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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Did UK trend south significantly from the last run? That's what I'd be looking for.. 

UK is the most progressive of the 12z suite so far which allows it to track further south.  Dr. No should be along with his wet blanket shortly.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

UK is the most progressive of the 12z suite so far which allows it to track further south.  Dr. No should be along with his wet blanket shortly.

Not even close with the lead wave or any potential trailing wave. 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

UK is the most progressive of the 12z suite so far which allows it to track further south.  Dr. No should be along with his wet blanket shortly.

Wow, you are right, rain all the way up to Maine including NYC, Boston , ugly.  2 meter temps upper 50's. on Monday 00Z 

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8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Did UK trend south significantly from the last run? That's what I'd be looking for.. 

It shows a bit more snow for my area than the previous run. I don't have full access to that model though, I've only seen a handful of maps.

On another note, I think the UKMET love fest is over. 

Euro = :raining::raining::maprain::maprain::maprain:

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Wow, you are right, rain all the way up to Maine including NYC, Boston , ugly. 

It's a hot garbage disaster.  

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Time to accept reality and get excited for witnessing a crazy temperature swing and a proper flash freeze. 55 in DCA at 126hr, 24 at 132hr.

Would be nice to  get a consolation 1" - 3" on the backside with the deep freeze.  Cold and dry is meaningless unless there's at least a few inches of snow on the ground.

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28 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The 13/14 winter was just insane for the amount of events. Here's my event log from that winter:

12/8-9/13: 1.5” snow to accumulating sleet to freezing rain (>.1” glaze) 

12/10/13: 2” slop that had trouble accumulating during the day

1/2-3/14: 4” overachiever, lasting past midnight. Street accumulation on Old Georgetown after dark

1/10/14: Ice on sidewalks from rain in above freezing air temps

1/21/14: 6.5” Biggest storm in 3 seasons—road accumulations even onto Rockville Pike. 5-8” MoCo range

1/29/14: 0.5” overnight

2/4-5/14: ~0.2” glaze of ice. Severe ice storm in Frederick through Carroll and northern Baltimore counties-- >40% power outages.

2/9/14: 0.5” Sunday snow

2/12-13/14: ~15.5” total—13” by 8 am, Rockville Pike completely snow covered at 6 am—drizzle/light rain lull until 3 pm. ULL dropped 2.5” very wet snow that stuck to streets again. 12-20” MoCo range

2/18/14: a bit less than 1” overnight

2/25/14: a bit more than 1” between 9 am and noon—grass and car and Harris Teeter sidewalk only

2/26/14: 2 ¼” between 5:15 am and around 10:30 am. 

3/3/14: 5 ¼” after a changeover from rain and sleet by 5 am. Temps dropping through to the lower 20’s by dawn to the teens by noon. Road coverage complete all around my building and in parking lot across the street (plow couldn’t keep up with the snow). Heaviest/lowest visibility band was the last one that swept through between 12:10 pm and 1:00 pm. As temps plunged down into the single digits, any road not completely plowed turned into a sheet of solid ice.  4-7” MoCo range

3/16-17/14: 9”, less on roads. All roads covered overnight in heavy snow with plunging temps, down to low 20’s by dawn. 7-10” MoCo range

3/25/14: 2 ¾”, no road accumulations, but covered bbq patio paved area. Started around 8 am, ended around 7:30 pm.

3/30/14: ¾” surprise heavy snow dumping as fast as it melted to keep on some concrete surfaces. 

4/15/14: T-0.1” end squall of sleet to snow after heavy rain

 

Monthly totals:

December- 3.5”

January- 11”

February- 20.25”

March- 17.75”

 

Total: 52.5”

Great detailed notes. I mentioned yesterday that we had a lousy pattern in '13-'14 and '14-'15 but it just seemed to want to snow.  Lots of of moderate events. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would be nice to  get a consolation 1" - 3" on the backside with the deep freeze.  Cold and dry is meaningless unless there's at least a few inches of snow on the ground.

Looks like the cold outruns the precipitation by a wide margin this run, no hints of a trailing wave I can decipher. 

