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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Yeah, looks like the wave took too long to come E here so the HP is starting to head East into an unfavorable spot....Something to keep an eye on if the weekend event is a Rainer, which is looking more and more likely. 

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah, looks like the wave took too long to come E here so the HP is starting to head East into an unfavorable spot....Something to keep an eye on if the weekend event is a Rainer, which is looking more and more likely. 

interesting how that 1049 high still wedges in and almost looks like a new low is trying to form to the south at hour 192

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7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

While everyone is focused on the weekend storm, check out the GFS @ 150 hrs...awesome spot for TPV and positive tilted wave heading E, HP in great spot....

The key to that system IMO is getting a trough split or de-amplified solution.  If the whole thing phases it's going to cut to Ohio.  With the WAR and positive NAO that is pretty much a given.  But there will be cold in place and a string of highs to the north so IF we can get the northern stream to stay split and the southern piece to cut under we could get a wave up the coast.  

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together.  He is really excited.  But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that.  

Go to Vermont man. Stowe is prime for 12-18" from this one. Sugarbush will probably be good spot too and little more friendly on the pass prices.

Enjoy!!

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The key to that system IMO is getting a trough split or de-amplified solution.  If the whole thing phases it's going to cut to Ohio.  With the WAR and positive NAO that is pretty much a given.  But there will be cold in place and a string of highs to the north so IF we can get the northern stream to stay split and the southern piece to cut under we could get a wave up the coast.  

Something like jan. 2014 would work in this pattern.

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Winds don't look any stronger than for any typical storm in the winter up there.  As of now shouldn't be too bad.  

Trust me, it will absolutely be windy. Anytime you get something that spins up that much its windy up there. But those mountains always half lifts that positioned for windy days. Just might not be able to  get to the "goods" up top.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

2 moisture bombs.  Both cutters.  :weep:

Look on the bright side... it will make us appreciate the storm we just had even more... eh, who am I kidding. I feel a melt building. 

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

2 moisture bombs.  Both cutters.

and its a lock...even at 240 hours

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look on the bright side... it will make us appreciate the storm we just had even more... eh, who am I kidding. I feel a melt building. 

i dont think there is one person on the board when we started seeing the pattern really flip on the weeklies that thought a Jan 25 storm would be rain. Jan 15--20...sure

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This is significant in a big way though. The oppurtunity of major storms, and a stable pattern of cold with long lasting snow cover is  on the table.  

Isotherm did mention if this happens, ( still has to happen ) it raises the bar on severity levels of weather events.  

KABOOM 

 

 

And the SSWE is still going strong. 

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -3.7 m/s 
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -4.6 m/s 2013 
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 67.9 m/s 1989 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think there is one person on the board when we started seeing the pattern really flip on the weeklies that thought a Jan 25 storm would be rain. Jan 15--20...sure

Why there was a WAR there that week... we saw a -pna and a lot of cold around and I think some ignored the pattern wasn't really perfect until the very end of January.  Its not a BAD pattern, but rain is always a threat if its not perfect.  At the time the western ridge was a little better...that has trended west just a small amount, a very minor error for day 15-20 but just enough to take what was a "good but not great" pattern and make it more problematic.  We might still score some frozen during this period.  Later this week some.  Maybe a bit front or back end on one of these next couple waves.  But with the western ridge retreating as far as it has the chances of a big snow are greatly reduced but the pattern is still pretty close to what the long range guidance advertised.  The excellent looks started AFTER the week of the 18-25th and that still looks right.  

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fantasy land gfs shows how a WAR can help us as it brings a wave up that would be suppressed otherwise.  Great blocking after the 1/24 cutter.  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Like I've always said.

If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock.  

Last weekends storm was rain a week out. Rip and read tune in tomorrow for the latest edition 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Like I've always said.

If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock.  

it may budge 5 miles north or south in the next 240 hours though:)

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

fantasy land gfs shows how a WAR can help us as it brings a wave up that would be suppressed otherwise.  Great blocking after the 1/24 cutter.  

Lol...if the Jan 31 is sleet...i think you might even melt down.....I am excited man. Just tired of waiting. I want a winter where we get a La Nina in December and Nino for the rest of the winter.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Like I've always said.

If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock.  

Your 10" snowstorm the other day was rain at 300 hours lol  The big 2016 blizzard was a rainstorm on the euro at day 10.  The February storm in 2015 was a rainstorm at day 7.  Several of our snow events in 2014 were rain on the guidance from range.  

Rainstorms appear to be "locks" because overall the thermal boundary does seem to trend north not south from range on guidance.  Also there is a MUCH larger areal coverage of any storm that is rain.  And we typically don't closely follow the slight adjustments in a rainstorm that might mean .5 vs .75 qpf but they happen.  I have followed plenty of rainstorms for some reason or another...sometimes just to test out something with the models, and there are the same errors.  This is just perception bias.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Lol...if the Jan 31 is sleet...i think you might even melt down.....I am excited man. Just tired of waiting. I want a winter where we get a La Nina in December and Nino for the rest of the winter.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

 

 

It dumps 6-10" of snow first...so the sleet and freezing rain would just be to harden and protect our snowpack for the coming month!

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Is that a triple phaser at the end of the GFS run?  Not sure I know how to spot one.  

Not really. The trough axis is so far west that it allows height rises in the east. Move the trough axis east and it's a suppressed look. It's not even that strong of a shortwave but it's able to tap abundant moisture from the pac and gulf and eject it our way. IMHO- the end of the run gfs solution is just random chaos during a large scale longwave pattern shift

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12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. 

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