Share Posted December 30, 2019 DT nearly cancelled winter in yesterday's disc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: DT nearly cancelled winter in yesterday's disc His opinion means nothing But he did say things might become favorable again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I thought his opinion meant nothing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, Dan76 said: I thought his opinion meant nothing? It does. Who likes DT? Go back to sleep 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 It's gonna be tough with the MJO progged to go into a high 4/5. Maybe things improve towards the last week in January. Was it 2007 or 2008 when we went from a mild January to a very cold and sleet-filled February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Jan has looked awful for a long time. Only hope is a well timed s/w with a transient cold shot. Jan 20 or after is certainly a possibility. The pig spoke days ago . It sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 There is no pig. In fact the opposite. We’ll have to watch after the 7 for something but as stated before it’s a yo yo look. The SE ridge may flex in response to Aleutian ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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