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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west.  

It is more like soggy cold bread - and all snow traces get washed away before the ground becomes frozen solid . But agree.. the set up is poor. Would need a miracle to change! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unfortunately there's no mechanism to lock hp over the top. The war let's hp easily slide east as the storm approaches and the hp behind is in a bad position too. Imho- a west track is practically a lock at this point. 

yea i think we'd need this to transfer to the carolina coast or something to make it work.  as is, it's an app runner, though i wouldn't really expect that based off of the high pressure to the north.  they look at least somewhat favorable.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west.  

The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up

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Looks like the ICON never gets the region out of the 30's for the weekend deal.  Serious wedge there.  Northern MD could have quite an event if that verified.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up

True...this one never really had a chance, imo. I do wish we had something else to track...but, it seems like it's gonna be a bit boring for the next week or so (unless our NEXT regularly scheduled weekend precipitation has a chance of being frozen)

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up

So you're not totally giving up on the trailing wave?

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

So you're not totally giving up on the trailing wave?

I'll still watch for it. Absolutely within the envelope of possible solutions. We're losing the signal for it but that can change. Need the idea back before thurs or fri at the latest. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up

Our best chance to steal frozen from the next couple waves after this weeks light event would be an energy split and a wave on the tail of the trough. The waves are spaced too far apart to have much chance of front end frozen it seems. 

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Really looking more likely that at some point a severe drop in the AO will occur.  Concensus grows, as does the increased risk of a significant snowfall near Jan 24 th based on the ensembles.  

 

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

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everything is going to cut west for at least the next 8-9 days....Next chance is around the 25th give or take and then again around the 30th.   Wouldn't be surprised if we get some small amounts from clippers as we get into  later next week through month end as well.

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Our best chance to steal frozen from the next couple waves after this weeks light event would be an energy split and a wave on the tail of the trough. The waves are spaced too far apart to have much chance of front end frozen it seems. 

It's painful to be so close to the heavy snow in southern PA (according to the ICON), but just not close enough. I would've considered chasing if it wasn't going to be such an icy mess on the way back. Or maybe even the ICON is too cold.

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Just now, Fozz said:

It's painful to be so close to the heavy snow in southern PA (according to the ICON), but just not close enough. I would've considered chasing if it wasn't going to be such an icy mess on the way back.

I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together.  He is really excited.  But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that.  

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GFS is a heavy rainer. It is still keeping the second wave idea alive though. I think DC still has a chance with that. We are probably done out here for this weekend though. I am almost wishing it would cut further west at this point. We can score a couple of inches on the front end then. But that doesnt look very likely.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together.  He is really excited.  But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that.  

Wow that sounds awesome. Hope you enjoy this one! Share some pics too.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together.  He is really excited.  But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that.  

I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight!

 

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight!

Storm doesn't look all that windy in northern New England.

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4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight!

 

Winds don't look any stronger than for any typical storm in the winter up there.  As of now shouldn't be too bad.  

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ya - ok - I just ran through it - the cold is rough! LOL!

 

The cold is worth consideration.  Right now its borderline...if it looks too frigid though I will have to call it off.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together.  He is really excited.  But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that.  

My first ski trip with my son as well this weekend. But we're headed to Massanutten Friday through Monday.  Not sure we'll get any snow but rain this weekend. The models don't look favorable for that part of VA. Massanutten is a hill compared to the mountains in the northeast.  

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Just now, adelphi_sky said:

My first ski trip with my son as well this weekend. But we're headed to Massanutten Friday through Monday.  Not sure we'll get any snow but rain this weekend. The models don't look favorable for that part of VA. Massanutten is a hill compared to the mountains in the northeast.  

1000' vertical is pretty decent especially for here. Enough to call it a mountain.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The cold is worth consideration.  Right now its borderline...if it looks too frigid though I will have to call it off.  

NNE will be way too cold on Monday. I don't think a little child will handle single digit temps very well.

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8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

While everyone is focused on the weekend storm, check out the GFS @ 150 hrs...awesome spot for TPV and positive tilted wave heading E, HP in great spot....

Looks like the Sunday storm tries to setup in 50/50 for added support.

Eta: meh transient

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