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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Should we start a new Mid long term and stretch long range? This one got muddy and ugly there and things are different than they looked at one time. 138 pages is a huge thread!

We need to be cleaner in general! We banter too many times (guilty myself) - and the bad vibes of the last page just suck for everyone!

 

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23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

But its not a HUGE player. We do get WAR from time to time. It seems you are making a big deal out of this because you predicted it would be a prominent feature in your winter outlook.

Sure there is no doubt. But I have been wrong up til just recently because it all but completely vanished or was at least put on the back burner with all the mjo and ssw talk. Let's look forward and hope the weeklies et al verify and never look back. Dec and most of Jan til recently blew chunks. Cautiously optimistic here still. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

?  In November the last time the war formed and was progged to migrate to the NAO it did.  NAO ranked for 10 days late November. Just because we didn’t get a snowstorm doesn’t mean the pattern didn’t happen. 

08247FF6-C31A-450C-8A6A-664017B8E0D1.thumb.gif.274c98cde541bd9079f1dd49a3f116fb.gif

Hopefully these looks moving ahead stick and key features migrate to where they are being progged and have some lasting power not just a week and done. Tho at this point I will take what we get. 

Btw is it odd that you guys got your best snows (general DC area) with a pos nao as opposed to the rebounding neg transition to pos back in Nov? That nov nao flip (archambault?) is traditionally when we score more often than during  a sustained pos nao no? 

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26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Should we start a new Mid long term and stretch long range? This one got muddy and ugly there and things are different than they looked at one time. 138 pages is a huge thread!

We need to be cleaner in general! We banter too many times (guilty myself) - and the bad vibes of the last page just suck for everyone!

 

I’m wondering when a thread might be started for the 20th-21st?  I get that we don’t like to jinx our threats, but it looks like there is either going to be rain then a flash freeze and then snow, or snow, rain, ice, or whatever. My concern is that a lot of people are traveling for the MLK weekend..  it’s now 6 days away. 

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24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hopefully these looks moving ahead stick and key features migrate to where they are being progged and have some lasting power not just a week and done. Tho at this point I will take what we get. 

Btw is it odd that you guys got your best snows (general DC area) with a pos nao as opposed to the rebounding neg transition to pos back in Nov? That nov nao flip (archambault?) is traditionally when we score more often than during  a sustained pos nao no? 

November is a bit early and the NAO correlates more later in the season. Also often blocking during transition months is less stable. And finally this one is coupled to the sswe so it should have more staying power like the blocking last March. 

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10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m wondering when a thread might be started for the 20th-21st?  I get that we don’t like to jinx our threats, but it looks like there is either going to be rain then a flash freeze and then snow, or snow, rain, ice, or whatever. My concern is that a lot of people are traveling for the MLK weekend..  it’s now 6 days away. 

Way too many unknowns. About all we can really say is that a threat exists and it maybe a flash freeze, snow, ice possible but could be rain and a quick cutoff (we do not do post-frontal snow all that well). We have to get closer to the event and have some sense of consistency. If we lived in PA or north, I would consider it more something worth it. I think we are 2 days (at least) early on this idea. 

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

here you go, sorry it's so late

First the pattern is evolving as expected. 

Thanks @psuhoffman I will check it out this morning.  I do see the overnight hours brought some more confidence in the NAO going negative and other positives changes. 

As for the strat, continued indications of downward propagation, ( at bottom )  

Alos reading from bluewave this is possibly the first time in Jan the MJO went from 8 to 4 and 5 skipping 1, and 2 and 3 , crazy, right.  This explains the temp swings next week but looking at the MJO down the road it should coincide with the better phases later month around the time the -NAO develops. And the EPS made some changes towards the GEFS ( as purduewx80 summarizes below )

From a few minutes ago -  Courtesy of @purduewx80   <<EPS made some changes towards the GEFS in the extended. Even if this weekend doesn't pan out, there is pretty good agreement that storm helps turn the NAO negative early next week. Many of the ensembles now bridge that NW Atlantic ridge with a NE Pac ridge in a couple of weeks, which locks the PV in place somewhere between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. A fun and intense pattern by the looks of it. >>>

And the Judah post :

 

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not giving up yet59d8b1802153c2e49205679f0a78852b.jpg

Not giving up on this one until Friday.  Need to see the little wave come through on Thursday night first

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28 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks @psuhoffman I will check it out this morning.  I do see the overnight hours brought some more confidence in the NAO going negative and other positives changes. 

