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DDweatherman

December 16/17 Baby Bump Thump Thread

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image.thumb.png.c218f5b8ebdfdde6e47da9b84484d5f6.png

Notice where there's a sharp thermal gradient on the 850 map. Right along that boundary is where I think precip initially starts as snow then begins to mix as the 850s gradually move north into tomorrow. I think somebody in N - NE MD will see a few if not several hours of frozen before changeover.

At the surface you can see where the difference between dewpoints from the low 20s to the mid-upper 20s right along the Mason dixon line. As the precip moves in, the temperatures will cool down to the lower 30s for a few hours maybe even down to DC. Right now I'm seeing a coating from D.C to around 2 inches just north of the mason dixon line overnight. HRRR and the NAMs look mostly supportive of this idea.

I'd like to add that the current radar looks better than currently modeled. I think some sort of a surprise is coming. Areas that are already down to freezing will most likely see several hours of precip. @C.A.P.E. I think we might wake up to a decent surprise in the morning. Maybe a coating in these parts, more to the north.

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Saw this and wondered if this would affect the radar readings tonight 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=FTM

 

NOUS61 KLWX 160133
FTMLWX
Message Date:  Dec 16 2019 01:39:27

KLWX IS EXPERIENCING CALIBRATION ERRORS THAT ARE CAUSING IT TO READ AROUND 20 TO
 25 DBZ TOO LOW. TECHNICIANS ARE LOOKING INTO THE ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Got some virga on my doorstep out this way on Nexrad. Would love for this to start as early as possible. Get as much snow as possible before the flip.

Imo- you and winterwxluvr have a legit shot at 3". If I get an inch or more I'll be pretty happy. I'm down to 35 and consistent with hrrr temps. Hrrr doesn't get me down to freezing until 3am or so. If I get below freezing by say midnight then expectations change. 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Good luck everyone.  Up at 430 to commute to work or telework depending on what happens overnight.

Be safe brother.  Seems like 430 is the new commute time.  Any later and it sucks

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

31/24. Mesos looking more likely that well n+w stays all frozen . Nams max my yard right around 32 tomorrow.  

Even the Euro gets us no higher than the mid 30's and that isn't until Tuesday afternoon while the GFS gets near 50. 

Down to 30 here now.

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Both NAM’s shifted the heavier precip a good bit north 

looks like the best forcing is to the nw of the city through northern md, but still clips dc.  i'd feel better in loudon/frederick for this one for the elevation as well, but still think dc/bmore should get at least a light snow out of this.

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

CWG saying flakes could breakout between 12 and 2 in the N and W suburbs of DC lol

I’m reading this as about 12 flakes. Could only be 2. LOLz. 

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