Mr. Kevin
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I saw a minor sleet and fzr event wed afternoon into midday Thursday. Wed afternoon it was bad here. We got heavy sleet and thunder at 28 degrees. Never saw thundersleet until then. No power outages but got about half inch sleet and quarter inch ice. I think the ao and nao will trend negative mid month due to strat stuff going on and maybe one last hoorah if we can get a ULL.
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I like your optimism. I personally don't want to see it because by the time it kicks in, it will be too late for most around here imo. Maybe help another stretch pv event soon
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Carver, I think the only way that happens is if the mjo gets in colder phases moving forward. If it quickly moves through the warm phases, then we may have another opportunity. I'd be fine with strong ULL.
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Mid march is a month from now and by then we would possibly see ULLs develop unless we have a big trough set up. ULL are big snow producers and it's been a while since my area has seen one.
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I would like it a little further nw for my area. I would take 2 inches snow to end winter, but will be optimistic for a little more.
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Carver, I've had 1inch snow and a moderate ice/sleet storm so far this winter. I guess about 1-2 inches sleet and just less than quarter inch ice with yesterdays event. I would like to get one decent snow event here before winter is over.
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Also I think something else contributing to colder pattern is the niña is completely east based which feeds an Alaskan ridge, -wpo pattern.
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Carver, we are under a winter storm warning now for .25-.50 inches ice and 1-2 inches sleet. Be ready for spring after this lol. Hopefully my area stays away from ice though
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Carver, did the 12z eps look cold also further in lala land? I heard it did but wanted your opinion also. Also, the way to continue or redevelop the cold pattern moving forward is to get the Pacific jet to extend instead of retract.
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I've been the unlucky one to only get maybe an inch of snow. If the pna isnt on roids, some may have the front come close and stall, but that's a long ways out. January was cold but winter weather was non existent unfortunately for my area
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Jeff, I hope the convection doesn't happen so we can keep the cold pattern going into February. Just being optimistic
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John, it definitely wasn't a +epo last February lol. Hopefully you had a typo lol. -ao was the main thing because it went extremely negative last February. Good to see
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If the alutian ridge is as strong as December, which pumped the -pna, its game over for the se imo. Hopefully that dont happen or something to override the mjo, like you alluded to.
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This may be a holston or john question. Is there anyway to avoid the mjo firing in phase 6 or is that off the table? Hopefully if it does happen, we can get a quick transition to other phases besides the "warm" phase
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Trough is too far east unfortunately right now. Hopefully that will change enough for us to have one winter storm this winter before we reverse back to mild again
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Carver, can you post the eps when u get a chance? Hopefully we dont get the mjo firing in phase 6 unless it goes quickly into phase 7 again. Reason I dont like laniña very much.
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Carver, you have updates on the ensembles moving forward?
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In 13-14 winter, the ao and nao were super positive all winter. Top 10 coldest winters ever btw
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If that was in feb 1994, it was probably the same system we dealt with earlier. We didnt get any bad weather in jan 1994 except maybe a few days cold.
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95-96 winter was good but not great in my location. Feb 1st or 2nd had the coldest temperature ever recorded in the USA of -55 degrees Fahrenheit in embarrass Minnesota and we had a big sleet and ice event. Easily half inch ice. Roads were so bad that me and my father walked 3 miles to the store and luckily a guy in a truck brought us back home. 93 94 had the major icestorm here in my area. Up to 8inches ice!! Was bad. I missed a week of school but I golfed everyday lol.
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Also you want Pacific extension and not retraction.
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Yes I agree. Definitely Alaska driven, which can deliver very cold air. 13-13 winter was Alaska driven all winter! Carver, you want the Pacific on your side regardless of anything else lol.
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I was only 5 at the time but from what I understand, it was really cold and stormy. That winter had a pv split and this winter has stretching of the pv at times.
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I believe it will depend on the epo, ao, and wpo. If they are forecast to trend negative, the likelihood is dramatically increased imo. A guy at storm2k mentioned about the dateline forcing and what is going on and that typically goes in with mod ninos. Just need cold air if the stk is going to be active
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Carver, would you agree or not that the models are hinting at a big arctic outbreak possibly mid-end of the .month? Just curious what u thought
