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Mr. Kevin

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Ne arkansas

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  1. Depending on strength of it. Stronger it is, blowtorch for everyone! No questions asked lol. I still feel if no stratwarm event materializes early on, it will be a long winter
  2. If it's going to be warm all winter, hopefully it stays warm. I would prefer cold, but with niña, its usually tough. We need alot of things to go our way for a colder outcome.
  3. Nothing we can do about it if it happens. I believe if we can get a weak pv early on, that may save a month of cold weather for us or close to it. We all just want one winter event
  4. Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come
  5. Carver, what about dec, jan, and feb? U got maps for those? Will be very difficult to get any sustained cold weather for November, outside the higher elevations imo.
  6. As you know raindance, we have seen weak niñas act like strong niñas and it was a blowtorch.
  7. Weaker the better for niña, especially where it's location will be in the Pacific. Of course Ray, i am just a novice compared to you, but typically a -qbo promotes blocking, but it does us no good if we aren't able to get that -wpo/epo combo during boreal winter. Am I off base or close to being correct? Lol
  8. Ray,can we get a -epo in a -pdo default pattern or is it really difficult? I guess that's why most hope we can get a taller aleutian ridge instead of flat
  9. So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based
  10. Ray, i guess we hope for the weaker the better for laniña to have a chance at a colder outcome for us.
  11. I have a question. Do you think we can get a more robust aleutian ridge to build up instead of the flat type, which doesn't bring any cold air to us this winter or is it too early to tell? I think last winter it was relatively flat and we depended on the ao/nao to get cold imo
  12. Its interesting we saw a -nao/ao most if not all last winter with a +qbo. Perhaps the SSW had something to do with it staying negative
  13. If that happens, we would get cold for a while. I believe we get cold early instead of later on. So many factors involved. Anyone making forecasts this early are completely guessing.
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