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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1050 high in New England and it still cuts LOL

Per Teninch Johnson that should offer our best snow situation. Maybe we still have a chance

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. 

just hug the ukmet...come on you know the handbook!

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. 

Thankfully we banked this past storm or there would be lots of meltdowns (me included)!  A good storm buys a couple of weeks of crap.  

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Per Teninch Johnson that should offer our best snow situation. Maybe we still have a chance

Still waiting for him to explain how a low is going to move northeast out of WV through NC without a transfer.  

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somehow the UKMET Is the #2 model but for our backyard...to me its up there with the CRAS 84NAM and the Wave3

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16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

While its an OP run at range, that is some serious cold on the GFS.  

4A7A9B0A-8465-4885-A156-3BA6874635A2.png

2 cutters possibly followed by a SE snowstorm. Ji may have an epic melt.

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Still waiting for him to explain how a low is going to move northeast out of WV through NC without a transfer.  

Never said it would. You want to join the dipshit chirping crowd also?

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml

UKMET

Subjectively Observed Bias
Geographical location of bias
Annual/Diurnal attribute
Submitted by
Date Submitted
Operational Implication
Suspected Cause
Seems better than GFS with forecast of phasing of systems in northern and southern branch of jet
North American middle latitudes
Anytime
NCEP WPC
Since fall of 2001
When GFS is showing phasing of systems beyond 84 hours, check UKMET to see if solution is consistent
GDAS ?

Weenie translation: blah blah blah UKMET "better than GFS blah blah beyond 84 hrs" :ph34r:

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7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This will not cut

i don't know that i buy the cutters, but i think app runner is an issue (though i suppose that classifies as a cutter).  it also doesn't look there's going to be ideal cad developing out ahead of it because of that southeast ridge.  it's a setup worth monitoring, but i could see how it could still be an apps runner even with the favored banana highs over top.

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8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it. Or more like clinging for dear life :lol:

Our area is famous for going on heaters with extended crap periods in between. If the weekend deal ends up morphing into a measurable event it will start to feel like it "just wants to snow". 13-14 is a prime example and Feb/Mar 2015 as well. I don't really like much about the weekend setup but there is still a path to victory. 

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s coming. 

A6EBA733-6371-4794-BFF3-BC1672DA5E35.png

I am interested to see what analogs start to pop up as the better look gets into range.  But going back over the last several days the flip of the NAO is not fixed in time around the 26th on the GEFS and making progress closer after it was initially stalling and delaying for a while.  The EPS has been consistently advertising that time for the flip.  

I am honestly not sure what a full latitude trough like that along with blocking would yield.  It's such a rare extreme pattern there aren't a lot of good analogs and I am curious what shows up.  After that as the PV weakens and heights rise across Canada we enter a more classic looking regime similar to 2010.  Should be fun.  

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our area is famous for going on heaters with extended crap periods in between. If the weekend deal ends up morphing into a measurable event it will start to feel like it "just wants to snow". 13-14 is a prime example and Feb/Mar 2015 as well. I don't really like much about the weekend setup but there is still a path to victory. 

I recall a lot of talk in 2013-14 (especially the first half) about how the pattern wasn't all that great. The NAO sucked but the EPO was amazing, and normally it's not a reliable setup in our area, but somehow that winter ended up having more snowstorms than any other that I'm old enough to remember.

I think this weekend event will come down to luck in this less than stellar setup... seems like a classic "thread the needle" type of event.

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Just now, Fozz said:

I recall a lot of talk in 2013-14 (especially the first half) about how the pattern wasn't all that great. The NAO sucked but the EPO was amazing, and normally it's not a reliable setup, but somehow that winter ended up having more snowstorms than any other that I'm old enough to remember.

I think this weekend event will come down to luck in this less than stellar setup... seems like a classic "thread the needle" type of event.

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

Yep, I remember a lot of talk in late January about a flip to a warm February. Never even came close to happening, even though we had a bit of a break late in the month before going back to deep winter. The mid-Feb KU storm looked pretty good from mid-range, but I definitely remember the two March storms trending south due to the overwhelming PV.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

Yep, it was winter in bizarro world that year.  Up was down, hot was cold, and night was day.

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The 13/14 winter was just insane for the amount of events. Here's my event log from that winter:

12/8-9/13: 1.5” snow to accumulating sleet to freezing rain (>.1” glaze) 

12/10/13: 2” slop that had trouble accumulating during the day

1/2-3/14: 4” overachiever, lasting past midnight. Street accumulation on Old Georgetown after dark

1/10/14: Ice on sidewalks from rain in above freezing air temps

1/21/14: 6.5” Biggest storm in 3 seasons—road accumulations even onto Rockville Pike. 5-8” MoCo range

1/29/14: 0.5” overnight

2/4-5/14: ~0.2” glaze of ice. Severe ice storm in Frederick through Carroll and northern Baltimore counties-- >40% power outages.

2/9/14: 0.5” Sunday snow

2/12-13/14: ~15.5” total—13” by 8 am, Rockville Pike completely snow covered at 6 am—drizzle/light rain lull until 3 pm. ULL dropped 2.5” very wet snow that stuck to streets again. 12-20” MoCo range

2/18/14: a bit less than 1” overnight

2/25/14: a bit more than 1” between 9 am and noon—grass and car and Harris Teeter sidewalk only

2/26/14: 2 ¼” between 5:15 am and around 10:30 am. 

3/3/14: 5 ¼” after a changeover from rain and sleet by 5 am. Temps dropping through to the lower 20’s by dawn to the teens by noon. Road coverage complete all around my building and in parking lot across the street (plow couldn’t keep up with the snow). Heaviest/lowest visibility band was the last one that swept through between 12:10 pm and 1:00 pm. As temps plunged down into the single digits, any road not completely plowed turned into a sheet of solid ice.  4-7” MoCo range

3/16-17/14: 9”, less on roads. All roads covered overnight in heavy snow with plunging temps, down to low 20’s by dawn. 7-10” MoCo range

3/25/14: 2 ¾”, no road accumulations, but covered bbq patio paved area. Started around 8 am, ended around 7:30 pm.

3/30/14: ¾” surprise heavy snow dumping as fast as it melted to keep on some concrete surfaces. 

4/15/14: T-0.1” end squall of sleet to snow after heavy rain

 

Monthly totals:

December- 3.5”

January- 11”

February- 20.25”

March- 17.75”

 

Total: 52.5”

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

My favorite line from that year by you @Bob Chill was that if the atmosphere would fart and it would somehow snow on us. I laughed and laughed, but it was a special time! Never had I seen so many systems start as rain and NE snow storms on forecast models, push south and cause us snow! It did it again and again, and even one time pushed from New York snow to the southern half of Va! Fun times!

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11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

For all the weenies who want a closer look :weenie:

UKMET-1-15-2019.jpg.60142264c952d7799aea620e50f28e3c.jpg

worth noting that for areas 30+ miles SW of DC, a 1-2" of that is from Friday's weak system. As for DC - that's all on the backend of the weekend system. 

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