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Mr. Kevin

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Everything posted by Mr. Kevin

  1. JoeB and JoeD have a good gig with weatherbell for sure. They have to hype cold to get subscribers. I understand to an extent. I wonder if they sound more realistic on the videos on wxbell compared to Twitter or FB? They are smart people and I like JoeD better than JoeB but imo.
  2. I'm not as smart as you with charts, but what does this mean?
  3. Do you really believe we get a legitimate -epo? I think the standing wave would have to break down to get a great propagation of mjo in phase 7 instead of a weak version. Just my opinion
  4. Dont you think one model will fold in regards to mjo? They both adamant about what they indicating. In 17-18 winter, shortly after Christmas, it was a strong cold blast and my car battery went dead and had to get another one. Very cold air.
  5. Webber and masiello are smart as fook lol. I don't want a blowtorch all winter, but an east based nao wont help us. West based is key imo. I mentioned this recently but the standing wave has to break down for us to not blowtorch and be stuck in 4-6 phases all winter.
  6. Right now, we have the Epo and ao not in our favor for cold air. The SSW event we had last winter took 6-8 weeks to propagate correctly to the troposphere, but all SSW events aren't the same. We definitely need a fundamentally sound shift in the Pacific to really change the pattern among other things.
  7. Ray, I'm no expert like yourself, but two valid concerns on how rest of winter turns out. (1). Can standing wave break down to allow propagation for mjo into other phases besides 4-6 moving forward. (2). Will the epo and ao stay positive all winter? If that happens, it will be incredibly tough for it to get colder for any time. Hopefully we can get a change eventually whatever is needed.
  8. Like I mentioned, dont get excited when you see cold weather forecast because in this pattern, it's very transitory. If it happens. Just hope for one cold shot or possibly two at some point
  9. It would be nice to see two cold blasts this winter. To have a few opportunities at ice/snow. Fun to track when we get them
  10. If the mjo cant make it into 8 1 2 based on sst anomalies, we will need tremendous blocking or SSW event most likely
  11. I just don't consider November front loaded because it is not winter lol.
  12. So what is needed to happen to have some cold this winter and how realistic is it to happening? We don't want to be chasing unicorns all winter lol.
  13. If what you're saying is true, guess we hope they don't setup in warm phases for winter. The shorter wavelengths aren't giving us any cold weather with front loaded
  14. Do you think the standing wave would have to weaken before the mjo can propagate to other phases because if it dont and mjo stays in 4-6, it would be real warm all winter imo. Hopefully the standing wave will weaken
  15. I also feel Carver that if the mjo can make it past the standing wave, we should be in better shape moving forward. Bamwx mentioned that a few days ago.
  16. With a -pna its inevitable it warms here for a while. Unless u get strong - nao/ao couplet. Definitely needs some help from mother nature
  17. It's more that it's a dont believe so situation lol. We stay warm If and when we get a -nao/ao things may get colder imo. -Epo/wpo would help also.
  18. Carver, I guess we can stay optimistic, but in reality we got a long ways to go before any type of cold regime sets in. I'm rooting for it to happen, because most like winter weather and not warm weather all winter lol. I believe that it will be later in winter if we see anything other than a few cold days. Front loaded just dont see logical at this point imo. Would like to get a sustained cold pattern however way we can get it.
  19. We had a SSW event that overwhelmed everything last February
  20. In another forum, they are saying this split will be extremely brief, so dont get too hung up in it yet.
  21. JB is hyping a pv split at 50mb is underway right now leading to 84-85 type winter lol or similarities to it
  22. We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol
  23. Ray, what your thoughts on the easterly winds weakening to allow mjo to propagate correctly instead of hitting brick wall in warm phases Bamwx alludes to? Also, east based niña trending? Just trying to be optimistic
  24. We want all models on board to be more believable lol. I think euro was at one point. Last winter it took 6-8 weeks for it to happen but it was bad in February lol
  25. So far, the mjo charts look decent, other than bc ecmwf, which always concerns me lol. JB still hyping pv split lol. Mentioned 84-85 winter.
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