As for the strat, continued indications of downward propagation, ( at bottom )  

Alos reading from bluewave this is possibly the first time in Jan the MJO went from 8 to 4 and 5 skipping 1, and 2 and 3 , crazy, right.  This explains the temp swings next week but looking at the MJO down the road it should coincide with the better phases later month around the time the -NAO develops. And the EPS made some changes towards the GEFS ( as purduewx80 summarizes below )

From a few minutes ago -  Courtesy of @purduewx80   <<EPS made some changes towards the GEFS in the extended. Even if this weekend doesn't pan out, there is pretty good agreement that storm helps turn the NAO negative early next week. Many of the ensembles now bridge that NW Atlantic ridge with a NE Pac ridge in a couple of weeks, which locks the PV in place somewhere between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. A fun and intense pattern by the looks of it. >>>

And the Judah post :

 

 

 

 

 

Good stuff. If we can get similar results to last years sswe induced blocking only centered in Feb instead of March we will be good. 

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I feel like this Sunday is setting up to be the classic rain then wind then the huge temperature drop. At least in my neck of the woods(Baltimore). Still several days out so maybe it can change, just has that look. 

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Snow means on the GEFS are useless in general but sometimes there are subtle "tells" I like to look for.  Forget the LOL totals around us, but notice the fairly significant snowfall down along the lower Mississippi Valley into the TN Valley to our southwest.  Almost all of that south of the TN/KY border is from day 10-16 and that is a pretty good flag that we might be in line for a typical STJ based "blocking" storm track out of the gulf.  Something to keep and eye on as we head into the period post January 25.  

GEFSsnow.thumb.png.1b32e75eaff9338e3a9ad20c4656da52.png

The EPS is less enthused.  Not because they are not cold but because they seem to favor the STJ shutting down once we move past the 3rd system coming next week so they have a cold/dry look.  However, I have seen that before plenty of times during extreme blocking regimes where at range the EPS is dry only to pick up on a threat once it gets towards day 10.  We will see.   I will admit it will be a little frustrating if we get a string of rainstorms and then an arctic front clears and we go dry for weeks on end.  Too soon to worry about that yet.  

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Just now, Steve25 said:

I feel like this Sunday is setting up to be the classic rain then wind then the huge temperature drop. At least in my neck of the woods(Baltimore). Still several days out so maybe it can change, just has that look. 

thanks

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS is less enthused.  Not because they are not cold but because they seem to favor the STJ shutting down once we move past the 3rd system coming next week so they have a cold/dry look.  However, I have seen that before plenty of times during extreme blocking regimes where at range the EPS is dry only to pick up on a threat once it gets towards day 10.  We will see.   I will admit it will be a little frustrating if we get a string of rainstorms and then an arctic front clears and we go dry for weeks on end.  Too soon to worry about that yet.  

Always things to worry about in the weather world. Did we not have that dry look before in very early December ?

It was seasonable cold I recall, but about 12 days in a row of no rain nor snow.  I remember telling my daughter ever since I put the Christmas lights up outside it has been dry. I put them up earlier this early versus most  years as I thought we were going to get nailed near mid month, alas that did not happen.    

I do feel there will be storm oppurtunities if the pattern as depicted sets up.

 

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23 minutes ago, frd said:

Always things to worry about in the weather world. Did we not have that dry look before in very early December ?

