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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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12z and 18z nam show very brief zr chances with Friday/Saturday system.  Mainly north and along I85/I77. Upstate SC and NC.

Before temps rise to the lovely 33-34 cold rain.

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

12z and 18z nam show very brief zr chances with Friday/Saturday system.  Mainly north and along I85/I77. Upstate SC and NC.

Before temps rise to the lovely 33-34 cold rain.

We're really good at getting 33 and rain. But honestly, for this time of year a cool rainy forecast is fine. 

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wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none.  :snowing:

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20 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none.  :snowing:

:ee:

I think we're all just being cautious and denying ourselves any excitement. "Wolf" has been cried too many times and the models have been too unreliable beyond a couple of days. We pretty much have to wait until cold is happening and snow is falling to have any confidence these days (unless you're over 3000 ft). :lol:

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Going to be a rough weekend on the coast...

A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds.
https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

Image may contain: text
 
 
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2 hours ago, Solak said:

Going to be a rough weekend on the coast...

A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds.
https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

Image may contain: text
 
 

They are predicting wind gusts in excess of 40 mph Saturday and Saturday night.

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2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:
GEFS is going full steam ahead for big cold again towards the end of November. This is likely in part driven by MJO propagation into colder phases 8-1-2. Some of our top tropical analogs support the GEFS idea. Better get used to the cold. #Energy #NatGas
 
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I was thinking that pink and green must be some BIG TIME cold until I saw the scale; green is only -3 c :lol:

Still, I'll take below normal anyway and anytime I can get it!:weenie:

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7 hours ago, Tacoma said:

wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none.  :snowing:

It's only mid-November. :)

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00z NAM and 00z RGEM both bring a lot of precip inland on Saturday into NC, while a very strong 1039'ish HP drops into the lakes and NE.  It's at least interesting.

TW

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7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I was thinking that pink and green must be some BIG TIME cold until I saw the scale; green is only -3 c :lol:

Still, I'll take below normal anyway and anytime I can get it!:weenie:

I thought the same thing.  It's a misleading tactic designed to be click bait.

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I would generally trust the NAM with this sort of scenario but I can’t find anything similar on any other model 

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13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I would generally trust the NAM with this sort of scenario but I can’t find anything similar on any other model 

3K not nearly as impressed.  The WRF ARW2 (as if the ARW1 isn't bad enough, so they needed a second one) is similar to the 12k NAM.  The GFS, CMC, RGEM, HRDPS, etc. are all out on this one.

Good thing is, if the latest LR data is right, we'll probably be able to legit start tracking stuff in a couple of weeks.

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The GFS has 925mb winds up to 65-72 knots offshore from Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras. The GFS 42-hour forecast shown here. These winds would be about 700m or 2300 ft above sea level.

SJxYGZa.jpg

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18z nam shifted the precip east. Will be interesting to follow tonight/tomorrow as the wedge builds in

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Gonna be fun chasing end of model runs blocking all winter! 

We’re doing this already?

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Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day  6.

Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

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8 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day  6.

Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

Hi nc. Will you do your mjo updates and where it currently is and where it going? You are very knowledgeable on that.

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11 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day  6.

Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

I've been noticing a potential system on the variations of models. Details not set in stone for sure.

Wouldn't rule out a southern slider being one solution. 

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Could be headed for our second below average November.  The November average at KGSP is 52.4 degress F.  November 2018 had an average of 47.8 degrees.  So far in 2019, we are averaging 47.7.  BTW... the record November low at KGSP is 11 degrees set on consecutive days in 1950.  The lowest monthly average was 43.2 in 1901. 

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp

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21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? 

Looks like there would be some stout ridging ahead of a really deep trough that tries to push in some arctic air.  The push doesn't look as strong as it did a couple runs ago, so need to keep watching.  

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^^Yeah not sure how everything's going to evolve. For Thanksgiving day, the GFS and euro would have below normal temps over a good portion of the SE; owing mainly to a CAD. The Canadian doesn't see this and is showing 60s/70s.    

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On 11/19/2019 at 9:54 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha...Now that winter kinda looked like what we had in 2015-15: Extreme blowtorch and a Christmas in the upper 60s/low 70s...and then an epic Blizzard in January. (That's why I was kinda excited when I saw that record because I wondered if the 70 degree Christmas in a strong niño correlation was gonna hold true again--because it also happened in 1982-83!)

feb 83 all of 77/78 good years to be a kidl. 10 yr old me remembers cnj thundersnow in feb 83

 

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6 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? 

Looks pretty boring for the next two weeks. Warming up over the week one period, that cooling but no cold. Too much rain showing up in my two week and not a single freeze. :thumbsdown:Hoping for a better pattern after mid Dec...

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