RockabilyJunior

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  1. I mentioned this before, but it seems to me like while the CMC is very snow happy, it is also a high recall snowstorm model. By that I mean if the CMC says no snow, then there is no snow. When there is snow, the CMC showed snow (and probably over did the totals). On the other hand, most of the time the CMC shows snow it doesn't pan out. So if the CMC is showing snow, that is a good start. I know the pattern is a bad when when it isn't showing anything. Hopefully we can get some other models showing the same storm.
  2. That's what I keep thinking, and then I remember that I'm just happy we even got any snow. This winter has so far been a nice change from the previous two where I think all the snow basically came in March, and didn't really stick or stay around long. It's been snowing pretty consistently the whole time here too! It just doesn't want to snow enough to accumulate.
  3. I'm getting really sick of this Baltimore dry air. On Sunday, I was under the radar the whole day as it snowed all around me while almost nothing fell. Today, same thing. Very light snow just started in downtown Batimore.
  4. Agreed! A climo reminder for the area (Baltimore) The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March. Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20% for the weekend. That's what I tell myself every time there is a storm to track. We would expect on average that one of these storms coming our way over the next week or two will deliver some snow again.
  5. The last few years (March 2015, 2017, 2018) have been among the best winter months of the whole season. Especially for snow, but even for cold. Sure sun angle causes problems, but around and before march 21 it's still more likely to be snowing when the sun is set than when it's not, and the storms in march always seemed juiced, so that the rates seem to overcome sun angle problems anyway. So a small climo reminder (For Baltimore at least) The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March. Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20%. While it's great to look at long range models, and there is some incredible analysis of them on this site, they only have so much predictive power. Snowfall is so non-linear (i.e. freezing line makes all the difference) that having the temperature off by the slightest bit and the track off by the slightest bit can be the difference between 55 and rain, and 25 and snow. We know almost certainly that there is going to be a fairly big storm this weekend with a lot of moisture. Beyond that we really don't know all that much. Let's just sit back and wait to see. Crazier things have happened, including the snow totals that just occurred, as many others have pointed out. We'll know more tomorrow and Thursday even though it's appearing less likely that we see only snow.
  6. I know the verification scores are low for the CMC, and that it often doesn't agree with the other models, but it seems to me that if anything, it's a little too snow/cold happy for our area compared to other models. Can anyone confirm or rebut? I don't really ever get my hopes up for a storm until the CMC shows something, even if most of them don't pan out. This is all speculation though based on 5 or so years of following this forum, and I'm curious what others have to say.
  7. I measured 4 inches this morning towards the end of the last real burst of snow. Other than a light on and off dusting I haven't had anything since about 10 or 11am. I'm right next to 83 less than a mile south of the train station.
  8. Don't worry. I'm under the dark blue on the bottom side of the Baltimore dot and what's fallen has only been enough to give a light dusting.
  9. Any chance this moistens up and we get another inch or so out of this?
  10. I'm in Baltimore. The radar over me finally looks good. I look outside. It's snowing, but not nearly as much as some light green returns from last night. What is going on?
  11. It's just shifted north. It's now inner harbor / BWI snowhole.
  12. Inner harbor no longer visible. Baltimore City band is extending a little south it would seem. snow_video_2019_01_13_15h_22m_52s.mov
  13. I think you guys will be fine somehow. I was on the northern edge of that snow hole for a little and it's just started snowing nicely here. I'll post a video in a second. I was waiting a good hour for that Ellicot city band to make it here though. It's coming and it'll be good.
  14. Finally rates are heavy enough that the snow has started to accumulate again on the southern edge of the Baltimore city snow band.