It was seasonable cold I recall, but about 12 days in a row of no rain nor snow.  I remember telling my daughter ever since I put the Christmas lights up outside it has been dry. I put them up earlier this early versus most  years as I thought we were going to get nailed near mid month, alas that did not happen.    

I do feel there will be storm oppurtunities if the pattern as depicted sets up.

 

I was just talking to someone yesterday about my lights.  Right after I put them up, we went into a snow drought.  The day I took them down, it snowed.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@psuhoffman I'm just taking a different approach than you I guess. With everything looking like rainbows and unicorns on the horizon I always see that setting people, myself included, up for heartbreak. Believe me I'm not trying to be a Deb by any means....but I'm alternatively trying to see features which might throw a wrench into things. Guidance can argue for one thing, you and I can debate another, but when all is said and done all of us could be incorrect because the weather does what the weather wants.  Let's continue the discussion tho...I enjoy being in here sharing various viewpoints. There should not be anything wrong with that.

That is kind of what I do with specific events to get a feel for "what could go wrong" so that I can see if it things start to unravel.  BUT...you are doing that at range regarding a whole pattern without ANY evidence to support any of the "fears".  The problem with that is ANYTHING could go wrong.  Maybe the PV drops too much and parks over the lakes for 2 weeks and we go cold/dry.  Maybe the guidance is all wrong and the NAO never tanks.  The MJO and SOI are incredibly unpredictable...maybe the SOI spikes back to +20 and the MJO goes into another 3std slow arse tour of the warm phases and the whole thing falls apart.  Maybe we just get incredibly unlucky and a few storms go just south of us and a few go just north.  There are so many variables that COULD go wrong from that range.  But there is no evidence to support any of them at this time.  Given that it feels like worrying just for the sake of worrying.  

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is kind of what I do with specific events to get a feel for "what could go wrong" so that I can see if it things start to unravel.  BUT...you are doing that at range regarding a whole pattern without ANY evidence to support any of the "fears".  The problem with that is ANYTHING could go wrong.  Maybe the PV drops too much and parks over the lakes for 2 weeks and we go cold/dry.  Maybe the guidance is all wrong and the NAO never tanks.  The MJO and SOI are incredibly unpredictable...maybe the SOI spikes back to +20 and the MJO goes into another 3std slow arse tour of the warm phases and the whole thing falls apart.  Maybe we just get incredibly unlucky and a few storms go just south of us and a few go just north.  There are so many variables that COULD go wrong from that range.  But there is no evidence to support any of them at this time.  Given that it feels like worrying just for the sake of worrying.  

I just lost my breakfast even thinking about that lol

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I just lost my breakfast even thinking about that lol

If we fail that is the most likely way IMO...the MJO collapsed quickly once it got to cold phases...and it is now racing back towards warm phases and correcting stronger and stronger into them.  HOWEVER, as of right now the SOI is cooperating and the impacts of the warm phases seem to be muted somewhat...and by Feb the MJO looks to progress either towards null or colder phases.  Either way... I don't love that look.  That is one thing I got wrong about the winter.  Given the SST the thinking was the MJO would be muted but what little influence it had would be centered on cold phases.  That has not been the cast as it obviously has a bias towards the warm phases this winter.  MAG in the PA thread showed some of the MJO data from a few of our analog years and some of our snowy periods came during warm mjo phases in modoki ninos so I am not overly alarmed but it is something worth looking out for.  I would be more concerned about that than the WAR.  

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman Do you have WB access for the Euro and the EPO forecast? I heard the EPO really crashes in the next 8 to 12 days, is that true ?  

Epo is currently negative and in general will be negative for the next 2 weeks and beyond. Every piece of guidance has a strong neg epo d8-15 and likely beyond 

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

icon really ramps that sunday storm up in the plains.  might need a 1050 high to tame it, ala pd2 lol.

Unfortunately there's no mechanism to lock hp over the top. The war let's hp easily slide east as the storm approaches and the hp behind is in a bad position too. Imho- a west track is practically a lock at this point. 

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