 

Edit: I mean precip outruns cold

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would be nice to  get a consolation 1" - 3" on the backside with the deep freeze.  Cold and dry is meaningless unless there's at least a few inches of snow on the ground.

Very true, what good is 10 degrees and no snow cover. So, if the Euro is correct we lose the snow cover and have to wait for the next oppurtunity window near the 24th. 

A bit frustrating, even knowing Isotherm said 5 days ago this would be a high risk forecast for snow on the coastal plain, and likely rain. I imagine it could still change but not worth the time in my opinion. All I can say is, we better not run dry when the better blocking sets in. So typical, like last year, early Jan as an example.  

   

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Just now, frd said:

Very true, what good is 10 degrees and no snow cover. So, if the Euro is correct we lose the snow cover and have to wait for the next oppurtunity window near the 24th. 

A bit frustrating, even knowing Isotherm said 5 days ago this would be a high risk forecast for snow on the coastal plain, and likely rain. I imagine it could still change but not worth the time in my opinion. All I can say is, we better not run dry when the better blocking sets in. So typical, like last year, early Jan as an example.  

   

Cold doesn't look nearly as impressive for early next week on the Euro either.  It's a pretty awful run.

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17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Time to accept reality and get excited for witnessing a crazy temperature swing and a proper flash freeze. 55 in DCA at 126hr, 24 at 132hr.

Euro goes from 55 to 26 between 9am and noon.  That is impressive.

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold doesn't look nearly as impressive for early next week on the Euro either.  It's a pretty awful run.

Yea, the 12z euro is a disaster start to finish. I guess we can look on the bright side... it can only get better from here

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the 12z euro is a disaster start to finish. I guess we can look on the bright side... it can only get better from here

By mid March, all should finally be right in time for the magical mangled 4 inch March 18 storm.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the 12z euro is a disaster start to finish. I guess we can look on the bright side... it can only get better from here

I have not looked and at this point taking a break,  but I bet the folks on Long Island, Boston and other locals are really frustrated.

You had your 11 inches, I had 4 inches here this past weekend, and we had the November event and areas to our South had the MECS in December, but those folks must be depressed. 

Actually we all knew better to a degree that this event was not going to go our way, still amazed by rain though very far North of us.    

Hopefuly the real pattern on weeklies will make everyone happy.  

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That D9-10 storm tho. Now that's a cutter. GL blizzard and rain to N Maine.

Ah the HM storm.   

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Just now, frd said:

I have not looked and at this point taking a break,  but I bet the folks on Long Island, Boston and other locals are really frustrated.

You had your 11 inches, I had 4 inches here this past weekend, and we had the November event and areas to our South had the MECS in December, but those folks must be depressed. 

Actually we all knew better to a degree that this event was not going to go our way, still amazed by rain though very far North of us.    

Hopefuly the real pattern on weeklies will make everyone happy.  

We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. 

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Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year?

This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

 

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2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year?

This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

 

More than half way at DCA I suppose.  I think its like 13 or 14 inches.  still won't ease the pain if we don't see one more flake however.   

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6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year?

This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

They need a few more inches to reach climo. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. 

Here is the rough outline for Ji's melt-

December- punted the whole month

January- punted 3 weeks, one good storm

February- epic blocking better deliver or chill, psu, and cape are getting trolled indefinitely

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah he has been talking about that for a while hasn't he?

Yes, he has.

He still seems very upbeat about late Jan and Feb, so time will tell.   ( to me late Jan is like maybe the 28th so I am not sure what date he was targeting for a Midwest blizzard )  

I bet he posts on that today, as he did say he would follow up.  ( I think he is member here too, as you know he posts only his feed I guess ) 

But, he needs to post here to save time really. Time is short you know to scan social media.  

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That D9-10 storm tho. Now that's a cutter. GL blizzard and rain to N Maine.

The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO.

 

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. 

So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

They need a few more inches to reach climo. 

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

 

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Euro goes from 55 to 26 between 9am and noon.  That is impressive.

That would be close to a record three hour drop for me, all time is November 1995 from 62 to 30 in 3 hours, 32 defrees

Mega Front Incoming 

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