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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Week 5 is basically ridiculous on the weeklies. We only need it to be half right to score. The real fun starts when blocking gets so strong that SC scores huge while we have endless sunny days below freezing.

Week 4 and 5 on the weeklies made me blush.

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41 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


Funny....the coldest air I have ever experienced was in VT. 12 hours before the blizzard of 96 I was leaving Killington trying to beat the snow home. Bank clock in Rutland read -29. Once I hit Reading PA is was a serious white knuckler all the way to FDK.

 

I lived in Vermont for 7 years. Locals considered it a cold morning if the inside of your nose immediately froze when you went outside, which kicked in at around -15. That is a sensation you’ll never forget after you feel it once 

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Thanks, valuable contribution!

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Latest from NWS: 

A more 
significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all 
guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave 
trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday 
night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, 
and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the 
eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly 
dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the 
storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach 
into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our 
southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end 
up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with 
high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of 
an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past 
weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly 
warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of 
deterministic....blah blah
 

 

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1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Latest from NWS: 

A more 
significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all 
guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave 
trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday 
night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, 
and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the 
eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly 
dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the 
storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach 
into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our 
southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end 
up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with 
high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of 
an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past 
weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly 
warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of 
deterministic....blah blah

 

 

Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol

Maybe the shutdown is getting to them...

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol

I thought the very same thing. 

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9 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Latest from NWS: 

A more 
significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all 
guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave 
trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday 
night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, 
and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the 
eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly 
dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the 
storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach 
into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our 
southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end 
up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with 
high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of 
an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past 
weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly 
warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of 
deterministic....blah blah

 

 

In other words, they're saying there's a chance!

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Wonder if the models lock onto the blocking and makes verification skils higher in terms of better forecasts. 

Lately per Ryan both the GFS and Euro doing well. For the GFS a big step up.   

   

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Icon looks good for the weekend event, maintains  a colder solution . Seems to move off the Tidewater region and travels up to the near the BM.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Icon looks good for the weekend event, maintains  a colder solution . Seems to move off the Tidewater region and travels up to the near the BM.

 

 

It is an ice storm. And a nasty one at that. Rain falling into the low 20s out this way.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe the shutdown is getting to them...

Uh-oh...If this goes on through the week, the posts are probably gonna sound like: "blah blah weather blah blah cols stormy blah...."

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It is an ice storm. And a nasty one at that. Rain falling into the low 20s out this way.

Are you sure it’s zr and not sleet? For the sake of all our modern livelihoods, I really hope it’s sleet.

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9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Are you sure it’s zr and not sleet I really hope it’s sleet.

Dont know precip type. Only that the 850's are roasting and the surface is in the low 20's. It would be bad. really bad.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ha.  Good post.   You look at the precip panel and you would swear it's like 50 and just rain.

You would think right? But what's really odd is the icon never flips 10m winds to south. Check all the panels leading in and as it passes. Northerly flow the whole time. Best i can tell the model develops low pressure along the baroclinic zone off the coast and it deflects the ripping south winds into the atlantic. Our area never loses northerly surface flow during the entire event. 

icon_mslp_wind_neus_47.png

 

The red flag is i cant recall a single winter storm with this track that doesn't give us a dose of warm sector.

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44 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder if the models lock onto the blocking and makes verification skils higher in terms of better forecasts. 

Lately per Ryan both the GFS and Euro doing well. For the GFS a big step up.   

   

Shutdown must be over

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

And here comes the gfs with more confluence. Will be colder. Seasonal trend at work? Lol

Definitely more confluence, but I don't think it will be enough for us.  But maybe it's making a move toward what we want.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Definitely more confluence, but I don't think it will be enough for us.  But maybe it's making a move toward what we want.

It's a difficult road to get that lead wave to not rain on us. 2-3 more ticks like that and we'll get a thump before the flip. Still in the game for now at least. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is a potent second wave on the GFS. Dont know if its going to help us though.

DC gets into the snow at 141. A little late for those of us out west.

Prob a good sign that it held onto the idea of a trailer at least.  It's a razor thin margin between nothing and something and we'll get a lot of looks next 2-3 days before it's mostly locked in.

Interested in the gefs to see if the hive mentality kicks in or if it diverges from the op. 

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