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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think the December’02 ice storm , was picked up 7+ days out, it’s not impossible 

Last years early December NC special was picked up way in advance as well, especially by the FV3.  Completely conned us about its reliability for the rest of the winter in terms of snowfall.

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

No snow for most on GFS runs, but at least there's no real warmth. If I cant get snow, I'll take seasonable with no torch.

Amen, brother. 

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A cutter for the first event wouldnt be the worst thing in the world because hopefully it would put down an arctic boundary and that would drive the next event. 

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30 minutes ago, Lookout said:

12z euro...:weenie:...

Looks icy at the end on the p-type/thickness maps with a 1034 parent high in Quebec.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

God I loathe these in and out cold snaps that are as quick as Barry Sanders, but I’ll take this 12z Euro hot dog run for now

November made me think this may be the year we slow things down and get some blocking, but then it evaporated.  Still rooting for your outlook though.  But maybe we should be prepared to deal with the in and out perfect timing quick hitters just the same. 

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

12z euro...:weenie:...

Drove the freezing rain all the way west to about Talladega! Wow

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I dont know how I could improve that storm except slow up the high. Below freezing highs the day before, negative dew points. 

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If we kept that look, I would expect a snowier solution(or at least sleet) for most of the piedmont in NC. You dont often see a freezing rain storm that stretches from BHM to RDU.

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34 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

If we kept that look, I would expect a snowier solution(or at least sleet) for most of the piedmont in NC. You dont often see a freezing rain storm that stretches from BHM to RDU.

That was my thoughts for the north GA mtns too. The switch to ice looks too fast to me for that setup. That high is fairly strong and the low isn't tracking inland along the gulf. We rarely ever see ice if there is ice all the way past Atlanta. Typically if we are getting ice, it's just plain rain in Atlanta. I don't doubt we would more than likely finish as ice as usual, but after the majority of precip has fallen as snow/sleet. 

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47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If that came to fruition, dust off your generators....

I'd rather hold off the crippling ice and have a classic SE storm where we all score something. Last time we had that, was 2014. Other than that, it's all been about, location, location, location... I.e. North of 85. 

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Who’s ready for an ice storm ? It’s showing up in the European model run today. Temps in the 20s and between 1.25 to 1.50 inches of freezing rain. This would be a week from tomorrow. I HIGHLY suggest you stay tuned and begin getting prepared. This COULD be a major ice event.

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597

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20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:
High-latitude N Pacific blocking, SE Canada vortex, & an active southern stream are the basic large-scale ingredients that favor wintry wx in the southern US & they might be in place next week. However, timing will ultimately determine if a there's a threat to begin with #ncwx
 
As normal around here :( But glad there is something track! 

 

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Euro has a strong shortwave moving into N.California/S.Oregon at day 4.

Into S.Arizona/N. Mexico at day 6 then into W.Texas at day 7 which produces the gulf low.  Ukie has this piece at day 3/4 but looks more sheared out as it moves south.Whether or not it runs right into a 1043 high remains to be seen but something to track.

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To compliment hailstorm's note....Assuming we get the tall western ridge and cold shot as advertised, here's what I'm seeing with the main wave in question off the west coast.  The GFS sucks it into the cold trough that is diving down.  The Euro's cold trough misses the wave, so it has a slower trek west to east across the south.  The UKMet is in between the 2.

At hr144 (Day 6), the GFS has the wave in W Kentucky (sucked into the cold trough)...the UKMet has the wave in W Texas....the winning ticket is the Euro which has the wave in NW Old Mexico.  Kind of fits with the old school bias of northern stream dominant with the GFS and slower/stronger southern stream with the Euro.

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9 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Be fun to have a possibility to track, love winter! :wub:

On the other hand, a major ice storm would be like kissing my sister.:yikes:

 

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12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Glen MF Burns 

 

 

EC91C91A-9091-49C3-9F9B-18106A82B35D.png

I agree, but isn't it just has irresponsible to say you won't see anything? I would rather say, "keep abreast to the latest, as much can and will change."

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6 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

I agree, but isn't it just has irresponsible to say you won't see anything? I would rather say, "keep abreast to the latest, as much can and will change."

Here is what she responded to.  My opinion is Burns jumped the gun.  He’s the chief meteorologist in a major city.    He could wait for at least a little more smoke before saying there may be a fire. 
 

66A8E141-79E3-48A3-8D24-DB24615163A1.jpeg

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Just waiting for lookout to pop in - he loves glen mf burns haha. It’s way too far out for me to bite but it looks like a good set up at this point. We haven’t had an ice storm like that in over 10 years 

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